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2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

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Updated 10 minutes ago · 10:40 AM PST

California Governor Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee odds at 36% probability, down slightly from 37% as rivals plot to undermine his frontrunner status. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits at 10.5% (+809) while Vice President Kamala Harris has climbed to 5.3% (+1800). Harris's odds ticked up following her DNC winter meeting speech unveiling new 'both parties failed' message.Our Democratic nominee odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi and Polymarket to show consensus probabilities across both prediction markets. This data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).

Largest Spread

1.83%

Mark Kelly → View arbs

Consensus Leader

34.5%

Gavin Newsom

24H Volume (Share)

$5.1M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Gavin Newsom

Vol $52.2K Spread 8.0%

Agg 34.5%

— +0.0%

California Governor

F 42.0%

P 34.5%

K 34.0%

ForecastEx 42.0%

Vol $0 42¢

Polymarket 34.5%

Vol $48.4K 34–35¢

Kalshi 34.0%

Vol $3.8K 33–35¢

AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Vol $22.4K Spread 7.5%

Agg 9.5%

↓ -0.5%

NY Representative

F 17.0%

K 9.5%

P 9.5%

ForecastEx 17.0%

Vol $0 17¢

Kalshi 9.5%

Vol $1.8K 9–10¢

Polymarket 9.5%

Vol $20.6K 9–10¢

Josh Shapiro

Vol $18.2K Spread 4.5%

Agg 6.6%

↓ -0.2%

F 11.0%

K 7.0%

P 6.6%

ForecastEx 11.0%

Vol $0 11¢

Kalshi 7.0%

Vol $1.2K 6–8¢

Polymarket 6.6%

Vol $17.0K 6.5–6.6¢

Beshear

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

— +0.0%

F 5.0%

ForecastEx 5.0%

Vol $0 5¢

Pete Buttigieg

Vol $6.1K Spread 3.5%

Agg 4.5%

— +0.0%

F 8.0%

K 4.5%

P 4.5%

ForecastEx 8.0%

Vol $0 8¢

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $304 4–5¢

Polymarket 4.5%

Vol $5.8K 4–5¢

Kamala Harris

Vol $31.7K Spread 6.8%

Agg 4.3%

— +0.0%

F 11.0%

K 5.5%

P 4.2%

ForecastEx 11.0%

Vol $0 11¢

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $1.8K 5–6¢

Polymarket 4.2%

Vol $29.9K 4.1–4.3¢

Andy Beshear

Vol $20.5K Spread 1.0%

Agg 3.6%

↓ -0.3%

K 4.5%

P 3.6%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $262 4–5¢

Polymarket 3.6%

Vol $20.2K 3.5–3.6¢

Jon Ossoff

Vol $23.1K Spread 2.0%

Agg 3.6%

↑ +0.1%

K 5.5%

P 3.6%

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $19 5–6¢

Polymarket 3.6%

Vol $23.1K 3.5–3.6¢

JBP

J.B. Pritzker

Vol $19.3K Spread 0.6%

Agg 3.4%

↑ +0.3%

F 4.0%

K 3.5%

P 3.4%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $190 3–4¢

Polymarket 3.4%

Vol $19.1K 3.2–3.5¢

Jon Stewart

Vol $85.1K Spread 0.7%

Agg 2.2%

↑ +0.9%

Comedian

P 2.2%

K 1.5%

Polymarket 2.2%

Vol $84.0K 2.1–2.3¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $1.1K 1–2¢

Mark Kelly

Vol $48.0K Spread 2.5%

Agg 2.1%

↓ -0.6%

K 4.5%

P 2.0%

Kalshi 4.5%

Vol $1.2K 4–5¢

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $46.8K 1.9–2.1¢

Wes Moore

Vol $9.1K Spread 6.1%

Agg 2.0%

↓ -0.1%

F 8.0%

K 3.5%

P 2.0%

ForecastEx 8.0%

Vol $0 8¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $154 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $8.9K 1.9–2¢

Gretchen Whitmer

Vol $35.3K Spread 2.1%

Agg 2.0%

↓ -0.1%

F 4.0%

K 3.5%

P 2.0%

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $0 4¢

Kalshi 3.5%

Vol $475 3–4¢

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $34.9K 1.9–2¢

Ro Khanna

Vol $6.3K Spread 0.6%

Agg 2.0%

— +0.0%

K 2.5%

P 2.0%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $86 2–3¢

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $6.2K 1.9–2¢

Rahm Emanuel

Vol $5.9K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.9%

↓ -0.4%

K 2.5%

P 1.9%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $61 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.9%

Vol $5.8K 1.8–2¢

James Talarico

Vol $99 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $99 1–2¢

Ruben Gallego

Vol $15.7K Spread 1.2%

Agg 1.4%

↑ +0.1%

K 2.5%

P 1.4%

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $44 2–3¢

Polymarket 1.4%

Vol $15.6K 1.3–1.4¢

John Fetterman

Vol $129.2K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.1%

— +0.0%

P 1.1%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.1%

Vol $129.2K 1–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Dwayne Johnson

