Super Bowl Commercial Predictions & Odds 2026
Thirty seconds of Super Bowl airtime costs more than $8 million this year, and prediction markets are letting traders bet on who's buying. Kalshi and Polymarket both offer contracts for brands expected to appear. Amazon Prime (100.0%), Hims & Hers {100.0%) and Liquid Death (100.0%) are considered locks with all three trading above 98%. Hims & Hers and Liquid Death are trending on Kalshi, while Coinbase sits at 70.3% and Anthropic remains a coin flip at 51.5%. We aggregate odds and volume, tracking probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket with arbitrage detection and venue comparison. Stats updated every 30 minutes.
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Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
AP
Amazon Prime
Vol $738.4K
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +42.5%
K
100.0%
HH
Hims & Hers
Vol $539.4K
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +2.5%
K
100.0%
LD
Liquid Death
Vol $277.8K
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +1.5%
K
100.0%
NE
Netflix
Vol $1.3M
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +60.5%
K
100.0%
OP
OpenAI
Vol $598.3K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
100.0%
↑ +3.0%
K
100.0%
P
100.0%
PE
Pepsi
Vol $249.7K
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +1.5%
K
100.0%
TM
T-Mobile
Vol $152.0K
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +8.5%
K
100.0%
TO
Toyota
Vol $50.8K
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +1.4%
P
100.0%
CO
Coinbase
Vol $1.5M
Spread 0.0%
Agg
100.0%
↑ +30.2%
K
100.0%
P
100.0%
SF
State Farm
Vol $53.0K
Spread —
Agg
100.0%
↑ +1.1%
P
100.0%
GO
Google
Vol $56.2K
Spread —
Agg
99.8%
↑ +0.9%
P
99.8%
SA
Salesforce
Vol $22.7K
Spread —
Agg
99.8%
↑ +1.2%
P
99.8%
AM
Amazon
Vol $45.9K
Spread —
Agg
99.8%
↑ +1.9%
P
99.8%
GE
Gemini
Vol $259.9K
Spread 99.2%
Agg
99.4%
↑ +8.9%
K
100.0%
P
0.9%
AP
Apple
Vol $164.5K
Spread —
Agg
98.9%
↑ +80.9%
P
98.9%
AN
Anthropic
Vol $15.2M
Spread 99.0%
Agg
45.7%
↓ -3.3%
P
100.0%
K
1.0%
CC
Crypto.com
Vol $87.6K
Spread —
Agg
5.8%
↓ -7.8%
P
5.8%
XOX
xAI or X
Vol $52.0K
Spread —
Agg
5.1%
↓ -2.4%
P
5.1%
CC
Coca Cola
Vol $76.6K
Spread —
Agg
4.2%
↓ -4.8%
P
4.2%
RO
Robinhood
Vol $23.0K
Spread —
Agg
4.1%
↓ -16.4%
P
4.1%
NI
Nike
Vol $850.1K
Spread —
Agg
1.0%
↓ -8.5%
K
1.0%
VV
Verizon/Visible
Vol $36.2K
Spread —
Agg
1.0%
↓ -17.5%
P
1.0%
KR
Kraken
Vol $5.2K
Spread —
Agg
0.7%
↓ -5.3%
P
0.7%
PE
Perplexity
Vol $23.5K
Spread —
Agg
0.7%
↓ -16.8%
P
0.7%
RI
Ripple
Vol $11.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.7%
↓ -6.4%
P
0.7%
SO
Solana
Vol $5.8K
Spread —
Agg
0.6%
↓ -3.4%
P
0.6%
AL
Allstate
Vol $1.3M
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.5%
↓ -46.5%
P
0.5%
K
0.5%
AG
Athletic Greens
Vol $86.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
K
0.5%
BL
BlueChew
Vol $145.5K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
K
0.5%
DI
Disney+
Vol $407.7K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -80.5%
K
0.5%
DO
DoorDash
Vol $3.3M
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -13.0%
K
0.5%
GR
Grok
Vol $213.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
K
0.5%
JE
Jeep
Vol $951.5K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -17.0%
K
0.5%
PA
Paramount+
Vol $817.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -53.5%
K
0.5%
PA
Perplexity AI
Vol $138.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -14.5%
K
0.5%
SH
SHEIN
Vol $36.9K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
K
0.5%
SP
Spotify
Vol $229.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -29.0%
K
0.5%
TE
Temu
Vol $424.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -23.5%
K
0.5%
TE
Tesla
Vol $134.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -15.0%
K
0.5%
VU
Vuori
Vol $246.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -25.5%
K
0.5%
YE
Yeezy
Vol $204.9K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -12.0%
