Prediction Markets 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee

2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

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Updated 38 minutes ago · 4:00 AM PDT

Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic nomination at 26.6%, holding frontrunner status off a February book tour that doubled as a campaign prelude and a Guardian quote about "stepping into that void" if no one else brings the fire. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a 9.0% chance, still weighing a presidential run against a 2028 Senate primary challenge to Chuck Schumer. Kamala Harris rounds out the top three at 7.2% after a recent rally in Augusta where he tore into the "Mar-a-Lago Mafia" over the Iran war, affordability, and corruption. DeFi Rate's custom odds tracker blends live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Forecastex into a single consensus probability, refreshed hourly.

Largest Spread

2.61%

Jon Ossoff → View arbs

Current Favorite

26.6%

Gavin Newsom 8.3%

24H Volume (Share)

$2.2M

Momentum Leader

+3.4%

Kamala Harris YTD change

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Gavin Newsom

Vol $29.0K Spread 51.5%

Agg 26.6%

↓ -8.3%

California Governor

F 76.0%

P 27.1%

K 24.5%

ForecastEx 76.0%

Vol $0 76¢

Polymarket 27.1%

Vol $23.4K 27–27.1¢

Kalshi 24.5%

Vol $5.5K 24–25¢

AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Vol $19.5K Spread 1.2%

Agg 9.0%

↓ -3.5%

NY Representative

F 10.0%

K 9.5%

P 8.9%

ForecastEx 10.0%

Vol $0 10¢

Kalshi 9.5%

Vol $3.6K 9.4–9.5¢

Polymarket 8.9%

Vol $16.0K 8.8–8.9¢

Kamala Harris

Vol $23.6K Spread 4.4%

Agg 7.2%

↑ +3.4%

F 11.0%

P 7.6%

K 6.7%

ForecastEx 11.0%

Vol $0 11¢

Polymarket 7.6%

Vol $13.6K 7.6–7.7¢

Kalshi 6.7%

Vol $10.0K 6.3–7¢

Jon Ossoff

Vol $16.5K Spread 2.8%

Agg 6.0%

↑ +2.3%

K 8.7%

P 5.9%

Kalshi 8.7%

Vol $705 8.6–8.8¢

Polymarket 5.9%

Vol $15.8K 5.8–5.9¢

Pete Buttigieg

Vol $16.3K Spread 3.6%

Agg 4.5%

↓ -0.1%

F 8.0%

K 5.6%

P 4.5%

ForecastEx 8.0%

Vol $0 8¢

Kalshi 5.6%

Vol $729 5.5–5.6¢

Polymarket 4.5%

Vol $15.6K 4.4–4.5¢

Josh Shapiro

Vol $24.1K Spread 5.1%

Agg 3.9%

↓ -1.5%

F 9.0%

K 5.4%

P 3.9%

ForecastEx 9.0%

Vol $0 9¢

Kalshi 5.4%

Vol $407 5.3–5.5¢

Polymarket 3.9%

Vol $23.7K 3.8–3.9¢

Mark Kelly

Vol $13.7K Spread 1.3%

Agg 2.7%

↑ +0.8%

K 3.8%

P 2.6%

Kalshi 3.8%

Vol $1.6K 3.7–3.9¢

Polymarket 2.6%

Vol $12.1K 2.5–2.6¢

James Talarico

Vol $13.6K Spread —

Agg 2.7%

↑ +2.2%

K 2.7%

Kalshi 2.7%

Vol $13.6K 2.5–2.8¢

Andy Beshear

Vol $5.9K Spread 6.8%

Agg 2.4%

↓ -2.4%

F 9.0%

K 4.0%

P 2.3%

ForecastEx 9.0%

Vol $0 9¢

Kalshi 4.0%

Vol $553 3.8–4.1¢

Polymarket 2.3%

Vol $5.3K 2.2–2.3¢

Rahm Emanuel

Vol $42.2K Spread 1.7%

Agg 2.1%

↑ +0.1%

K 3.8%

P 2.1%

Kalshi 3.8%

Vol $526 3.7–3.8¢

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $41.7K 1.9–2.2¢

JBP

J.B. Pritzker

Vol $35.7K Spread 2.1%

Agg 2.1%

↓ -0.1%

F 4.0%

K 2.7%

P 2.0%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 2.7%

Vol $5.0K 2.6–2.8¢

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $30.7K 1.9–2¢

Ro Khanna

Vol $9.5K Spread 1.0%

Agg 2.0%

↑ +0.7%

K 3.1%

P 2.0%

Kalshi 3.1%

Vol $23 3–3.1¢

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $9.5K 1.9–2.1¢

Jon Stewart

Vol $38.2K Spread 1.0%

Agg 1.5%

↑ +0.6%

Comedian

P 2.3%

K 1.2%

Polymarket 2.3%

Vol $9.3K 2.2–2.3¢

Kalshi 1.2%

Vol $28.9K 1.1–1.3¢

Gretchen Whitmer

Vol $23.4K Spread 2.7%

Agg 1.3%

↓ -3.2%

F 4.0%

P 1.4%

K 1.3%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $22.3K 1.3–1.4¢

Kalshi 1.3%

Vol $1.2K 1.2–1.4¢

Wes Moore

Vol $173.9K Spread 3.8%

Agg 1.3%

↓ -1.1%

F 5.0%

K 2.0%

P 1.3%

