Economics Prediction Markets: Policy, Commodities, Trade
24H Volume
$3.1M
Kalshi
53.5%
Polymarket
40.5%
Polymarket US
6.1%
Active Markets
4,245
Kalshi
3,831
Polymarket
356
Polymarket US
58
Open Interest
Approx. OI
$32.3M
Kalshi
$29.0M
Polymarket
$2.9M
Polymarket US
$378.4K
Top Market (24H)
$617.4K
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Today's Top Markets by Volume
Fed Decision in September?
WTB
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting
63.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting
37.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting
2.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting
1.0%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
WNF
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
86.0%
1
1
10.0%
2
2
3.0%
12
12
1.0%
5
5
1.0%
3
3
1.0%
11
11
1.0%
4
4
1.0%
6
6
1.0%
8
8
1.0%
10
10
1.0%
7
7
1.0%
9
9
1.0%
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
MR
Maintain rate
64.0%
H2
Hike 25bps
36.0%
C2
Cut 25bps
2.0%
H2
Hike >25bps
1.0%
C2
Cut >25bps
1.0%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
YES
Yes
55.0%
NO
No
45.0%
Top Economic Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
Displays both open and closed markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Filter by status or platform. Volume based on the last 7 days.
1
Fed Decision in September?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting
63%
$2.3M
$24.5K
Sep 15
Active
2
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
86%
$557.3K
$1.2M
Dec 30
Active
3
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
Maintain rate
64%
$527.9K
โ
Dec 16
Active
4
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes
55%
$515.2K
$365.6K
Dec 8
Active
5
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
$75
88%
$396.1K
$0
Aug 31
Active
6
Fed Rate Hike in 2026?
Yes
59%
$185.3K
$18.1K
Jan 14
Active
7
Fed Decision in September
Yes
65%
$177.0K
$32.8K
Sep 30
Active
8
CPI YoY in July
Yes
58%
$124.6K
$4.6K
Aug 26
Active
9
Fed Decision in September
No
69%
$118.3K
$5.9K
Sep 30
Active
10
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
70%
$101.7K
โ
Sep 29
Active
11
Next Fed rate hike?
Dec 31, 2027
79%
$65.5K
โ
Jan 1
Active
12
US gas prices tomorrow
> $4.010
100%
$59.4K
โ
Aug 15
Active
13
Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 10, 2026?
> $69.49
99%
$55.1K
โ
Aug 17
Active
14
Fed Decision in October?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting
68%
$48.5K
$0
Oct 28
Active
15
CPI in July
> -0.4%
99%
$45.5K
โ
Nov 11
Active
16
Copper price on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Above $6.42
100%
$45.4K
โ
Aug 14
Closing Soon
17
US gas prices this week
$3.860
100%
$44.1K
โ
Aug 17
Active
18
Brent crude oil price on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $78.99
100%
$43.5K
โ
Aug 14
Closing Soon
19
Fed rate hike by…?
October 2026 Meeting
50%
$40.2K
$3.4K
Dec 8
Active
20
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
> 3.00%
100%
$34.5K
โ
Sep 23
Active
21
Fed Decision in December?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting
59%
$24.0K
$0
Dec 9
Active
22
July Inflation US – Annual
annual inflation
45%
$22.4K
$0
Aug 11
Closing Soon
23
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.0%
100%
$21.0K
โ
Nov 11
Active
24
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Will the Fed PauseโPauseโPause in the next three decisions (JunโJulโSep)
63%
$16.6K
$252
Sep 15
Active
25
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
13%
$14.8K
โ
Jan 1
Active
26
Core CPI MoM – July 2026
Core CPI MoM
48%
$13.4K
$0
Aug 11
Closing Soon
27
Crude Oil all time high by…?
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31
11%
$12.5K
$80.8K
Dec 30
Active
28
Unemployment in August
Above 3.8%
97%
$9.6K
โ
Dec 4
Active
29
Bank of Israel Decision in September?
Yes
84%
$9.2K
$396
Sep 15
Active
30
Bank of Mexico Decision in August?
No
Outcome
$9.2K
โ
Aug 5
Closed
31
Recession in ใ
ค2027?