Vol $43.7K Spread 0.5%

Agg 1.0%

— +0.0%

P 1.0%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $43.6K 0.9–1.1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $12 0–1¢

SAS

Stephen A. Smith

Vol $66.8K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

K 1.5%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $79 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $66.7K 0.8–1¢

Jared Polis

Vol $9.7K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $9.7K 0.8–1¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Cory Booker

Vol $45.6K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $105 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $45.5K 0.8–0.9¢

Lebron James

Vol $143.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.9%

— +0.0%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $143.8K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Michelle Obama

Vol $187.8K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.9%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $187.8K 0.8–0.9¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $31 0–1¢

Zohran Mamdani

Vol $60.1K Spread 0.8%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.1%

NYC Mayor

K 1.5%

P 0.8%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $7 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $60.1K 0.7–0.8¢

Roy Cooper

Vol $473.0K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

↑ +0.2%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $473.0K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Barack Obama

Vol $77.0K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $77.0K 0.7–0.8¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Phil Murphy

Vol $62.9K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $62.9K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Mark Cuban

Vol $76.1K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $76.1K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $11 0–1¢

Gina Raimondo

Vol $205.1K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $205.1K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Bernie Sanders

Vol $493.2K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $493.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Hilary Clinton

Vol $250.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $250.8K 0.6–0.7¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Chelsea Clinton

Vol $138.8K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $138.8K 0.6–0.7¢

Oprah Winfrey

Vol $298.0K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $298.0K 0.6–0.7¢

Andrew Yang

Vol $116.9K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $116.9K 0.6–0.7¢

BOR

Beto O’Rourke

Vol $133.0K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $133.0K 0.6–0.7¢

Kim Kardashian

Vol $275.1K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

— +0.0%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $275.1K 0.6–0.7¢

Tim Walz

Vol $172.7K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $172.7K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $8 0–1¢

Raphael Warnock

Vol $55.6K Spread 1.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $2 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $55.6K 0.5–0.6¢

Liz Cheney

Vol $239.0K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $239.0K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Hunter Biden

Vol $245.6K Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $245.6K 0.5–0.6¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Chris Murphy

Vol $141.2K Spread 1.0%

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 1.5%

P 0.5%

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $0 1–2¢

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $141.2K 0.5–0.6¢

George Clooney

Vol $112.2K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $112.2K 0.5–0.6¢

MrBeast

Vol $238.3K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $238.3K 0.5–0.6¢

Jamie Dimon

Vol $41 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $41 0–1¢

Elissa Slotkin

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.5%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Jasmine Crockett