K
0.5%
ZY
Zyn
Vol $365.9K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -4.0%
K
0.5%
NV
NVIDIA
Vol $117.0K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.4%
↓ -12.6%
K
0.5%
P
0.4%
HY
Hyundai
Vol $31.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.4%
↓ -2.8%
P
0.4%
DE
DeepSeek
Vol $34.7K
Spread —
Agg
0.3%
↓ -2.1%
P
0.3%
PR
Progressive
Vol $16.3K
Spread —
Agg
0.2%
↓ -17.8%
P
0.2%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AP
Amazon Prime
|
100.0%
↑ +42.5%
|
—
|
$738.4K
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
HH
Hims & Hers
|
100.0%
↑ +2.5%
|
—
|
$539.4K
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
LD
Liquid Death
|
100.0%
↑ +1.5%
|
—
|
$277.8K
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
NE
Netflix
|
100.0%
↑ +60.5%
|
—
|
$1.3M
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
OP
OpenAI
|
100.0%
↑ +3.0%
|
0.0%
|
$598.3K
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
PE
Pepsi
|
100.0%
↑ +1.5%
|
—
|
$249.7K
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
TM
T-Mobile
|
100.0%
↑ +8.5%
|
—
|
$152.0K
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
TO
Toyota
|
100.0%
↑ +1.4%
|
—
|
$50.8K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
CO
Coinbase
|
100.0%
↑ +30.2%
|
0.0%
|
$1.5M
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
SF
State Farm
|
100.0%
↑ +1.1%
|
—
|
$53.0K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
GO
Google
|
99.8%
↑ +0.9%
|
—
|
$56.2K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
99.8%
|
|
SA
Salesforce
|
99.8%
↑ +1.2%
|
—
|
$22.7K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
99.8%
|
|
AM
Amazon
|
99.8%
↑ +1.9%
|
—
|
$45.9K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
99.8%
|
|
GE
Gemini
|
99.4%
↑ +8.9%
|
99.2%
|
$259.9K
|
Kalshi
100.0%
|
Polymarket
0.9%
|
|
AP
Apple
|
98.9%
↑ +80.9%
|
—
|
$164.5K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
98.9%
|
|
AN
Anthropic
|
45.7%
↓ -3.3%
|
99.0%
|
$15.2M
|
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Polymarket
100.0%
|
|
CC
Crypto.com
|
5.8%
↓ -7.8%
|
—
|
$87.6K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
5.8%
|
|
XOX
xAI or X
|
5.1%
↓ -2.4%
|
—
|
$52.0K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
5.1%
|
|
CC
Coca Cola
|
4.2%
↓ -4.8%
|
—
|
$76.6K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
4.2%
|
|
RO
Robinhood
|
4.1%
↓ -16.4%
|
—
|
$23.0K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
4.1%
|
|
NI
Nike
|
1.0%
↓ -8.5%
|
—
|
$850.1K
|
Kalshi
1.0%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
VV
Verizon/Visible
|
1.0%
↓ -17.5%
|
—
|
$36.2K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.0%
|
|
KR
Kraken
|
0.7%
↓ -5.3%
|
—
|
$5.2K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.7%
|
|
PE
Perplexity
|
0.7%
↓ -16.8%
|
—
|
$23.5K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.7%
|
|
RI
Ripple
|
0.7%
↓ -6.4%
|
—
|
$11.0K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.7%
|
|
SO
Solana
|
0.6%
↓ -3.4%
|
—
|
$5.8K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.6%
|
|
AL
Allstate
|
0.5%
↓ -46.5%
|
0.0%
|
$1.3M
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.5%
|
|
AG
Athletic Greens
|
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
|
—
|
$86.6K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
BL
BlueChew
|
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
|
—
|
$145.5K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
DI
Disney+
|
0.5%
↓ -80.5%
|
—
|
$407.7K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
DO
DoorDash
|
0.5%
↓ -13.0%
|
—
|
$3.3M
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
GR
Grok
|
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
|
—
|
$213.6K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
JE
Jeep
|
0.5%
↓ -17.0%
|
—
|
$951.5K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
PA
Paramount+
|
0.5%
↓ -53.5%
|
—
|
$817.0K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
