Economics Prediction Markets: Policy, Commodities, Trade
24H Volume
$9.2M
Kalshi
9.2%
Polymarket
40.2%
Polymarket US
50.6%
Active Markets
3,660
Kalshi
3,274
Polymarket
362
Polymarket US
24
Open Interest
Approx. OI
$48.1M
Kalshi
$44.0M
Polymarket
$3.5M
Polymarket US
$502.3K
Top Market (24H)
$4.2M
Fed Decision in July
Today's Top Markets by Volume
Fed Decision in July
YES
Yes
92.0%
NO
No
8.0%
Fed Decision in July?
WTB
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
93.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting
6.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting
1.0%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
WNF
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
85.0%
1
1
11.0%
2
2
3.0%
12
12
1.0%
5
5
1.0%
3
3
1.0%
11
11
1.0%
4
4
1.0%
6
6
1.0%
8
8
1.0%
10
10
1.0%
7
7
1.0%
9
9
1.0%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
85
$85
64.0%
90
$90
30.0%
95
$95
18.0%
100
$100
9.0%
65
$65
6.0%
105
$105
6.0%
110
$110
3.0%
60
$60
1.0%
130
$130
1.0%
120
$120
1.0%
115
$115
1.0%
55
$55
1.0%
10
$10
1.0%
50
$50
1.0%
45
$45
1.0%
Top Economic Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
Displays both open and closed markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Filter by status or platform. Volume based on the last 7 days.
1
Fed Decision in July
Yes
92%
$4.2M
$138.5K
Aug 12
Active
2
Fed Decision in July?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
93%
$2.4M
$568.0K
Jul 28
Active
3
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
85%
$1.0M
$1.2M
Dec 30
Active
4
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
$85
64%
$798.7K
$0
Jul 31
Active
5
Fed Decision in July
No
95%
$394.6K
$116.4K
Aug 12
Active
6
Oil Price (WTI) on Jul 20, 2026?
> $72.99
100%
$336.1K
$241.7K
Jul 27
Closing Soon
7
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
Maintain rate
94%
$182.4K
$14.8M
Oct 28
Active
8
Fed Decision in September?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting
59%
$81.4K
$24.5K
Sep 15
Active
9
Oil Price (WTI) on Jul 21, 2026?
> 70.49
100%
$67.0K
$78.7K
Jul 28
Active
10
Brent crude oil price on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $81.50
100%
$66.9K
$68.2K
Jul 27
Closing Soon
11
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Will the Fed PauseβPauseβPause in the next three decisions (AprβJunβJul)
93%
$41.6K
$2.3K
Jul 28
Active
12
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
69%
$36.8K
$2.9M
Sep 29
Active
13
Fed Rate Hike in 2026?
No
55%
$33.4K
$14.8K
Jan 14
Active
14
Crude Oil all time high by…?
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31
12%
$29.0K
$80.8K
Dec 30
Active
15
Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?
Above 2.75%
100%
$27.8K
$1.2M
Aug 5
Active
16
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes
54%
$26.1K
$365.6K
Dec 8
Active
17
Copper price on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $5.80
100%
$24.1K
$26.7K
Jul 27
Closing Soon
18
Fed Decision in October?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting
62%
$22.8K
$0
Oct 28
Active
19
US gas prices tomorrow?
> $3.965
100%
$17.9K
$10.8K
Jul 28
Active
20
Natural gas price on July 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> 2.820
82%
$16.5K
$12.2K
Jul 27
Closing Soon
21
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting
100%
$16.4K
$1.6K
Jul 22
Closing Soon
22
Fed rate cut by…?
December 2026 meeting
17%
$15.5K
$88.5K
Jun 16
Closed
23
Fed Decision in July
No
99%
$13.9K
$190.5K
Aug 12
Active
24
Gas prices in the US in Jul 2026?
> $3.70
100%
$12.8K
$122.1K
Aug 30
Active
25
Oil Price (WTI) on Jul 24, 2026?
$83.00β$83.99
8%
$12.1K
$65.8K
Jul 31
Active
26
Next Fed rate hike?
Dec 31, 2027
77%
$11.5K
$617.2K
Jul 1
Active
27
Bank of Russia decision in July?
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting
67%
$10.2K
$531
Jul 23
Closing Soon
28
Fed decisions (JulβOct)
Will the Fed PauseβPauseβPause in the next three decisions (JulβSepβOct)
47%
$10.2K
$0
Oct 28
Active
29
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$115.01+
37%
$9.0K
$942.8K
Jan 7
Active
30
Fed rate hike by…?
October 2026 Meeting
46%
$7.8K
$4.4K
Dec 8
Active
31
Bank of Mexico Decision in August?
