Economics Prediction Markets: Policy, Commodities, Trade
24H Volume
$5.8M
K: 24.7%
P: 75.3%
U: 0.0%
Active Markets
4,685
Across all platforms
Open Interest
$34.9M
Partial
Approx. OI
Top Market (24H)
$674.0K
Fed decision in April?
Today's Top Markets by Volume
Fed decision in April?
WTB
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
99.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting
1.0%
WTF
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting
1.0%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
85
$85
87.0%
90
$90
85.0%
95
$95
78.0%
80
$80
49.0%
100
$100
36.0%
75
$75
27.0%
105
$105
23.0%
110
$110
14.0%
70
$70
13.0%
115
$115
12.0%
120
$120
9.0%
125
$125
5.0%
130
$130
4.0%
60
$60
4.0%
140
$140
3.0%
150
$150
2.0%
200
$200
1.0%
170
$170
1.0%
160
$160
1.0%
50
$50
1.0%
20
$20
1.0%
40
$40
1.0%
30
$30
1.0%
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
KW
Kevin Warsh
94.0%
JS
Judy Shelton
1.0%
MB
Michelle Bowman
1.0%
RR
Rick Reider
1.0%
SM
Stephen Miran
1.0%
SB
Scott Bessent
1.0%
KH
Kevin Hassett
1.0%
CW
Christopher Waller
1.0%
JP
Jerome Powell
1.0%
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 20, 2026?
89
>$82.99
100.0%
89
>$80.99
100.0%
79
>$77.99
100.0%
89
>$81.99
100.0%
79
>$79.99
100.0%
79
>$78.99
100.0%
89
>$83.99
99.0%
89
>$84.99
97.0%
89
>$85.99
93.0%
89
>$86.99
72.0%
89
>$87.99
32.0%
89
>$88.99
15.0%
89
>$89.99
6.0%
99
>$90.99
4.0%
99
>$91.99
3.0%
99
>$92.99
2.0%
19
>$101.99
1.0%
99
>$99.99
1.0%
99
>$97.99
1.0%
99
>$94.99
1.0%
99
>$93.99
1.0%
19
>$100.99
1.0%
99
>$95.99
1.0%
99
>$96.99
1.0%
99
>$98.99
1.0%
Top Economic Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
Displays both open and closed markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Filter by status or platform. Volume based on the last 7 days.
1
Fed decision in April?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
99%
$3.2M
$16.5M
Apr 28
Active
2
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
$85
87%
$1.3M
$8.8M
Apr 29
Active
3
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
94%
$688.0K
$5.1M
Oct 30
Active
4
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 20, 2026?
>$82.99
100%
$434.2K
—
Apr 27
Active
5
Fed Decision in June?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting
93%
$233.5K
$976.7K
Jun 16
Active
6
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
94%
$139.6K
—
Sep 29
Active
7
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
36%
$134.3K
$965.0K
Dec 30
Active
8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
$80
75%
$122.2K
$2.4M
Jun 30
Active
9
Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Maintain rate
99%
$79.0K
—
Jul 29
Active
10
Bank of Japan Decision in April?
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
96%
$70.8K
$117.2K
Apr 27
Active
11
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
the upper bound of the target federal funds rate
36%
$60.4K
$26.1K
Dec 8
Active
12
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y)
65%
$48.0K
$60.9K
Jan 30
Closed
13
Gas prices in the US in Apr 2026?
> $2.90
100%
$45.0K
—
May 7
Active
14
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 24, 2026?
>$90.99
42%
$42.5K
—
May 1
Active
15
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?
Crude Oil all time high by April 30
4%
$34.4K
$99.0K
Apr 29
Active
16
Uber Trips in Q1?
Above 4.0 billion
3%
$20.3K
—
Jul 31
Active
17
CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?
3.6%
27%
$18.2K
—
Aug 11
Active
18
What will Powell say during his April press conference?
No
94%
$16.7K
—
Apr 30
Active
19
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19
38%
$16.4K
$44.7K
Apr 18
Closed
20
Fed Decision in July?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
79%
$15.6K
$113.0K
Jul 28
Active
21
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 21, 2026?
$79+
97%
$15.4K
—
Apr 28
Active
22
Brent crude oil price on Apr 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $88.00
100%
$15.3K
—
Apr 27
Closing Soon
23
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting
82%
$14.3K
$18.2K
May 6
Active
24
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
April 19, 2026
59%
$13.2K
$11.0K
Apr 18
Closed
25
US recession by end of 2026?