PA
Perplexity AI
|
0.5%
↓ -14.5%
|
—
|
$138.6K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
SH
SHEIN
|
0.5%
↓ -19.0%
|
—
|
$36.9K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
SP
Spotify
|
0.5%
↓ -29.0%
|
—
|
$229.0K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
TE
Temu
|
0.5%
↓ -23.5%
|
—
|
$424.6K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
TE
Tesla
|
0.5%
↓ -15.0%
|
—
|
$134.1K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
VU
Vuori
|
0.5%
↓ -25.5%
|
—
|
$246.0K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
YE
Yeezy
|
0.5%
↓ -12.0%
|
—
|
$204.9K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
ZY
Zyn
|
0.5%
↓ -4.0%
|
—
|
$365.9K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
—
|
|
NV
NVIDIA
|
0.4%
↓ -12.6%
|
0.2%
|
$117.0K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
|
HY
Hyundai
|
0.4%
↓ -2.8%
|
—
|
$31.1K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
|
DE
DeepSeek
|
0.3%
↓ -2.1%
|
—
|
$34.7K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
|
PR
Progressive
|
0.2%
↓ -17.8%
|
—
|
$16.3K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Probability Over Time
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Super Bowl LX advertisers: confirmed brands
NBC Universal has sold out its ad inventory for Super Bowl LX, with 30-second spots reaching $8 to $10 million. The list of confirmed advertisers includes:
| Budweiser (Confirmed) | Bud Light (Confirmed) | Michelob Ultra (Confirmed) |
| Instacart (Confirmed) | Pepsi Zero Sugar (Confirmed) | Dunkin’ (Confirmed) |
| Uber Eats (Confirmed) | Hellmann’s (Confirmed) | Pringles (Confirmed) |
| Toyota (Confirmed) | Cadillac (Confirmed) | Oikos (Confirmed) |
| Liquid I.V. (Confirmed) | Squarespace (Confirmed) | He Gets Us (Confirmed) |
| SVEDKA Vodka (Confirmed) | Kinder Bueno (Confirmed) | State Farm (Confirmed) |
| OpenAI (Confirmed) | Dove (Confirmed) | TurboTax (Confirmed) |
| Lay’s (Confirmed) | WeatherTech (Confirmed) | Google (Unconfirmed) |
| Salesforce (Unconfirmed) | Liquid Death (Unconfirmed) | Amazon (Unconfirmed) |
| Hims & Hers (Unconfirmed) | T-Mobile (Unconfirmed) | Gemini (Unconfirmed) |
| Disney+ (Unconfirmed) | Coinbase (Unconfirmed) | Amazon Prime (Unconfirmed) |
| Paramount+ (Unconfirmed) | Anthropic (Unconfirmed) | Allstate (Unconfirmed) |
| Netflix (Unconfirmed) | Spotify (Unconfirmed) | Temu (Unconfirmed) |
| Robinhood (Unconfirmed) | Verizon/Visible (Unconfirmed) | Progressive (Unconfirmed) |
| Jeep (Unconfirmed) |
Who’s sitting out
Nike will not air a Super Bowl ad this year after returning to the game last year following a 27-year absence.
How this market resolves
Kalshi: Kalshi’s market asks “Which companies will run ads during the 2026 Pro Football Championship?”. Your contract resolves to “Yes” if the listed company runs one or more advertisements during the national broadcast of Super Bowl LX on Fox. The advertisement must air between kickoff and the final whistle to qualify.
Resolution criteria allows co-funded or co-branded ads for all listed companies involved. Brands at least 50% owned by a listed company count for the parent (e.g., Beats counts for Apple). The resolution source is the official broadcast of Super Bowl LX, with consensus of credible reporting as backup.
Kalshi charges trading fees up to 2% per contract, with lower fees at probability extremes. Deposits via ACH are free; debit cards incur a 2% deposit fee and $2 withdrawal fee.
Polymarket: Polymarket’s market asks “Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?”. Your contract resolves to “Yes” if the brand airs a qualifying advertisement during the broadcast. Qualifying ads include commercials featuring the brand, sponsorship segments clearly identifying the brand (e.g., “This halftime show brought to you by…”), or branded content integration with prominent display. The ad must occur after kickoff and before regulation time (or overtime) ends.
