Super Bowl Commercial Predictions & Odds 2026

ARCHIVED
Updated 1 week ago · 7:41 PM PST

Thirty seconds of Super Bowl airtime costs more than $8 million this year, and prediction markets are letting traders bet on who's buying. Kalshi and Polymarket both offer contracts for brands expected to appear. Amazon Prime (100.0%), Hims & Hers {100.0%) and Liquid Death (100.0%) are considered locks with all three trading above 98%. Hims & Hers and Liquid Death are trending on Kalshi, while Coinbase sits at 70.3% and Anthropic remains a coin flip at 51.5%. We aggregate odds and volume, tracking probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison. Stats updated every 30 minutes.

Largest Spread
99.15%
Gemini
Consensus Leader
100.0%
Amazon Prime +42.5%
Total Volume (Share)
$31.5M
K: 94.7% P: 5.3%
Momentum Leader
+80.9%
Apple All-time change

Top promos for first time trades on Super Bowl ads

Period:
Platform:

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:
AP
Amazon Prime
Vol $738.4K Spread
Agg 100.0%
↑ +42.5%
K 100.0%
HH
Hims & Hers
Vol $539.4K Spread
Agg 100.0%
↑ +2.5%
K 100.0%
LD
Liquid Death
Vol $277.8K Spread
Agg 100.0%
↑ +1.5%
K 100.0%
NE
Netflix
Vol $1.3M Spread
Agg 100.0%
↑ +60.5%
K 100.0%
OP
OpenAI
Vol $598.3K Spread 0.0%
Agg 100.0%
↑ +3.0%
K 100.0%
P 100.0%
PE
Pepsi
Vol $249.7K Spread
Agg 100.0%
↑ +1.5%
K 100.0%
TM
T-Mobile
Vol $152.0K Spread
Agg 100.0%
↑ +8.5%
K 100.0%
TO
Toyota
Vol $50.8K Spread
Agg 100.0%
↑ +1.4%
P 100.0%
CO
Coinbase
Vol $1.5M Spread 0.0%
Agg 100.0%
↑ +30.2%
K 100.0%
P 100.0%
SF
State Farm
Vol $53.0K Spread
Agg 100.0%
↑ +1.1%
P 100.0%
GO
Google
Vol $56.2K Spread
Agg 99.8%
↑ +0.9%
P 99.8%
SA
Salesforce
Vol $22.7K Spread
Agg 99.8%
↑ +1.2%
P 99.8%
AM
Amazon
Vol $45.9K Spread
Agg 99.8%
↑ +1.9%
P 99.8%
GE
Gemini
Vol $259.9K Spread 99.2%
Agg 99.4%
↑ +8.9%
K 100.0%
P 0.9%
AP
Apple
Vol $164.5K Spread
Agg 98.9%
↑ +80.9%
P 98.9%
AN
Anthropic
Vol $15.2M Spread 99.0%
Agg 45.7%
↓ -3.3%
P 100.0%
K 1.0%
CC
Crypto.com
Vol $87.6K Spread
Agg 5.8%
↓ -7.8%
P 5.8%
XOX
xAI or X
Vol $52.0K Spread
Agg 5.1%
↓ -2.4%
P 5.1%
CC
Coca Cola
Vol $76.6K Spread
Agg 4.2%
↓ -4.8%
P 4.2%
RO
Robinhood
Vol $23.0K Spread
Agg 4.1%
↓ -16.4%
P 4.1%
NI
Nike
Vol $850.1K Spread
Agg 1.0%
↓ -8.5%
K 1.0%
VV
Verizon/Visible
Vol $36.2K Spread
Agg 1.0%
↓ -17.5%
P 1.0%
KR
Kraken
Vol $5.2K Spread
Agg 0.7%
↓ -5.3%
P 0.7%
PE
Perplexity
Vol $23.5K Spread
Agg 0.7%
↓ -16.8%
P 0.7%
RI
Ripple
Vol $11.0K Spread
Agg 0.7%
↓ -6.4%
P 0.7%
SO
Solana
Vol $5.8K Spread
Agg 0.6%
↓ -3.4%
P 0.6%
AL
Allstate
Vol $1.3M Spread 0.0%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -46.5%
P 0.5%
K 0.5%
AG
Athletic Greens
Vol $86.6K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -19.0%
K 0.5%
BL
BlueChew
Vol $145.5K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -19.0%
K 0.5%
DI
Disney+
Vol $407.7K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -80.5%
K 0.5%
DO
DoorDash
Vol $3.3M Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -13.0%
K 0.5%
GR
Grok
Vol $213.6K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -19.0%
K 0.5%
JE
Jeep
Vol $951.5K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -17.0%
K 0.5%
PA
Paramount+
Vol $817.0K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -53.5%
K 0.5%
PA
Perplexity AI
Vol $138.6K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -14.5%
K 0.5%
SH
SHEIN
Vol $36.9K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -19.0%
K 0.5%
SP
Spotify
Vol $229.0K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -29.0%
K 0.5%
TE
Temu
Vol $424.6K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -23.5%
K 0.5%
TE
Tesla
Vol $134.1K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -15.0%
K 0.5%
VU
Vuori
Vol $246.0K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -25.5%
K 0.5%
YE
Yeezy
Vol $204.9K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -12.0%
K 0.5%
ZY
Zyn
Vol $365.9K Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -4.0%
K 0.5%
NV
NVIDIA
Vol $117.0K Spread 0.2%
Agg 0.4%
↓ -12.6%
K 0.5%
P 0.4%
HY
Hyundai
Vol $31.1K Spread
Agg 0.4%
↓ -2.8%
P 0.4%
DE
DeepSeek
Vol $34.7K Spread
Agg 0.3%
↓ -2.1%
P 0.3%
PR
Progressive
Vol $16.3K Spread
Agg 0.2%
↓ -17.8%
P 0.2%
Outcome Aggregated Spread Volume Kalshi Polymarket
AP
Amazon Prime
100.0%
↑ +42.5%
$738.4K
Kalshi 100.0%
0–100¢ Vol $738.4K
Polymarket
HH
Hims & Hers
100.0%
↑ +2.5%
$539.4K
Kalshi 100.0%
0–100¢ Vol $539.4K
Polymarket
LD
Liquid Death
100.0%
↑ +1.5%
