Economics Prediction Markets: Policy, Commodities, Trade
24H Volume
$3.5M
Kalshi
39.4%
Polymarket
60.5%
Polymarket US
<0.1%
Active Markets
3,862
Kalshi
3,388
Polymarket
453
Polymarket US
21
Open Interest
Approx. OI
$13.2M
Kalshi
—
Polymarket
$12.9M
Polymarket US
$328.0K
Top Market (24H)
$463.7K
Fed Decision in June?
Today's Top Markets by Volume
Fed Decision in June?
WTB
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting
98.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting
1.0%
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
MR
Maintain rate
97.0%
C2
Cut 25bps
3.0%
H2
Hike 25bps
1.0%
C2
Cut >25bps
1.0%
H2
Hike >25bps
1.0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
85
$85
61.0%
80
$80
34.0%
105
$105
34.0%
110
$110
22.0%
115
$115
16.0%
120
$120
10.0%
70
$70
6.0%
130
$130
5.0%
140
$140
3.0%
150
$150
2.0%
60
$60
2.0%
200
$200
1.0%
175
$175
1.0%
55
$55
1.0%
52
$52
1.0%
50
$50
1.0%
35
$35
1.0%
47
$47
1.0%
40
$40
1.0%
Fed Decision in July?
WTB
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
93.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting
6.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting
2.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting
1.0%
Top Economic Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
Displays both open and closed markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Filter by status or platform. Volume based on the last 7 days.
1
Fed Decision in June?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting
98%
$1.2M
$6.3M
Jun 16
Active
2
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
Maintain rate
97%
$415.3K
—
Sep 16
Active
3
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
$85
61%
$340.0K
$6.0M
Jun 30
Active
4
Fed Decision in July?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
93%
$201.3K
$568.0K
Jul 28
Active
5
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
82%
$183.1K
—
Sep 29
Active
6
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
69%
$168.8K
$1.2M
Dec 30
Active
7
Brent crude oil price on June 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $74.99
93%
$144.9K
—
Jul 7
Active
8
Oil Price (WTI) on Jun 4, 2026?
Above $87.99
100%
$144.8K
—
Jun 11
Closing Soon
9
Brent crude oil price on June 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $93
92%
$109.1K
—
Jun 11
Closing Soon
10
Jobs numbers in May 2026?
Above -50,000
97%
$58.0K
—
Sep 4
Active
11
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting
98%
$46.5K
$108.8K
Jun 10
Closing Soon
12
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of June 1 2026?
$100
9%
$41.8K
$20.9K
Jun 5
Closing Soon
13
Oil Price (WTI) on Jun 5, 2026?
Above $93.99
39%
$39.6K
—
Jun 12
Active
14
US gas prices on Jun 5, 2026
> $4.200
98%
$28.4K
—
Jun 12
Active
15
May Inflation US – Annual
annual inflation
46%
$28.2K
$62.6K
Jun 10
Closing Soon
16
Bank of Japan Decision in June?
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting
97%
$26.6K
$53.6K
Jun 15
Active
17
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25?
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1
100%
$22.7K
$47.5K
May 31
Closed
18
Crude Oil all time high by…?
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31
24%
$21.0K
$127.7K
Dec 30
Active
19
Oil Price (WTI) on Jun 5, 2026?
> $88.99
89%
$19.6K
—
Jun 12
Active
20
US gas prices this week
$4.140
98%
$17.9K
—
Jun 15
Active
21
Recession before 2027?
No
85%
$15.6K
—
Feb 7
Active
22
Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)
98%
$14.1K
$159.3K
Jun 16
Active
23
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
Above $4.60
54%
$13.9K
—
Jan 6
Active
24
Fed rate hike in 2026?
No
60%
$13.5K
$365.6K
Dec 8
Active
25
Copper price on June 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
$6.44
99%
$13.2K
—
Jun 11
Closing Soon
26
Natural gas price on June 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
3.040
100%
$13.0K
—
Jun 11
Closing Soon
27
Fed rate cut by…?
December 2026 meeting
28%
$12.6K
$282.1K
Jun 16
Active
28
Unemployment in May 2026
Above 3.9%
100%
$11.6K
—
Sep 4
Active
29
How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027?
> $1.6 Trillion
50%
$9.8K
—
Jan 1
Active
30
US recession by end of 2026?
No
82%
$7.8K
$285.5K
Jan 30
Active
31
May Unemployment Rate
the May 2026 unemployment rate
39%
$6.4K
$5.2K
Jun 4
Closed
32
Brent crude oil price on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $71.99
100%
$5.4K
—
Jun 12
Active
33
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$120.01+
47%
$5.4K
—
Jan 7
Active
34
Bank of Russia decision in June?
