Economic Prediction Markets
The most-traded economics markets
Economics markets traded $3.9M on Kalshi, Polymarket and Rothera in the last 24 hours, down 9% from the 24 hours before. The most traded was “Fed Decision in October?” on Polymarket, with $1.1M. Polymarket traders make No change the favorite at 95%, ahead of 25 bps increase at 5.5%.
Down 9%vs. the 24 hours before
Kalshi $2.5M · Polymarket $1.3M · Rothera $37K
Kalshi $25M · Polymarket US $230K
Kalshi 5,393 · Polymarket 898 · Polymarket US 236 · Rothera 35
$1.1M traded
Markets with odds on DeFi Rate open their page; the rest open the venue.
10 rows shown
| Market | Top outcomes | |
|---|---|---|
| 1Fed Decision in October?Polymarket · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | No change 95% · 25 bps increase 5.5% | $15M |
| 2Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Fed maintains rate 93% · Hike 25bps 6.5% | $5.6M |
| 1Fed Decision in October?Polymarket · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | No change 95% · 25 bps increase 5.5% | $4.6M |
| 3Fed Decision in December?Polymarket | 25 bps increase 74% · No change 22% | $1.4M |
| 2Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Fed maintains rate 93% · Hike 25bps 6.5% | $1.4M |
| 4Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 12% | $1.3M |
| 1Fed Decision in October?Polymarket · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | No change 95% · 25 bps increase 5.5% | $1.1M |
| 3US gas prices this weekKalshi · Closes Oct 25, 2026 | Above 4.1000 99% · Above 4.1200 99%Quote from Oct 24, 9:40 AM ET | $911K |
| 5US gas prices this weekKalshi · Closes Oct 25, 2026 | Above 4.1000 99% · Above 4.1200 99%Quote from Oct 24, 9:40 AM ET | $907K |
| 6Largest Company end of December 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | NVIDIA 59% · Apple 39% | $688K |
| 7Gas prices in the US in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 30, 2026 | Above 2.50 99% · Above 2.60 99%Quote from Oct 24, 9:40 AM ET | $507K |
| 8How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | 0 (0 bps) 96% · 1 (25 bps) 1.4%Quote from Oct 24, 6:07 AM ET | $500K |
| 9Fed Decision in January?Polymarket | No change 68% · 25 bps increase 29% | $392K |
| 4Fed Decision in December?Polymarket | 25 bps increase 74% · No change 22% | $373K |
| 5Gas prices in the US in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 30, 2026 | Above 2.50 99% · Above 2.60 99%Quote from Oct 24, 9:40 AM ET | $259K |
| 6Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | Yes 12% | $180K |
| 7New Jersey gas price at year-end 2026Kalshi · Closes Dec 30, 2026 | Above 3.7000 98% · Above 3.9000 74% | $176K |
| 8Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Hike 25bps 81% · Maintains rate 19% | $157K |
| 9Fed Decision in January?Polymarket | No change 68% · 25 bps increase 29% | $149K |
| 2US gas prices this weekKalshi · Closes Oct 25, 2026 | Above 4.1000 99% · Above 4.1200 99%Quote from Oct 24, 9:40 AM ET | $130K |
| 3Fed decision in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 28, 2026 | Fed maintains rate 93% · Hike 25bps 6.5% | $124K |
| 4US gas prices tomorrowKalshi · Closes Oct 24, 2026 | Above 4.2550 99% · Above 4.2600 99% | $62K |
| 5Gas prices in the US in Oct 2026?Kalshi · Closes Oct 30, 2026 | Above 2.50 99% · Above 2.60 99%Quote from Oct 24, 9:40 AM ET | $45K |
| 6Fed Decision in December?Polymarket | 25 bps increase 74% · No change 22% | $26K |
| 7Alabama gas prices tomorrowKalshi · Closes Oct 24, 2026 | Above 3.7900 99% · Above 3.8000 99%Quote from Oct 24, 9:41 AM ET | $20K |
| 8Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket | Yes 75% | $20K |
| 9New Jersey gas price at year-end 2026Kalshi · Closes Dec 30, 2026 | Above 3.7000 98% · Above 3.9000 74% | $19K |
| 10How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?Polymarket · Closes Dec 31, 2026 | 5.3% 40% · 5.4% 20%Quote from Oct 24, 6:08 AM ET | $19K |
Source: Gemini / Kalshi / Polymarket / Polymarket US / Rothera via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 24, 10:30 AM ET; events ranked by volume, chances observed between Oct 24, 6:07 AM and 11:17 AM ET. A chance is the midpoint of the bid and ask, the last trade or the venue’s displayed price, as DeFi Rate’s market data reports it.
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Source: DraftKings Predictions / Gemini / Kalshi / Novig / Polymarket / Polymarket US / ProphetX / Rothera / Underdog Exchange via DeFi Rate: volume by category as of Oct 24, 10:30 AM ET.