No
74%
$12.7K
$268.4K
Jan 30
Active
26
CPI in April
> -0.1%
99%
$11.7K
—
Aug 11
Active
27
Bank of England decision in April?
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting
98%
$11.0K
$55.9K
Apr 29
Active
28
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by…?
June 30, 2026
91%
$10.1K
$148.7K
May 13
Active
29
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
Maintain rate
91%
$9.7K
—
Sep 16
Active
30
US gas prices on Apr 21, 2026
> $4.000
100%
$8.7K
—
Apr 28
Active
31
What will Kevin Warsh say during his Senate Confirmation Hearing?
Inflation
98%
$8.3K
—
Apr 22
Closing Soon
32
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$115.01+
54%
$7.4K
—
Jan 7
Active
33
Brent crude oil price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $73.99
97%
$7.2K
—
May 1
Active
34
US gas prices this week
> $3.880
99%
$7.0K
—
May 4
Active
35
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026
86%
$6.4K
$137.2K
Dec 30
Active
36
Natural gas price on Apr 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> 2.650
95%
$6.1K
—
Apr 27
Closing Soon
37
Bank of Japan rate decision in April
Maintain rate
97%
$5.2K
—
May 4
Active
38
How low will oil (WTI) get by Apr 30, 2026?
$86
99%
$5.0K
—
May 7
Active
39
Bank of Canada decision in April?
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting
99%
$4.8K
$20.8K
Apr 28
Active
40
Will gas hit __ by end of April?
$3.95
32%
$4.7K
$43.3K
Apr 29
Active
41
Bank of Russia decision in April?
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting
95%
$4.5K
$38.5K
Apr 23
Closing Soon
42
Fed rate cut by…?
December 2026 meeting
67%
$4.3K
$206.5K
Jun 16
Active
43
Recession before 2027?
No
74%
$4.2K
—
Feb 7
Active
44
Fed funds rate after Apr 2026 meeting?
Above 3.00%
100%
$3.9K
—
May 6
Active
45
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
> 1.0%
87%
$3.7K
—
Jul 30
Active
46
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting
62%
$3.6K
$6.9K
Jun 10
Active
47
Largest Company end of May?
NVIDIA
96%
$3.6K
$2.5K
May 30
Active
48
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30
26%
$3.5K
$18.9K
Apr 29
Active
49
People's Bank of China rate change in April?
Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April
99%
$3.4K
$11.4K
Apr 29
Active
50
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
27%
$3.2K
—
Jan 1
Active
51
Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.2%
99%
$3.0K
—
Aug 11
Active
52
Fed rate hike by…?
October 2026 Meeting
18%
$2.9K
$19.1K
Dec 8
Active
53
Brent crude oil price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $80.99
91%
$2.9K
—
May 7
Active
54
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)
99%
$2.7K
$39.7K
Apr 28
Active
55
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes
62%
$2.6K
—
Jan 7
Active
56
Fed rate hike in 2026?
No
86%
$2.5K
$171.5K
Dec 8
Active
57
US x Cuba economic deal by…?
June 30, 2026
35%
$2.5K
$30.7K
Jun 29
Active
58
Corn price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> 442.99
98%
$2.4K
—
May 1
Active
59
Copper price on Apr 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $5.62
97%
$2.3K
—
Apr 27
Closing Soon
60
Jobs numbers in Apr 2026?
> -100,000
97%
$2.1K
—
Aug 7
Active
61
Brent crude oil price on Apr 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $91.50
88%
$2.0K
—
Apr 28
Active
62
USD/IRR on April 30, 2026
Above 1,300,000
92%
$2.0K
—
May 7
Active
63
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before 2027
14%
$1.7K
—
Jan 8
Active
64
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027
70%
$1.7K
$144.0K
Dec 30
Active
65
Treasury 10-year yield on Apr 20, 2026?
4.23–4.25%
38%
$1.7K
—
Apr 21
Closing Soon
66
US retail sales in March 2026
Above -0.2%
99%
$1.7K
—
Apr 28
Active
67
Powell out as Chair?
No
99%
$1.7K
—
May 7
Active
68
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
No
76%
$1.7K
—
Jul 1
Active
69
Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, 2026
At least 185,000
96%
$1.7K
—
Apr 30
Active
70
Bank of Brazil Decision in June?