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting
87%
$4.9K
$21.2K
Jun 18
Active
35
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
China GDP growth in Q2 2026
70%
$4.4K
$6.5K
Jul 15
Active
36
How many jobs added in May?
$50K–$100K
35%
$4.4K
$1.5K
Jun 4
Closed
37
Inflation in May 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.8%
100%
$3.9K
—
Sep 9
Active
38
EV commodity prices on Jun 4, 2026
Above 1235.88
99%
$3.5K
—
Jun 11
Closing Soon
39
Bank of Korea decision in July?
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting
60%
$3.4K
$5.1K
Jul 15
Active
40
Airport passengers on Jun 4, 2026
> 2,220,000
97%
$3.0K
—
Jun 11
Closing Soon
41
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
19%
$2.8K
—
Jan 1
Active
42
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?
1
10%
$2.6K
—
Jun 24
Active
43
Bank of Canada decision in June?
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting
99%
$2.6K
$15.1K
Jun 9
Closing Soon
44
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes
77%
$2.5K
—
Jan 7
Active
45
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by June 5?
$350M
81%
$2.4K
$12.6K
Jun 29
Active
46
Price of a dozen eggs on Jun 4, 2026
Above $2.62
96%
$2.0K
—
Jun 11
Closing Soon
47
What will the price of GTA VI be on PS5?
More than $60
98%
$1.9K
—
Jan 1
Active
48
Fed Decision in June
Yes
97%
$1.8K
$10.3K
Jul 1
Active
49
Natural gas price on June 05, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> 0.999
100%
$1.7K
—
Jun 12
Active
50
US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026
Above -40K
98%
$1.7K
—
Jun 12
Active
51
Alaska commercial salmon harvest in 2026?
100 million+
83%
$1.5K
—
Jan 14
Active
52
Gas prices in the US in Jun 2026?
> $3.10
100%
$1.5K
—
Jul 7
Active
53
Fed rate hike by…?
October 2026 Meeting
26%
$1.4K
$12.6K
Dec 8
Active
54
Which countries will have a recession?
United Kingdom
37%
$1.1K
—
Dec 31
Active
55
More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Yes
75%
$1.1K
—
Mar 31
Active
56
When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire?
Before 2030
97%
$1.0K
—
Jan 1
Active
57
May Inflation US – Monthly
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May
49%
$935
$15.1K
Jun 10
Closing Soon
58
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026
98%
$916
$204.0K
Dec 30
Active
59
ECB rate hike in 2026?
Yes
99%
$893
$27.4K
Dec 30
Active
60
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30
1%
$826
$20.6K
Jun 29
Active
61
Next Fed rate hike?
By Dec 31, 2027
74%
$785
—
Jan 1
Active
62
How high will the S&P get this year?
7,800 or above
77%
$768
—
Jan 7
Active
63
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027
32%
$761
$147.7K
Dec 30
Active
64
CPI year-over-year in May 2026?
4.2%
43%
$757
—
Sep 9
Active
65
Bank of England decision in June?
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting
99%
$734
$41.6K
Jun 17
Active
66
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision
74%
$644
$12.0K
Jun 16
Active
67
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Yes
89%
$627
—
Mar 31
Active
68
South Africa balance of trade for May
Above ZAR 6.00B
95%
$615
—
Jul 7
Active
69
CPI YoY in May
No
97%
$550
$25.7K
Jun 24
Active
70
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y)
78%
$495
$91.7K
Jan 30
Closed
71
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?
Yes
67%
$476
$11.3K
Dec 30
Active
72
Fed Decision in June
No
96%
$428
$73.0K
Jul 1
Active
73
Fed Decision in June
No
98%
$403
$72.7K
Jul 1
Active
74
CPI YoY in May
No
91%
$373
$5.2K
Jun 24
Active
75
US bank failure by June 30?
US bank failure by June 30
36%
$365
$1.8K
Jun 29
Active
76
Brazil inflation rate in June
Above 4.20%
96%
$363
—
Jul 17
Active
77
CPI in May
> 0.1%
100%
$361
—
Sep 9
Active
78
Fed rate cut before 2027?
No
67%
$354
—
Jan 1
Active
79
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
No
56%
$348
$3.8K
Dec 30
Active
80
Russia unemployment rate in April
Above 2.0%
Outcome
$66
—
Jun 3
Closed