Economics Prediction Markets: Policy, Commodities, Trade
24H Volume
$1.3M
Kalshi
100%
Polymarket
0%
Polymarket US
0%
Active Markets
3,083
Kalshi
3,083
Polymarket
0
Polymarket US
0
Open Interest
Approx. OI
$23.5M
Kalshi
$23.5M
Polymarket
—
Polymarket US
—
Top Market (24H)
$120.6K
Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >104.99 on May 15, 2026?
Today's Top Markets by Volume
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
BM1
Before May 15, 2026
1.0%
BJ1
Before Jun 1, 2026
6.0%
BJ1
Before Jun 15, 2026
13.0%
BJ1
Before Jul 1, 2026
26.0%
BA1
Before Aug 1, 2026
45.0%
BS1
Before Sep 1, 2026
56.0%
BO1
Before Oct 1, 2026
63.0%
BJ1
Before Jan 1, 2027
77.0%
BA1
Before Apr 1, 2027
85.0%
BJ1
Before Jul 1, 2027
89.0%
US gas prices this week
44
> $4.460
100.0%
44
> $4.420
100.0%
44
> $4.400
100.0%
43
> $4.380
100.0%
44
> $4.440
100.0%
43
> $4.360
100.0%
43
> $4.340
100.0%
44
> $4.480
97.0%
45
> $4.500
80.0%
45
> $4.510
48.0%
45
> $4.520
30.0%
45
> $4.530
20.0%
45
> $4.540
4.0%
45
> $4.560
2.0%
45
> $4.580
2.0%
46
> $4.600
1.0%
46
> $4.620
1.0%
46
> $4.640
1.0%
US gas prices on May 16, 2026
44
> $4.485
99.0%
44
> $4.495
99.0%
45
> $4.500
98.0%
44
> $4.490
98.0%
45
> $4.505
97.0%
45
> $4.510
94.0%
45
> $4.515
84.0%
45
> $4.520
75.0%
45
> $4.525
51.0%
45
> $4.530
21.0%
45
> $4.535
3.0%
45
> $4.540
2.0%
45
> $4.545
1.0%
45
> $4.550
1.0%
45
> $4.555
1.0%
45
> $4.560
1.0%
45
> $4.565
1.0%
45
> $4.570
1.0%
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
MR
Maintain rate
97.0%
C2
Cut 25bps
3.0%
H2
Hike 25bps
2.0%
C2
Cut >25bps
1.0%
H2
Hike >25bps
1.0%
Top Economic Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
Displays both open and closed markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Filter by status or platform. Volume based on the last 7 days.
1
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jul 1, 2027
89%
$90.5K
$1.6M
Sep 29
Active
2
US gas prices this week
> $4.460
100%
$51.0K
$122.0K
May 25
Active
3
US gas prices on May 16, 2026
> $4.485
99%
$31.6K
$27.1K
May 23
Active
4
Fed decision in Jun 2026?
Maintain rate
97%
$26.8K
$5.7M
Sep 16
Active
5
When will Powell depart as chair pro tempore?
Before Jun 1, 2026
93%
$11.5K
$14.5K
Jun 8
Active
6
Brent crude oil price on May 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $104
85%
$9.6K
$10.4K
May 25
Active
7
Oil Price (WTI) on May 18, 2026?
> $89.99
97%
$9.6K
$8.4K
May 25
Active
8
Jobs numbers in May 2026?
Above -50,000
97%
$7.9K
$21.4K
Sep 4
Active
9
Inflation in May 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.4%
100%
$7.5K
$59.4K
Sep 9
Active
10
What will the price of GTA VI be on PS5?
More than $60
97%
$7.5K
$101.1K
Jan 1
Active
11
How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?
$120.01+
61%
$7.3K
$766.9K
Jan 7
Active
12
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
1
18%
$6.8K
$536.6K
Jan 1
Active
13
US gasoline CPI for May
> 330
100%
$6.4K
$10.2K
Jun 17
Active
14
Oil Price (WTI) on May 19, 2026?
Above $94.99
86%
$6.2K
$5.7K
May 26
Active
15
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
Maintain rate
91%
$6.1K
$37.1K
Oct 28
Active
16
Gas prices in the US in May 2026?
> $3.90
100%
$5.3K
$102.2K
Jun 7
Active
17
Recession before 2027?
No
81%
$5.2K
$788.5K
Feb 7
Active
18
How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
Above $4.60
91%
$4.5K
$34.3K
Jan 6
Active
19
Brent crude oil price on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> $88.99
93%
$3.7K
$52.3K
Jun 5
Active
20
CPI core in July
Above 0.0%
97%
$3.4K
$2.5K
Aug 19
Active
21
How high will the S&P get this year?