ForecastEx 5.0%

Vol $0 5¢

Kalshi 2.0%

Vol $3.6K 1.9–2¢

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $170.3K 1.2–1.3¢

Roy Cooper

Vol $19.9K Spread 0.7%

Agg 1.1%

↑ +0.5%

P 1.2%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $19.8K 1.1–1.2¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $63 0.4–0.5¢

SAS

Stephen A. Smith

Vol $67.4K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.1%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $62.4K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $5.0K 0.5–0.6¢

Michelle Obama

Vol $29.3K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

K 1.4%

P 1.0%

Kalshi 1.4%

Vol $700 1.3–1.5¢

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $28.6K 0.9–1¢

Chelsea Clinton

Vol $23.0K Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.4%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $23.0K 0.9–1¢

Cory Booker

Vol $36.5K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.0%

K 0.9%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $36.5K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.9%

Vol $30 0.8–0.9¢

John Fetterman

Vol $111.0K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.9%

↓ -0.3%

P 1.0%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $110.9K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $56 0.1–0.3¢

Mark Cuban

Vol $157.9K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.0%

K 0.8%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $136.0K 0.9–1¢

Kalshi 0.8%

Vol $21.9K 0.7–0.8¢

Elissa Slotkin

Vol $38 Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.3%

K 0.8%

Kalshi 0.8%

Vol $38 0.7–0.9¢

Barack Obama

Vol $46.9K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.3%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $46.9K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $0 0.2–0.3¢

Hilary Clinton

Vol $41.9K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $41.9K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $0 0.1–0.2¢

Jared Polis

Vol $37.6K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $37.6K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.4–0.5¢

Lebron James

Vol $56.2K Spread 0.7%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.1%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $56.2K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.1%

Vol $0 0–0.1¢

Liz Cheney

Vol $61.3K Spread 0.7%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.1%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $61.3K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.1%

Vol $0 0–0.1¢

MrBeast

Vol $39.5K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $39.5K 0.7–0.8¢

Oprah Winfrey

Vol $32.4K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $32.4K 0.7–0.8¢

Raphael Warnock

Vol $30.3K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.4%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $30.3K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.4%

Vol $0 0.3–0.5¢

Zohran Mamdani

Vol $32.7K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.2%

NYC Mayor

P 0.8%

K 0.3%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $32.5K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $158 0.2–0.3¢

Ruben Gallego

Vol $85.3K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.4%

K 0.8%

P 0.7%

Kalshi 0.8%

Vol $9.9K 0.7–0.8¢

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $75.3K 0.6–0.8¢

Andrew Yang

Vol $26.5K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $26.5K 0.6–0.7¢

Bernie Sanders

Vol $38.2K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.7%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $38.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $0 0.1–0.2¢