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting
84%
$1.6K
$8.6K
Jun 15
Active
71
Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting?
Above 0.00%
95%
$1.6K
—
May 5
Active
72
UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026
> 2.7%
97%
$1.5K
—
Apr 28
Active
73
What will Powell say during April Press Conference?
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference
99%
$1.4K
$24.6K
Apr 28
Active
74
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30
48%
$1.4K
$25.5K
Apr 29
Active
75
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Will
25%
$1.3K
$33.2K
Apr 29
Active
76
How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting?
1
82%
$1.2K
—
May 6
Active
77
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?
$375M
3%
$1.2K
$89.6K
Apr 30
Active
78
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision
70%
$1.2K
$20.9K
Apr 28
Active
79
Sugar price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> 13.34
85%
$1.1K
—
May 1
Active
80
Number of TSA passengers April 13 – April 19?
the total number of TSA passengers for April 13 – April 19
Outcome
$801
—
Apr 18
Closed
1
Fed decision in April?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
99%
$38.4M
$16.5M
Apr 28
Active
2
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?
$85
87%
$9.9M
$8.8M
Apr 29
Active
3
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
94%
$5.4M
$5.1M
Oct 30
Active
4
Fed Decision in June?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting
93%
$1.7M
$976.7K
Jun 16
Active
5
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
36%
$1.4M
$965.0K
Dec 30
Active
6
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
$80
75%
$1.3M
$2.4M
Jun 30
Active
7
Fed decision in Apr 2026?
Maintain rate
99%
$777.4K
—
Jul 29
Active
8
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
94%
$724.4K
—
Sep 29
Active
9
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 20, 2026?
>$82.99
100%
$310.3K
—
Apr 27
Active
10
Bank of Japan Decision in April?
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting
96%
$278.8K
$117.2K
Apr 27
Active
11
Gas prices in the US in Apr 2026?
> $2.90
100%
$241.0K
—
May 7
Active
12
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
the upper bound of the target federal funds rate
36%
$211.9K
$26.1K
Dec 8
Active
13
Fed Decision in July?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting
79%
$177.6K
$113.0K
Jul 28
Active
14
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by May 1?
$375M
3%
$147.5K
$89.6K
Apr 30
Active
15
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$115.01+
54%
$144.1K
—
Jan 7
Active
16
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)
99%
$139.9K
$39.7K
Apr 28
Active
17
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 13-19)
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19
38%
$137.3K
$44.7K
Apr 18
Closed
18
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y)
65%
$127.8K
$60.9K
Jan 30
Closed
19
Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)
93%
$127.4K
$20.1K
Jun 16
Active
20
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by…?
June 30, 2026
91%
$124.7K
$148.7K
May 13
Active
21
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026
86%
$121.2K
$137.2K
Dec 30
Active
22
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?
Crude Oil all time high by April 30
4%
$117.3K
$99.0K
Apr 29
Active
23
Uber Trips in Q1?
Above 4.0 billion
3%
$115.3K
—
Jul 31
Active
24
Recession before 2027?
No
74%
$113.3K
—
Feb 7
Active
25
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?
April 12, 2026
Outcome
$110.7K
—
Apr 11
Closed
26
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 6-12)
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12
Outcome
$110.2K
—
Apr 11
Closed
27
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 24, 2026?
>$90.99
42%
$97.2K
—
May 1
Active
28
US recession by end of 2026?
No
74%
$77.9K
$268.4K
Jan 30
Active
29
CPI in April
> -0.1%
99%
$76.6K
—
Aug 11
Active
30
Bank of England decision in April?
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting
98%
$74.9K
$55.9K
Apr 29
Active
31
Who will be confirmed as Fed chair?
Kevin Warsh
94%
$67.1K
—
Jan 8
Active
32
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
Maintain rate
91%
$64.7K
—
Sep 16
Active
33
S&P close price end of 2026?
7,600–7,799
11%
$61.2K
—
Jan 7
Active
34
What will Powell say during his April press conference?
No
94%
$57.2K
—
Apr 30
Active
35
Argentina Monthly Inflation – March
Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026
Outcome
$52.1K
—
Apr 13
Closed
36
Bank of Canada decision in April?
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting
99%
$51.8K
$20.8K
Apr 28
Active
37
Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?