No
67%
$9.1K
โ
Feb 7
Active
32
Natural gas price on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $2.499
100%
$8.6K
โ
Aug 14
Closing Soon
33
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9
50%
$8.5K
$0
Aug 9
Closing Soon
34
July Inflation US – Monthly
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July
63%
$8.4K
$0
Aug 11
Closing Soon
35
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of August 3 2026?
$100
1%
$7.7K
$0
Aug 7
Closed
36
What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?
$419,000
53%
$7.7K
$0
Sep 29
Active
37
Argentina inflation rate MoM for July
Above 1.4%
97%
$7.4K
โ
Aug 20
Active
38
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$115.01+
26%
$7.3K
โ
Jan 7
Active
39
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026
47%
$7.3K
$0
Dec 31
Active
40
Fed rate cut by…?
December 2026 meeting
16%
$7.3K
$58.2K
Jun 16
Closed
41
Diesel prices this week?
> $5.16
98%
$7.1K
โ
Aug 16
Active
42
Bank of Japan Decision in September?
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting
59%
$6.9K
$0
Sep 18
Active
43
Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in September
Cut 25bps
83%
$6.2K
โ
Sep 23
Active
44
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
the UKโs 2026 inflation
23%
$6.2K
$736
Jan 19
Active
45
Recession before 2027?
No
94%
$5.7K
โ
Feb 7
Active
46
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31
53%
$5.1K
$0
Aug 31
Active
47
How high will inflation get this year?
4.5%
23%
$5.1K
โ
Feb 28
Active
48
July Inflation China – Annual
Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026
74%
$4.8K
$0
Aug 10
Closing Soon
49
PPI YoY – July 2026
PPI YoY
70%
$4.6K
$0
Aug 12
Closing Soon
50
S&P close price end of 2026?
8000โ8199
14%
$4.6K
โ
Jan 7
Active
51
Bank of Israel decision in August?
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting
77%
$4.4K
$0
Aug 30
Active
52
How many jobs added in July?
Will the US lose jobs in July
Outcome
$4.3K
โ
Aug 6
Closed
53
Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?
Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ)
42%
$4.2K
$0
Jun 2
Closed
54
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (August 2026)
At least 30
44%
$4.1K
โ
Nov 30
Active
55
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Above 0.0%
96%
$4.0K
โ
Jan 29
Active
56
July Unemployment Rate
the July 2026 unemployment rate
Outcome
$3.6K
โ
Aug 7
Closed
57
Fed Decision in September
No
97%
$3.5K
$125.0K
Sep 30
Active
58
Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
Above -25,000
90%
$3.4K
โ
Jan 1
Active
59
Wti oil price on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
> $75.99
98%
$3.3K
โ
Aug 14
Closing Soon
60
Bank of Mexico Decision in September?
No change in Bank of Mexicoโs interest rates after September 2026 meeting
96%
$3.3K
$0
Sep 24
Active
61
Fed rate cut before 2027?
No
85%
$3.3K
โ
Jan 1
Active
62
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
the upper bound of the target federal funds rate
39%
$3.0K
$31.0K
Dec 8
Active
63
Bank of Mexico rate decision in September
Maintain current rate
92%
$2.9K
โ
Oct 1
Active
64
Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?
>$62.99
73%
$2.8K
โ
Nov 10
Active
65
Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation
63%
$2.7K
$1.1K
Jan 18
Active
66
How low will WTI oil get by Aug 31, 2026?
$74.50
85%
$2.6K
โ
Sep 7
Active
67
Natural gas price on August 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
2.650
59%
$2.5K
โ
Aug 17
Active
68
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will the Fedโs upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027
27%
$2.5K
$147.7K
Dec 30
Active
69
Core CPI YoY – July 2026
Core CPI YoY
43%
$2.4K
$0
Aug 11
Closing Soon
70
Will Trump order tariffs in Aug 2026?
Yes
86%
$2.3K
โ
Sep 8
Active
71
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
Above $4.60
40%
$2.3K
โ
Jan 6
Active
72
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2
Outcome
$2.3K
โ
Aug 2
Closed
73
Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized)
39%
$2.2K
$25
Aug 16
Active
74
Gas prices in the US in Aug 2026?