Chris Murphy

Vol $81.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $81.8K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $8 0.5–0.6¢

George Clooney

Vol $35.2K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $35.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Jasmine Crockett

Vol $27.8K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $27.8K 0.6–0.7¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $45.0K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $45.0K 0.6–0.7¢

Phil Murphy

Vol $15.4K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.1%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $15.4K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.1%

Vol $0 0–0.1¢

Tim Walz

Vol $27.8K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $27.8K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $1 0.1–0.2¢

Gina Raimondo

Vol $124.2K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.6%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.7%

K 0.3%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $123.8K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.3%

Vol $360 0.2–0.3¢

BOR

Beto O’Rourke

Vol $243.5K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $243.5K 0.5–0.6¢

Jamie Dimon

Vol $12.5K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $12.5K 0.4–0.6¢

Hunter Biden

Vol $84.5K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $54.5K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $30.0K 0.1–0.2¢

Dwayne Johnson

Vol $29.8K Spread 0.9%

Agg 0.3%

↓ -0.9%

P 1.1%

K 0.2%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $4.5K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.2%

Vol $25.3K 0.1–0.3¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	26.6% ↓ -8.3%	51.5%	$29.0K	Kalshi 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $5.5K	Polymarket 27.1% 27–27.1¢ Vol $23.4K	ForecastEx 76.0% 76¢ Vol $0
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	9.0% ↓ -3.5%	1.2%	$19.5K	Kalshi 9.5% 9.4–9.5¢ Vol $3.6K	Polymarket 8.9% 8.8–8.9¢ Vol $16.0K	ForecastEx 10.0% 10¢ Vol $0
KH Kamala Harris	7.2% ↑ +3.4%	4.4%	$23.6K	Kalshi 6.7% 6.3–7¢ Vol $10.0K	Polymarket 7.6% 7.6–7.7¢ Vol $13.6K	ForecastEx 11.0% 11¢ Vol $0
JO Jon Ossoff	6.0% ↑ +2.3%	2.8%	$16.5K	Kalshi 8.7% 8.6–8.8¢ Vol $705	Polymarket 5.9% 5.8–5.9¢ Vol $15.8K	ForecastEx — —
PB Pete Buttigieg	4.5% ↓ -0.1%	3.6%	$16.3K	Kalshi 5.6% 5.5–5.6¢ Vol $729	Polymarket 4.5% 4.4–4.5¢ Vol $15.6K	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $0
JS Josh Shapiro	3.9% ↓ -1.5%	5.1%	$24.1K	Kalshi 5.4% 5.3–5.5¢ Vol $407	Polymarket 3.9% 3.8–3.9¢ Vol $23.7K	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $0
MK Mark Kelly	2.7% ↑ +0.8%	1.3%	$13.7K	Kalshi 3.8% 3.7–3.9¢ Vol $1.6K	Polymarket 2.6% 2.5–2.6¢ Vol $12.1K	ForecastEx — —
JT James Talarico	2.7% ↑ +2.2%	—	$13.6K	Kalshi 2.7% 2.5–2.8¢ Vol $13.6K	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
AB Andy Beshear	2.4% ↓ -2.4%	6.8%	$5.9K	Kalshi 4.0% 3.8–4.1¢ Vol $553	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $5.3K	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $0
RE Rahm Emanuel	2.1% ↑ +0.1%	1.7%	$42.2K	Kalshi 3.8% 3.7–3.8¢ Vol $526	Polymarket 2.1% 1.9–2.2¢ Vol $41.7K	ForecastEx — —
JBP J.B. Pritzker	2.1% ↓ -0.1%	2.1%	$35.7K	Kalshi 2.7% 2.6–2.8¢ Vol $5.0K	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2¢ Vol $30.7K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
RK Ro Khanna	2.0% ↑ +0.7%	1.0%	$9.5K	Kalshi 3.1% 3–3.1¢ Vol $23	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2.1¢ Vol $9.5K	ForecastEx — —
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	1.5% ↑ +0.6%	1.0%	$38.2K	Kalshi 1.2% 1.1–1.3¢ Vol $28.9K	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $9.3K	ForecastEx — —
GW Gretchen Whitmer	1.3% ↓ -3.2%	2.7%	$23.4K	Kalshi 1.3% 1.2–1.4¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $22.3K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
WM Wes Moore	1.3% ↓ -1.1%	3.8%	$173.9K	Kalshi 2.0% 1.9–2¢ Vol $3.6K	Polymarket 1.3% 1.2–1.3¢ Vol $170.3K	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
RC Roy Cooper	1.1% ↑ +0.5%	0.7%	$19.9K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $63	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $19.8K	ForecastEx — —
SAS Stephen A. Smith	1.0% ↑ +0.1%	0.5%	$67.4K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $5.0K	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $62.4K	ForecastEx — —