27,500–27,999
5%
$49.3K
—
Jan 7
Active
38
Powell out as Chair?
No
99%
$47.9K
—
May 7
Active
39
Will gas hit __ by end of April?
$3.95
32%
$45.8K
$43.3K
Apr 29
Active
40
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 19?
April 19, 2026
59%
$44.4K
$11.0K
Apr 18
Closed
41
Bank of Russia decision in April?
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting
95%
$44.3K
$38.5K
Apr 23
Closing Soon
42
Fed rate cut by…?
December 2026 meeting
67%
$43.8K
$206.5K
Jun 16
Active
43
Bank of Mexico Decision in May
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting
82%
$43.2K
$18.2K
May 6
Active
44
Fed rate hike in 2026?
No
86%
$38.8K
$171.5K
Dec 8
Active
45
Will Trump's first Fed Chair pick be confirmed?
Yes
84%
$36.8K
—
Jul 8
Active
46
How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026?
Yes
72%
$35.3K
—
Jan 7
Active
47
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30
26%
$31.6K
$18.9K
Apr 29
Active
48
Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.2%
99%
$30.9K
—
Aug 11
Active
49
US x Cuba economic deal by…?
June 30, 2026
35%
$30.8K
$30.7K
Jun 29
Active
50
Brent crude oil price on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $80.99
91%
$30.1K
—
May 7
Active
51
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
> 1.0%
87%
$28.8K
—
Jul 30
Active
52
How low will oil (WTI) get by Apr 30, 2026?
$86
99%
$27.9K
—
May 7
Active
53
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027
70%
$27.9K
$144.0K
Dec 30
Active
54
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30
48%
$26.8K
$25.5K
Apr 29
Active
55
How low will the S&P get this year?
No
52%
$25.8K
—
Jan 7
Active
56
How high will the S&P get this year?
7,400 or above
52%
$24.1K
—
Jan 7
Active
57
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
27%
$23.7K
—
Jan 1
Active
58
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before 2027
14%
$23.7K
—
Jan 8
Active
59
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31
71%
$23.4K
$36.8K
Dec 30
Active
60
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes
62%
$22.3K
—
Jan 7
Active
61
Oil Price (WTI) on Apr 21, 2026?
$79+
97%
$22.0K
—
Apr 28
Active
62
People's Bank of China rate change in April?
Will the People's Bank of China not change rates in April
99%
$21.8K
$11.4K
Apr 29
Active
63
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Will
25%
$21.3K
$33.2K
Apr 29
Active
64
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting
62%
$20.3K
$6.9K
Jun 10
Active
65
Central Bank of Colombia Decision in April?
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting
79%
$20.2K
$5.7K
Apr 29
Active
66
How high will inflation get this year?
At least 3.5%
96%
$18.9K
—
Feb 28
Active
67
Brent crude oil price on Apr 20, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $88.00
100%
$18.9K
—
Apr 27
Closing Soon
68
What will Powell say during April Press Conference?
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference
99%
$18.6K
$24.6K
Apr 28
Active
69
CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026?
3.6%
27%
$18.6K
—
Aug 11
Active
70
Jerome Powell out as Fed Governor before August 2026?
Before August
56%
$18.5K
—
Aug 8
Active
71
Will 32BJ SEIU NYC residential building workers strike before May?
No
99%
$18.2K
—
May 2
Active
72
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of April 13 2026?
No
Outcome
$15.2K
—
Apr 17
Closed
73
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision
70%
$15.0K
$20.9K
Apr 28
Active
74
Brent crude oil price on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
> $73.99
97%
$14.9K
—
May 1
Active
75
Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30?
$1.5M
58%
$14.3K
$16.1K
Apr 29
Active
76
How low will oil (WTI) get by end of year?
$85 or below
99%
$14.2K
—
Jan 7
Active
77
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 14, 2026?
the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 14
Outcome
$7.5K
—
Apr 16
Closed
78
Number of US Flights Delayed March 29?
No
Outcome
$3.8K
—
Mar 26
Closed
79
Number of TSA passengers April 13 – April 19?
the total number of TSA passengers for April 13 – April 19
Outcome
$2.4K
—
Apr 18
Closed
80
Number of US Flights Delayed April 12?
the number of US flights delayed on April 12
Outcome
$2.2K
—
Apr 11
Closed