Above $2.70
100%
$2.2K
โ
Sep 30
Active
75
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026
21%
$2.2K
$154.8K
Dec 30
Active
76
Jerome Powell out as Fed Governor before August 2026?
Before Jan 31, 2028
84%
$2.1K
โ
Feb 7
Active
77
CPI core in July
Above 0.0%
94%
$2.1K
โ
Aug 19
Active
78
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
Above 4.5%
38%
$2.0K
โ
Mar 9
Active
79
Copper price on August 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
$6.40
88%
$2.0K
โ
Aug 17
Active
80
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
Apple
44%
$1.9K
$0
Dec 31
Active
1
Fed Decision in September?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting
63%
$9.0M
$24.5K
Sep 15
Active
2
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
$75
88%
$3.2M
$0
Aug 31
Active
3
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
86%
$1.7M
$1.2M
Dec 30
Active
4
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026?
No
Outcome
$1.3M
โ
Jul 31
Closed
5
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
Maintain rate
64%
$912.2K
โ
Dec 16
Active
6
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
70%
$833.3K
โ
Sep 29
Active
7
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes
55%
$793.5K
$365.6K
Dec 8
Active
8
Crude Oil all time high by…?
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31
11%
$237.8K
$80.8K
Dec 30
Active
9
Fed Rate Hike in 2026?
Yes
59%
$231.8K
$18.1K
Jan 14
Active
10
Fed rate hike by…?
October 2026 Meeting
50%
$218.3K
$3.4K
Dec 8
Active
11
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26
Outcome
$194.3K
โ
Jul 26
Closed
12
July Inflation US – Annual
annual inflation
45%
$185.5K
$0
Aug 11
Closing Soon
13
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$115.01+
26%
$180.2K
โ
Jan 7
Active
14
US gas prices this week
$3.860
100%
$147.2K
โ
Aug 17
Active
15
CPI YoY in July
Yes
58%
$119.4K
$4.6K
Aug 26
Active
16
Recession before 2027?
No
94%
$108.7K
โ
Feb 7
Active
17
Fed Decision in October?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting
68%
$94.7K
$0
Oct 28
Active
18
Fed Decision in September
No
69%
$94.4K
$5.9K
Sep 30
Active
19
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of August 3 2026?
$100
1%
$94.1K
$0
Aug 7
Closed
20
Next Fed rate hike?
Dec 31, 2027
79%
$89.6K
โ
Jan 1
Active
21
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2
Outcome
$85.5K
โ
Aug 2
Closed
22
Brent crude oil price on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $78.99
100%
$72.6K
โ
Aug 14
Closing Soon
23
CPI in July
> -0.4%
99%
$71.6K
โ
Nov 11
Active
24
Fed Decision in December?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting
59%
$70.4K
$0
Dec 9
Active
25
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.0%
100%
$66.0K
โ
Nov 11
Active
26
July Inflation US – Monthly
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July
63%
$57.4K
$0
Aug 11
Closing Soon
27
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
> 3.00%
100%
$56.6K
โ
Sep 23
Active
28
Fed decisions (JulโOct)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (JulโSepโOct)
50%
$55.4K
$0
Oct 28
Active
29
Bank of Japan Decision in September?
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting
59%
$51.3K
$0
Sep 18
Active
30
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of July 27 2026?
No
Outcome
$49.2K
โ
Jul 31
Closed
31
Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)?
>$62.99
73%
$48.0K
โ
Nov 10
Active
32
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
13%
$46.9K
โ
Jan 1
Active
33
PPI YoY – July 2026
PPI YoY
70%
$46.9K
$0
Aug 12
Closing Soon
34
How high will the S&P get this year?
7,800 or above
84%
$46.7K
โ
Jan 7
Active
35
Core CPI MoM – July 2026
Core CPI MoM
48%
$43.1K
$0
Aug 11
Closing Soon
36
Gas prices in the US in Aug 2026?
Above $2.70
100%
$40.8K
โ
Sep 30
Active
37
S&P close price end of 2026?
8000โ8199
14%
$39.9K
โ
Jan 7
Active
38
Australia unemployment rate in July
Above 4.0%
94%
$39.2K
โ
Aug 26
Active
39
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Will the Fed PauseโPauseโPause in the next three decisions (JunโJulโSep)
63%
$38.9K
$252
Sep 15
Active
40
Bank of England decision in September?