MO Michelle Obama	1.0% — +0.0%	0.5%	$29.3K	Kalshi 1.4% 1.3–1.5¢ Vol $700	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $28.6K	ForecastEx — —
CC Chelsea Clinton	1.0% ↑ +0.4%	—	$23.0K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $23.0K	ForecastEx — —
CB Cory Booker	0.9% ↑ +0.2%	0.1%	$36.5K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $30	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $36.5K	ForecastEx — —
JF John Fetterman	0.9% ↓ -0.3%	0.8%	$111.0K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.3¢ Vol $56	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $110.9K	ForecastEx — —
MC Mark Cuban	0.9% ↑ +0.2%	0.2%	$157.9K	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $21.9K	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $136.0K	ForecastEx — —
ES Elissa Slotkin	0.8% ↑ +0.3%	—	$38	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.9¢ Vol $38	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
BO Barack Obama	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.5%	$46.9K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $46.9K	ForecastEx — —
HC Hilary Clinton	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.6%	$41.9K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $41.9K	ForecastEx — —
JP Jared Polis	0.8% ↓ -0.2%	0.3%	$37.6K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $37.6K	ForecastEx — —
LJ Lebron James	0.8% ↓ -0.1%	0.7%	$56.2K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $56.2K	ForecastEx — —
LC Liz Cheney	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.7%	$61.3K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $61.3K	ForecastEx — —
MR MrBeast	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	—	$39.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $39.5K	ForecastEx — —
OW Oprah Winfrey	0.8% ↑ +0.3%	—	$32.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $32.4K	ForecastEx — —
RW Raphael Warnock	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$30.3K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $30.3K	ForecastEx — —
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	0.7% ↑ +0.2%	0.5%	$32.7K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $158	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $32.5K	ForecastEx — —
RG Ruben Gallego	0.7% ↓ -0.4%	0.0%	$85.3K	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $9.9K	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.8¢ Vol $75.3K	ForecastEx — —
AY Andrew Yang	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	—	$26.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $26.5K	ForecastEx — —
BS Bernie Sanders	0.7% ↑ +0.2%	0.5%	$38.2K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $38.2K	ForecastEx — —
CM Chris Murphy	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$81.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $8	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $81.8K	ForecastEx — —
GC George Clooney	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	—	$35.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $35.2K	ForecastEx — —
JC Jasmine Crockett	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	—	$27.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $27.8K	ForecastEx — —
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$45.0K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $45.0K	ForecastEx — —
PM Phil Murphy	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.6%	$15.4K	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $15.4K	ForecastEx — —
TW Tim Walz	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.5%	$27.8K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $27.8K	ForecastEx — —
GR Gina Raimondo	0.6% ↑ +0.2%	0.4%	$124.2K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $360	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $123.8K	ForecastEx — —
BOR Beto O’Rourke	0.5% ↓ -0.3%	—	$243.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $243.5K	ForecastEx — —
JD Jamie Dimon	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$12.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $12.5K	Polymarket — —	ForecastEx — —
HB Hunter Biden	0.5% ↓ -0.1%	0.5%	$84.5K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $30.0K	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $54.5K	ForecastEx — —
DJ Dwayne Johnson	0.3% ↓ -0.9%	0.9%	$29.8K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.3¢ Vol $25.3K	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $4.5K	ForecastEx — —