No change in Bank of Mexicoβs interest rates after August 2026 meeting
91%
$5.8K
$4.8K
Aug 5
Active
32
Brent crude oil price on July 24, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $68.99
100%
$5.3K
$13.1K
Jul 31
Active
33
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31
87%
$5.3K
$0
Jul 31
Active
34
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
Chinaβs 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y)
88%
$4.5K
$91.7K
Jan 30
Closed
35
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
No
79%
$4.3K
$173.5K
Jul 1
Active
36
WTI price on July 20, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?
> 78.49
96%
$4.0K
$1
Jul 27
Closing Soon
37
WTI price on July 20, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET?
> 80.69
86%
$3.7K
$3.6K
Jul 27
Closing Soon
38
July Inflation US – Annual
annual inflation
38%
$3.6K
$0
Aug 11
Active
39
Recession before 2027?
No
87%
$3.4K
$805.4K
Feb 7
Active
40
US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 7/24
Above 1000
100%
$3.2K
$13.7K
Jul 31
Active
41
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.0%
99%
$3.1K
$44.8K
Nov 11
Active
42
US recession by end of 2026?
No
87%
$2.9K
$285.5K
Jan 30
Active
43
Brent crude oil price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $50.99
100%
$2.8K
$20.7K
Aug 7
Active
44
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before 2027
7%
$2.6K
$389.6K
Jan 8
Active
45
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
> 0.0%
100%
$2.6K
$23.9K
Oct 29
Active
46
Brent crude oil price on July 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $83
93%
$2.5K
$669
Jul 28
Active
47
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes
77%
$2.5K
$434.9K
Jan 7
Active
48
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
15%
$2.4K
$860.0K
Jan 1
Active
49
How high will WTI oil get by Jul 31, 2026?
$79.50+
100%
$2.1K
$42.9K
Aug 7
Active
50
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026
74%
$2.1K
$386
Jul 22
Closing Soon
51
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
Above $4.60
51%
$2.0K
$145.3K
Jan 6
Active
52
How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?
1
25%
$2.0K
$23.7K
Aug 5
Active
53
CPI in July
> -0.3%
98%
$1.5K
$14.9K
Nov 11
Active
54
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Will the Fed PauseβPauseβPause in the next three decisions (JunβJulβSep)
61%
$1.4K
$282
Sep 15
Active
55
Bank of Japan Decision in July?
No change in Bank of Japanβs interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
99%
$1.4K
$810
Jul 30
Active
56
Recession in γ
€2027?
No
58%
$1.4K
$33.2K
Feb 7
Active
57
Natural gas price on July 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> 2.850
65%
$1.3K
$421
Jul 28
Active
58
How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?
$65
56%
$1.2K
$16.2K
Jan 7
Active
59
US economic state at the end of 2026?
the US economy
44%
$1.2K
$1.7K
Jan 30
Active
60
Core CPI MoM – July 2026
Core CPI MoM
26%
$1.1K
$0
Aug 11
Active
61
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
No
93%
$1.1K
$8.2K
Jan 28
Active
62
Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (7/17-7/24)?
No
59%
$977
$850
Jul 24
Closing Soon
63
Avocado advertised prices this week
Above $0.80
96%
$969
$1.3K
Jul 31
Active
64
2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 20, 2026?
Above 4.00%
97%
$891
$392
Jul 21
Closing Soon
65
S&P close price end of 2026?
8000β8199.99
12%
$870
$162.6K
Jan 7
Active
66
US gas prices on Election Day
Above $2.50
96%
$760
$4.9K
Nov 10
Active
67
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
No
75%
$721
$3.8K
Dec 30
Active
68
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
the upper bound of the target federal funds rate
31%
$709
$31.0K
Dec 8
Active
69
10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 20, 2026?
Above 4.40%
99%
$686
$610
Jul 21
Closing Soon
70
5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 20, 2026?
Above 4.25%
87%
$668
$1.0K
Jul 21
Closing Soon
71
Copper price on July 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Above 5.60
99%
$667
$0
Jul 28
Active
72
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will the Fedβs upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027
23%
$656
$147.7K
Dec 30
Active
73
30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 20, 2026?
Yes
98%
$621
$413
Jul 21
Closing Soon
74
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
1
4%
$590
$106.1K
Jan 1
Active
75
Unemployment in July
Above 3.7%
100%
$426
$3.3K
Nov 6
Active
76
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 13?
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19
97%
$378
$0
Jul 19
Closed
77
More tech layoffs in 20β26 than in 2025?
Yes
91%
$353
$164.3K
Mar 31
Active
78
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
$1.1M
83%
$325
$14.7K
Feb 27
Active
79
What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?
$335,000β$340,000
41%
$293
$0
Sep 29
Active
80
2026 World GDP Growth
world GDP growth
58%
$270
$1.3K
Jan 14
Active