$277.8K
Kalshi 100.0%
0–100¢ Vol $277.8K
Polymarket
NE
Netflix
100.0%
↑ +60.5%
$1.3M
Kalshi 100.0%
0–100¢ Vol $1.3M
Polymarket
OP
OpenAI
100.0%
↑ +3.0%
0.0%
$598.3K
Kalshi 100.0%
0–100¢ Vol $496.0K
Polymarket 100.0%
99.9–100¢ Vol $102.2K
PE
Pepsi
100.0%
↑ +1.5%
$249.7K
Kalshi 100.0%
0–100¢ Vol $249.7K
Polymarket
TM
T-Mobile
100.0%
↑ +8.5%
$152.0K
Kalshi 100.0%
0–100¢ Vol $152.0K
Polymarket
TO
Toyota
100.0%
↑ +1.4%
$50.8K
Kalshi
Polymarket 100.0%
99.9–100¢ Vol $50.8K
CO
Coinbase
100.0%
↑ +30.2%
0.0%
$1.5M
Kalshi 100.0%
0–100¢ Vol $1.2M
Polymarket 100.0%
99.9–100¢ Vol $288.3K
SF
State Farm
100.0%
↑ +1.1%
$53.0K
Kalshi
Polymarket 100.0%
99.9–100¢ Vol $53.0K
GO
Google
99.8%
↑ +0.9%
$56.2K
Kalshi
Polymarket 99.8%
99.6–100¢ Vol $56.2K
SA
Salesforce
99.8%
↑ +1.2%
$22.7K
Kalshi
Polymarket 99.8%
99.5–100¢ Vol $22.7K
AM
Amazon
99.8%
↑ +1.9%
$45.9K
Kalshi
Polymarket 99.8%
99.5–100¢ Vol $45.9K
GE
Gemini
99.4%
↑ +8.9%
99.2%
$259.9K
Kalshi 100.0%
0–100¢ Vol $245.6K
Polymarket 0.9%
0.2–1.5¢ Vol $14.2K
AP
Apple
98.9%
↑ +80.9%
$164.5K
Kalshi
Polymarket 98.9%
98.4–99.4¢ Vol $164.5K
AN
Anthropic
45.7%
↓ -3.3%
99.0%
$15.2M
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $14.8M
Polymarket 100.0%
99.9–100¢ Vol $397.7K
CC
Crypto.com
5.8%
↓ -7.8%
$87.6K
Kalshi
Polymarket 5.8%
3.5–8¢ Vol $87.6K
XOX
xAI or X
5.1%
↓ -2.4%
$52.0K
Kalshi
Polymarket 5.1%
1.2–9¢ Vol $52.0K
CC
Coca Cola
4.2%
↓ -4.8%
$76.6K
Kalshi
Polymarket 4.2%
0.5–7.9¢ Vol $76.6K
RO
Robinhood
4.1%
↓ -16.4%
$23.0K
Kalshi
Polymarket 4.1%
0.3–7.9¢ Vol $23.0K
NI
Nike
1.0%
↓ -8.5%
$850.1K
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $850.1K
Polymarket
VV
Verizon/Visible
1.0%
↓ -17.5%
$36.2K
Kalshi
Polymarket 1.0%
0.1–1.9¢ Vol $36.2K
KR
Kraken
0.7%
↓ -5.3%
$5.2K
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.7%
0.1–1.3¢ Vol $5.2K
PE
Perplexity
0.7%
↓ -16.8%
$23.5K
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.7%
0.3–1¢ Vol $23.5K
RI
Ripple
0.7%
↓ -6.4%
$11.0K
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.7%
0.1–1.2¢ Vol $11.0K
SO
Solana
0.6%
↓ -3.4%
$5.8K
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.6%
0.2–1¢ Vol $5.8K
AL
Allstate
0.5%
↓ -46.5%
0.0%
$1.3M
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $1.2M
Polymarket 0.5%
0.1–1¢ Vol $71.6K
AG
Athletic Greens
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
$86.6K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $86.6K
Polymarket
BL
BlueChew
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
$145.5K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $145.5K
Polymarket
DI
Disney+
0.5%
↓ -80.5%
$407.7K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $407.7K
Polymarket
DO
DoorDash
0.5%
↓ -13.0%
$3.3M
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $3.3M
Polymarket
GR
Grok
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
$213.6K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $213.6K
Polymarket
JE
Jeep
0.5%
↓ -17.0%
$951.5K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $951.5K
Polymarket
PA
Paramount+
0.5%
↓ -53.5%
$817.0K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $817.0K
Polymarket
PA
Perplexity AI
0.5%
↓ -14.5%
$138.6K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $138.6K
Polymarket
SH
SHEIN
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
$36.9K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $36.9K
Polymarket
SP
Spotify
0.5%
↓ -29.0%
$229.0K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $229.0K
Polymarket
TE
Temu
0.5%
↓ -23.5%
$424.6K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $424.6K
Polymarket
TE
Tesla
0.5%
↓ -15.0%
$134.1K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $134.1K
Polymarket
VU
Vuori
0.5%
↓ -25.5%
$246.0K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $246.0K
Polymarket
YE
Yeezy
0.5%
↓ -12.0%
$204.9K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $204.9K
Polymarket
ZY
Zyn
0.5%
↓ -4.0%
$365.9K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $365.9K
Polymarket
NV
NVIDIA
0.4%
↓ -12.6%
0.2%
$117.0K
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $103.2K
Polymarket 0.4%
0.2–0.5¢ Vol $13.9K
HY
Hyundai
0.4%
↓ -2.8%
$31.1K
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.4%
0.1–0.6¢ Vol $31.1K
DE
DeepSeek
0.3%
↓ -2.1%
$34.7K
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.5¢ Vol $34.7K
PR
Progressive
0.2%
↓ -17.8%
$16.3K
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.2%
0.1–0.2¢ Vol $16.3K