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Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5.9¢	Sell @ K 8.6¢	+2.70%	+2.61%	Yes
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 25¢	Sell @ P 27¢	+2.00%	+1.75%	Yes
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.3¢	Sell @ K 3.8¢	+1.50%	+1.43%	No
RE Rahm Emanuel	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.2¢	Sell @ K 3.7¢	+1.50%	+1.43%	No
JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.9¢	Sell @ K 5.3¢	+1.40%	+1.33%	No
MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.6¢	Sell @ K 3.7¢	+1.10%	+1.03%	No
PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.5¢	Sell @ K 5.5¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.3¢	Sell @ P 2.2¢	+0.90%	+0.83%	No
RK Ro Khanna	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.90%	+0.83%	No
DJ Dwayne Johnson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.3¢	Sell @ K 1.9¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
LJ Lebron James	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
LC Liz Cheney	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
RC Roy Cooper	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 1.1¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
JF John Fetterman	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2¢	Sell @ K 2.6¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 7¢	Sell @ P 7.6¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
HC Hilary Clinton	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
PM Phil Murphy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 8.9¢	Sell @ K 9.4¢	+0.50%	+0.41%	No
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
BO Barack Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
BS Bernie Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
TW Tim Walz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
HB Hunter Biden	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
GR Gina Raimondo	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
MO Michelle Obama	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1.3¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No
JP Jared Polis	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
RW Raphael Warnock	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
MC Mark Cuban	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.8¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
CM Chris Murphy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
CB Cory Booker	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.9¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
RG Ruben Gallego	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 0.7¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1.4¢	Sell @ P 1.3¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
GN Gavin Newsom	RE Rahm Emanuel	Polymarket	A 27.1%	B 2.1%	+25.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 27.1%	B 2.3%	+24.80%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Jon Stewart	Polymarket	A 27.1%	B 2.3%	+24.80%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 27.1%	B 2.6%	+24.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 27.1%	B 3.9%	+23.20%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 27.1%	B 4.5%	+22.60%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	RK Ro Khanna	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 3.1%	+21.45%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket	A 27.1%	B 5.9%	+21.20%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	RE Rahm Emanuel	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 3.8%	+20.75%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 3.8%	+20.70%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 4.0%	+20.55%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 27.1%	B 7.6%	+19.40%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 5.4%	+19.10%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 5.6%	+18.95%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 27.1%	B 8.9%	+18.20%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 6.7%	+17.85%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 8.7%	+15.80%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 9.5%	+15.05%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	RE Rahm Emanuel	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 2.1%	+6.80%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 2.3%	+6.60%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JS Jon Stewart	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 2.3%	+6.60%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	RK Ro Khanna	Kalshi	A 9.5%	B 3.1%	+6.40%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 8.9%	B 2.6%	+6.30%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	RE Rahm Emanuel	Kalshi	A 9.5%	B 3.8%	+5.70%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 9.5%	B 3.8%	+5.65%	Buy spread
JO Jon Ossoff	RK Ro Khanna	Kalshi	A 8.7%	B 3.1%	+5.65%	Buy spread
KH Kamala Harris	RE Rahm Emanuel	Polymarket	A 7.6%	B 2.1%	+5.60%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 9.5%	B 4.0%	+5.50%	Buy spread
KH Kamala Harris	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 7.6%	B 2.3%	+5.40%	Buy spread
KH Kamala Harris	JS Jon Stewart	Polymarket	A 7.6%	B 2.3%	+5.40%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

Prediction Markets 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee

2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

Probability Over Time

Current Odds Snapshot

Arbitrage Scanner

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome Diff

Methodology & Data Mapping