No change in Bank of Englandโs interest rates after September 2026 meeting
90%
$38.3K
$0
Sep 17
Active
41
CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?
0.1%
38%
$36.9K
โ
Nov 11
Active
42
What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
$446,000
38%
$35.6K
$0
Sep 29
Active
43
Core CPI YoY – July 2026
Core CPI YoY
43%
$35.4K
$0
Aug 11
Closing Soon
44
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31
53%
$34.8K
$0
Aug 31
Active
45
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026
47%
$34.8K
$0
Dec 31
Active
46
Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
31,000โ31,499
5%
$33.8K
โ
Jan 7
Active
47
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9
50%
$33.2K
$0
Aug 9
Closing Soon
48
Copper price on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Above $6.42
100%
$32.4K
โ
Aug 14
Closing Soon
49
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
the UKโs 2026 inflation
23%
$31.4K
$736
Jan 19
Active
50
Fed rate cut by…?
December 2026 meeting
16%
$30.5K
$58.2K
Jun 16
Closed
51
July Inflation China – Annual
Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026
74%
$27.3K
$0
Aug 10
Closing Soon
52
ISM Services PMI – July 2026
ISM Services PMI
Outcome
$27.1K
โ
Aug 4
Closed
53
July Unemployment Rate
the July 2026 unemployment rate
Outcome
$26.3K
โ
Aug 7
Closed
54
Diesel prices this week?
> $5.16
98%
$25.3K
โ
Aug 16
Active
55
ISM Manufacturing PMI – July 2026
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Outcome
$23.1K
โ
Aug 2
Closed
56
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31
Outcome
$23.1K
โ
Jul 31
Closed
57
CPI YoY in July
Yes
95%
$21.9K
$1.3K
Aug 26
Active
58
Fed rate cut before 2027?
No
85%
$21.8K
โ
Jan 1
Active
59
Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 10, 2026?
> $69.49
99%
$21.0K
โ
Aug 17
Active
60
JOLTS Job Openings โ June 2026
$7.3Mโ$7.4M
Outcome
$20.7K
โ
Aug 4
Closed
61
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
Above $4.60
40%
$20.5K
โ
Jan 6
Active
62
US gas prices tomorrow
> $4.010
100%
$20.2K
โ
Aug 15
Active
63
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes
84%
$19.9K
โ
Jan 7
Active
64
Bank of Israel decision in August?
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting
77%
$19.6K
$0
Aug 30
Active
65
Bank of Canada Decision in September?
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement
98%
$18.7K
$0
Sep 1
Active
66
Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation
63%
$18.5K
$1.1K
Jan 18
Active
67
What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?
$419,000
53%
$17.0K
$0
Sep 29
Active
68
Bank of Mexico rate decision in September
Maintain current rate
92%
$16.6K
โ
Oct 1
Active
69
Natural gas price on August 07, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $2.499
100%
$15.9K
โ
Aug 14
Closing Soon
70
Bank of Mexico Decision in August?
No
Outcome
$15.3K
โ
Aug 5
Closed
71
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will the Fedโs upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027
27%
$14.8K
$147.7K
Dec 30
Active
72
How many jobs added in July?
Will the US lose jobs in July
Outcome
$13.9K
โ
Aug 6
Closed
73
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2
Outcome
$11.5K
โ
Aug 2
Closed
74
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?
Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26
Outcome
$8.2K
โ
Jul 26
Closed
75
USD x Iranian rials End of July?
$1.9M
Outcome
$6.9K
โ
Jul 31
Closed
76
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – July 2026
UMich Consumer Sentiment
Outcome
$5.4K
โ
Jul 30
Closed
77
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
No
Outcome
$5.1K
โ
Jun 29
Closed
78
Will gas hit __ by end of July?
No
Outcome
$2.9K
โ
Jul 30
Closed
79
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July?
Will there be between 28 and 30 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31
Outcome
$2.5K
โ
Jul 31
Closed
80
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by July 31?
No
Outcome
$2.4K
โ
Jul 31
Closed