7,800 or above
56%
$3.4K
$67.7K
Jan 7
Active
22
Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?
Yes
77%
$3.0K
$50.2K
Jan 7
Active
23
How high will inflation get this year?
At least 4%
97%
$3.0K
$137.9K
Feb 28
Active
24
US housing starts for April
Above 1.400M
88%
$2.9K
$18.2K
May 28
Active
25
Next Fed rate hike?
By Dec 31, 2027
62%
$2.7K
$147.2K
Jan 1
Active
26
Natural gas price on May 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> 2.870
77%
$2.4K
$2.8K
May 25
Active
27
Fed rate cut before 2027?
No
63%
$2.3K
$112.5K
Jan 1
Active
28
China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026
Above 47.0
96%
$2.1K
$1.9K
Jun 6
Active
29
Will the 10 year US Treasury yield end May 2026 above 4.35%?
Yes
90%
$1.7K
$3.3K
May 30
Active
30
Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 3.4%
99%
$1.4K
$6.8K
Nov 11
Active
31
CPI in May
> -0.2%
100%
$1.4K
$14.1K
Sep 9
Active
32
Will exactly 100% of the allowances offered in the Current Auction of CARB Joint Auction #47 be sold?
Yes
89%
$1.3K
$1.6K
May 30
Active
33
Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16th
190,000+
97%
$1.3K
$2.4K
May 28
Active
34
How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027?
> $900 Billion
86%
$1.1K
$22.7K
Jan 1
Active
35
More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Yes
88%
$1.0K
$153.8K
Mar 31
Active
36
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
> 0.0%
96%
$984
$12.8K
Oct 29
Active
37
Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY)
Above 2.6%
97%
$903
$8.6K
Oct 13
Active
38
Will Trump order more tariffs in May 2026?
No
61%
$837
$14.5K
Jun 8
Active
39
China industrial production YoY for April 2026
Above 2.0%
100%
$824
$6.0K
May 24
Active
40
Will the S&P finish positive this year?
Yes
71%
$783
$374.4K
Jan 7
Active
41
Bank of Japan rate decision in June
Hike 25bps
77%
$633
$5.6K
Jun 22
Active
42
Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
> 2.75%
96%
$621
$5.0K
Sep 23
Active
43
Japan inflation rate YoY for April 2026
Above 1.3%
93%
$556
$682
May 28
Active
44
Will the official Settlement Price for the Current Auction of CARB Joint Auction #47 strictly exceed $27.94?
Yes
53%
$514
$102.4K
May 30
Active
45
Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?
Forward Guidance Removed
73%
$497
$1.3K
Jan 8
Active
46
Germany inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026
> 2.4%
99%
$470
$400
Jun 5
Active
47
Fed funds rate after Jun 2026 meeting?
Above 3.25%
99%
$468
$112.6K
Jun 24
Active
48
Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
> 2.1%
100%
$373
$640
Aug 19
Active
49
Which bank will take SpaceX public?
Goldman Sachs
95%
$340
$28.7K
Jan 8
Active
50
Argentina inflation rate MoM for May
Above 2.0%
86%
$293
$911
Jun 18
Active
51
How high will gas prices in Florida get this year?
Above $4.50
100%
$267
$2.3K
Jan 7
Active
52
Italy inflation rate YoY prel for May 2026
Above 2.5%
95%
$215
$1.1K
Jun 5
Active
53
UK inflation rate YoY for April 2026
Above 1.9%
99%
$207
$658
May 26
Active
54
Oil Price (WTI) on May 22, 2026?
Above $107.99
30%
$203
$219
May 29
Active
55
Japan balance of trade for April 2026
Above -900B JPY
93%
$198
$451
May 27
Active
56
China retail sales YoY for April 2026
Above -0.5%
99%
$167
$1.8K
May 24
Active
57
Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
1
6%
$101
$93.1K
Jan 1
Active
58
Who will chair the June FOMC meeting?
Kevin Warsh
99%
$84
$28.9K
Jun 24
Active
59
US retail sales in May
Above 0.0%
78%
$37
$493
Jun 24
Active
60
Reserve Bank of India rate decision in June
Maintain rate
40%
$32
$591
Jun 11
Active
61
Copper price on May 18, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
> 5.90
92%
$17
$5
May 25
Active
62
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
$40 Trillion
98%
$5
$4.3K
Mar 31
Active
63
Will Canada housing starts go above 300K in 2026?
No
71%
$1
$2
Jan 25
Active