Stadium signage without dedicated airtime, pre-game ads, post-game ads, streaming-only ads, regional ads, and parent company ads without specific brand identification do not qualify. Co-branded advertisements with equal billing count as qualifying. Resolution sources will include NFL, CBS Sports, NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ABC Sports, ESPN, The New York Times, Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Ad Age, Marketing Land, Sports Business Journal, USA Today, CNN, and STAT News.
Polymarket’s global exchange charges no trading fees on most markets, though standard blockchain gas fees apply for deposits and withdrawals. The upcoming Polymarket US exchange will charge 0.01% per trade.
Key difference: Polymarket explicitly includes sponsorship segments and branded integrations beyond traditional commercials. Kalshi’s rules are more narrowly focused on advertisements only.
More Super Bowl markets
| Super Bowl Odds | Halftime Performer Odds |
| NFL Mention Markets | Prediction Market Promos |
| Super Bowl MVP odds | Super Bowl squares |
| Who Will Attend the Super Bowl | Bad Bunny First Song |
Prediction market angle
Kalshi and Polymarket both run markets asking which brands will advertise during the game. The combined volume for this market has exceeded $2.1 million, though these markets carry unique risks.
Brands that have publicly confirmed plans trade near certainty. Examples of this include OpenAI at 97-98% after the Wall Street Journal reported its ad buy. Google and Liquid Death both trade at 99% following confirmations to industry publications. These near-certain outcomes function as low-yield “bonds” in prediction markets.
As with other markets, Super Bowl ads run a risk for information leaks. Hundreds of employees at any given company know whether their employer is running a spot before it’s publicly announced. Kalshi prohibits insider trading in its rulebook, but enforcement is difficult to verify. Polymarket’s global exchange has no such restrictions.
CNBC reported that Spotify’s odds on Kalshi spiked from $0.35 to $0.69 on January 19 before settling back down, a pattern consistent with potential insider activity. As of this writing, Spotify “Yes” is trading at 29.5%.
NFL bans prediction markets from advertising
In an ironic twist, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket can advertise during the game. The NFL added prediction markets to its “prohibited categories” list alongside tobacco, pornography and firearms, citing concerns about market manipulation and lack of regulatory safeguards. DraftKings and FanDuel will run sportsbook ads, but their prediction market products cannot be mentioned.
Super Bowl ad history (2016-2026)
| Brand | Last 10 years |
|---|---|
| State Farm | 2020, 2021, 2024, 2026 |
| 2017, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | |
| Toyota | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026 |
| Salesforce | 2022, 2025, 2026 |
| Liquid Death | 2025, 2026 |
| Pepsi | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2026 |
| Amazon | 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2025 |
| Hims & Hers | 2024, 2026 |
| OpenAI | 2025, 2026 |
| T-Mobile | 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 |
| Gemini (Google) | 2024, 2025 |
| Disney+ | 2022, 2024, 2025 |
| Coinbase | 2022 |
| Amazon Prime | 2022 |
| Paramount+ | 2019, 2021, 2023 |
| Anthropic | Never advertised |
| Allstate | 2021 |
| Netflix | 2017, 2018, 2022, 2023 |
| Spotify | Never advertised |
| Temu | 2024, 2025 |
| Verizon/Visible | 2017, 2021, 2022, 2024 |
| Progressive | 2020, 2024 |
| Jeep | 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2025 |
Our source information is reviewed periodically to ensure accuracy, with dates noted of the last change.
- “2026 Super Bowl Advertisers.” iSpot. Accessed February 3, 2026. https://www.ispot.tv/events/2026-super-bowl-advertisers
- “Super Bowl Commercials 2026: All the Ads and Teasers We’ve Seen So Far.” Tom’s Guide. Accessed February 3, 2026. https://www.tomsguide.com/entertainment/streaming/super-bowl-commercials-2026-all-the-ads-and-teasers-weve-seen-so-far
- “2026 Super Bowl Ad Cost Reaches Staggering Amount.” Sportsnaut. Accessed February 3, 2026. https://sportsnaut.com/nfl/2026-super-bowl-ad-cost-10-million
- “Super Bowl Ad Prediction Market Contracts.” CNBC. January 30, 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/super-bowl-ad-prediction-market-contracts.html