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings
Outcome:
Aggregated (VWAP)
Volume
Kalshi
Polymarket
Cross-Venue Spread

Super Bowl LX advertisers: confirmed brands 

NBC Universal has sold out its ad inventory for Super Bowl LX, with 30-second spots reaching $8 to $10 million. The list of confirmed advertisers includes: 

Budweiser (Confirmed)Bud Light (Confirmed)Michelob Ultra (Confirmed)
Instacart (Confirmed)Pepsi Zero Sugar (Confirmed)Dunkin’ (Confirmed)
Uber Eats (Confirmed)Hellmann’s (Confirmed)Pringles (Confirmed)
Toyota (Confirmed)Cadillac (Confirmed)Oikos (Confirmed)
Liquid I.V. (Confirmed)Squarespace (Confirmed)He Gets Us (Confirmed)
SVEDKA Vodka (Confirmed)Kinder Bueno (Confirmed)State Farm (Confirmed)
OpenAI (Confirmed)Dove (Confirmed)TurboTax (Confirmed)
Lay’s (Confirmed)WeatherTech (Confirmed)Google (Unconfirmed)
Salesforce (Unconfirmed)Liquid Death (Unconfirmed)Amazon (Unconfirmed)
Hims & Hers (Unconfirmed)T-Mobile (Unconfirmed)Gemini (Unconfirmed)
Disney+ (Unconfirmed)Coinbase (Unconfirmed)Amazon Prime (Unconfirmed)
Paramount+ (Unconfirmed)Anthropic (Unconfirmed)Allstate (Unconfirmed)
Netflix (Unconfirmed)Spotify (Unconfirmed)Temu (Unconfirmed)
Robinhood (Unconfirmed)Verizon/Visible (Unconfirmed)Progressive (Unconfirmed)
Jeep (Unconfirmed)

Who’s sitting out

Nike will not air a Super Bowl ad this year after returning to the game last year following a 27-year absence.

