2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds
Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic nomination at 26.7%, holding frontrunner status off a February book tour that doubled as a campaign prelude and a Guardian quote about "stepping into that void" if no one else brings the fire. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a 8.4% chance, still weighing a presidential run against a 2028 Senate primary challenge to Chuck Schumer. Jon Ossoff rounds out the top three at 7.8% after a recent rally in Augusta where he tore into the "Mar-a-Lago Mafia" over the Iran war, affordability, and corruption. DeFi Rate's custom odds tracker blends live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Forecastex into a single consensus probability, refreshed hourly.
Probability Over Time
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