How this market resolves

Kalshi: Kalshi’s market asks “Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Pro Football Championship?”. Your contract resolves to “Yes” if the listed company runs one or more advertisements during the national broadcast of Super Bowl LX on Fox. The advertisement must air between kickoff and the final whistle to qualify.

Resolution criteria allows co-funded or co-branded ads for all listed companies involved. Brands at least 50% owned by a listed company count for the parent (e.g., Beats counts for Apple). The resolution source is the official broadcast of Super Bowl LX, with consensus of credible reporting as backup.

Kalshi charges trading fees up to 2% per contract, with lower fees at probability extremes. Deposits via ACH are free; debit cards incur a 2% deposit fee and $2 withdrawal fee.

Polymarket: Polymarket’s market asks “Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?”. Your contract resolves to “Yes” if the brand airs a qualifying advertisement during the broadcast. Qualifying ads include commercials featuring the brand, sponsorship segments clearly identifying the brand (e.g., “This halftime show brought to you by…”), or branded content integration with prominent display. The ad must occur after kickoff and before regulation time (or overtime) ends.

Stadium signage without dedicated airtime, pre-game ads, post-game ads, streaming-only ads, regional ads, and parent company ads without specific brand identification do not qualify. Co-branded advertisements with equal billing count as qualifying. Resolution sources will include NFL, CBS Sports, NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ABC Sports, ESPN, The New York Times, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Ad Age, Marketing Land, Sports Business Journal, USA Today, CNN, and STAT News.

Polymarket’s global exchange charges no trading fees on most markets, though standard blockchain gas fees apply for deposits and withdrawals. The upcoming Polymarket US exchange will charge 0.01% per trade.

Key difference: Polymarket explicitly includes sponsorship segments and branded integrations beyond traditional commercials. Kalshi’s rules are more narrowly focused on advertisements only.

More Super Bowl markets

Super Bowl OddsHalftime Performer Odds
NFL Mention MarketsPrediction Market Promos
Super Bowl MVP oddsSuper Bowl squares
Who Will Attend the Super BowlBad Bunny First Song

Prediction market angle

Kalshi and Polymarket both run markets asking which brands will advertise during the game. The combined volume for this market has exceeded $2.1 million, though these markets carry unique risks.

Brands that have publicly confirmed plans trade near certainty. Examples of this include OpenAI at 97-98% after the Wall Street Journal reported its ad buy. Google and Liquid Death both trade at 99% following confirmations to industry publications. These near-certain outcomes function as low-yield “bonds” in prediction markets.

As with other markets, Super Bowl ads run a risk for information leaks. Hundreds of employees at any given company know whether their employer is running a spot before it’s publicly announced. Kalshi prohibits insider trading in its rulebook, but enforcement is difficult to verify. Polymarket’s global exchange has no such restrictions.

CNBC reported that Spotify’s odds on Kalshi spiked from $0.35 to $0.69 on January 19 before settling back down, a pattern consistent with potential insider activity. As of this writing, Spotify “Yes” is trading at 29.5%.

NFL bans prediction markets from advertising

In an ironic twist, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket can advertise during the game. The NFL added prediction markets to its “prohibited categories” list alongside tobacco, pornography and firearms, citing concerns about market manipulation and lack of regulatory safeguards. DraftKings and FanDuel will run sportsbook ads, but their prediction market products cannot be mentioned.

Super Bowl ad history (2016-2026)

BrandLast 10 years
State Farm2020, 2021, 2024, 2026
Google2017, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Toyota2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026
Salesforce2022, 2025, 2026
Liquid Death2025, 2026
Pepsi2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2026
Amazon2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025
Hims & Hers2024, 2026
OpenAI2025, 2026
T-Mobile2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Gemini (Google)2024, 2025
Disney+2022, 2024, 2025
Coinbase2022
Amazon Prime2022
Paramount+2019, 2021, 2023
AnthropicNever advertised
Allstate2021
Netflix2017, 2018, 2022, 2023
SpotifyNever advertised
Temu2024, 2025
Verizon/Visible2017, 2021, 2022, 2024
Progressive2020, 2024
Jeep2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2025

Our source information is reviewed periodically to ensure accuracy, with dates noted of the last change.

About The Author
Author Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle Shepstone
Cheryle is Director of Content and Strategy at DeFi Rate. She oversees the prediction market research, platform reviews, and editorial methodology behind every guide—from primary source verification through final fact-check. Before DeFi Rate, she led content and growth strategy at Catena Media, where she helped shape content and revenue strategy for regulated and financial markets. She has 20 years of experience in research and marketing strategy