Vol $244.5K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $244.5K 0.4–0.6¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	34.5% — +0.0%	8.0%	$52.2K	Kalshi 34.0% 33–35¢ Vol $3.8K	Polymarket 34.5% 34–35¢ Vol $48.4K	ForecastEx 42.0% 42¢ Vol $0
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	9.5% ↓ -0.5%	7.5%	$22.4K	Kalshi 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $20.6K	ForecastEx 17.0% 17¢ Vol $0
JS Josh Shapiro	6.6% ↓ -0.2%	4.5%	$18.2K	Kalshi 7.0% 6–8¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket 6.6% 6.5–6.6¢ Vol $17.0K	ForecastEx 11.0% 11¢ Vol $0
BE Beshear	5.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
PB Pete Buttigieg	4.5% — +0.0%	3.5%	$6.1K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $304	Polymarket 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $5.8K	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $0
KH Kamala Harris	4.3% — +0.0%	6.8%	$31.7K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $1.8K	Polymarket 4.2% 4.1–4.3¢ Vol $29.9K	ForecastEx 11.0% 11¢ Vol $0
AB Andy Beshear	3.6% ↓ -0.3%	1.0%	$20.5K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $262	Polymarket 3.6% 3.5–3.6¢ Vol $20.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JO Jon Ossoff	3.6% ↑ +0.1%	2.0%	$23.1K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $19	Polymarket 3.6% 3.5–3.6¢ Vol $23.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JBP J.B. Pritzker	3.4% ↑ +0.3%	0.6%	$19.3K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $190	Polymarket 3.4% 3.2–3.5¢ Vol $19.1K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	2.2% ↑ +0.9%	0.7%	$85.1K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $1.1K	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.3¢ Vol $84.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MK Mark Kelly	2.1% ↓ -0.6%	2.5%	$48.0K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2.1¢ Vol $46.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
WM Wes Moore	2.0% ↓ -0.1%	6.1%	$9.1K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $154	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2¢ Vol $8.9K	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $0
GW Gretchen Whitmer	2.0% ↓ -0.1%	2.1%	$35.3K	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $475	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2¢ Vol $34.9K	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $0
RK Ro Khanna	2.0% — +0.0%	0.6%	$6.3K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $86	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2¢ Vol $6.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RE Rahm Emanuel	1.9% ↓ -0.4%	0.6%	$5.9K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $61	Polymarket 1.9% 1.8–2¢ Vol $5.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JT James Talarico	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$99	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $99	Polymarket — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RG Ruben Gallego	1.4% ↑ +0.1%	1.2%	$15.7K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $44	Polymarket 1.4% 1.3–1.4¢ Vol $15.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JF John Fetterman	1.1% — +0.0%	0.6%	$129.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $129.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
DJ Dwayne Johnson	1.0% — +0.0%	0.5%	$43.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $12	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1.1¢ Vol $43.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
SAS Stephen A. Smith	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	0.6%	$66.8K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $79	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $66.7K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JP Jared Polis	0.9% — +0.0%	0.4%	$9.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $9.7K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
CB Cory Booker	0.9% — +0.0%	0.6%	$45.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $105	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $45.5K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
LJ Lebron James	0.9% — +0.0%	0.4%	$143.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $143.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MO Michelle Obama	0.8% ↓ -0.1%	0.4%	$187.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $31	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $187.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	0.8% ↑ +0.1%	0.8%	$60.1K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $7	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $60.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RC Roy Cooper	0.8% ↑ +0.2%	0.2%	$473.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $473.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BO Barack Obama	0.8% — +0.0%	0.2%	$77.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $77.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
PM Phil Murphy	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$62.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $62.9K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MC Mark Cuban	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$76.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $11	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $76.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
GR Gina Raimondo	0.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.1%	$205.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $205.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BS Bernie Sanders	0.7% ↑ +0.1%	0.1%	$493.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $493.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
HC Hilary Clinton	0.7% — +0.0%	0.1%	$250.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $250.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
CC Chelsea Clinton	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$138.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $138.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
OW Oprah Winfrey	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$298.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $298.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
AY Andrew Yang	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$116.9K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $116.9K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BOR Beto O’Rourke	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$133.0K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $133.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% — +0.0%	—	$275.1K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $275.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
TW Tim Walz	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$172.7K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $8	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $172.7K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RW Raphael Warnock	0.5% — +0.0%	1.0%	$55.6K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $55.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
LC Liz Cheney	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$239.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $239.0K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
HB Hunter Biden	0.5% — +0.0%	0.0%	$245.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $245.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
CM Chris Murphy	0.5% — +0.0%	1.0%	$141.2K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $141.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
GC George Clooney	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$112.2K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $112.2K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MR MrBeast	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$238.3K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $238.3K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JD Jamie Dimon	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$41	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $41	Polymarket — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
ES Elissa Slotkin	0.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JC Jasmine Crockett	0.5% ↑ +0.1%	—	$244.5K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $244.5K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+1.90%	+1.83%	Yes
JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.6¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+1.40%	+1.33%	No
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No
KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.3¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No
RG Ruben Gallego	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.4¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.6¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
RW Raphael Warnock	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
CM Chris Murphy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.6¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
ZM Zohran Mamdani NYC Mayor	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No
JS Jon Stewart Comedian	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2¢	Sell @ P 2.1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
CB Cory Booker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.9¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No
RK Ro Khanna	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
RE Rahm Emanuel	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
JF John Fetterman	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
DJ Dwayne Johnson	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No
JP Jared Polis	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
LJ Lebron James	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
MO Michelle Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
RC Roy Cooper	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
BO Barack Obama	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
PM Phil Murphy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
MC Mark Cuban	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
GR Gina Raimondo	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
BS Bernie Sanders	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
HC Hilary Clinton	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	-0.40%	-0.47%	No
TW Tim Walz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
LC Liz Cheney	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
HB Hunter Biden	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 1¢	Sell @ P 0.5¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.5¢	Sell @ K 3¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 6.6¢	Sell @ K 6¢	-0.60%	-0.67%	No
GN Gavin Newsom California Governor	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 35¢	Sell @ P 34¢	-1.00%	-1.35%	No
PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 5¢	Sell @ P 4¢	-1.00%	-1.07%	No
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez NY Representative	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 10¢	Sell @ P 9¢	-1.00%	-1.10%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 34.50%	B 2.00%	+32.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Jon Stewart	Polymarket	A 34.50%	B 2.20%	+32.30%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 34.50%	B 3.35%	+31.15%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 34.50%	B 3.55%	+30.95%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket	A 34.50%	B 3.55%	+30.95%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 34.00%	B 3.50%	+30.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 34.00%	B 3.50%	+30.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 34.50%	B 4.20%	+30.30%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 34.50%	B 4.50%	+30.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 34.00%	B 4.50%	+29.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 34.00%	B 4.50%	+29.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 34.00%	B 4.50%	+29.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 34.00%	B 5.50%	+28.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JO Jon Ossoff	Kalshi	A 34.00%	B 5.50%	+28.50%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 34.50%	B 6.55%	+27.95%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 34.00%	B 7.00%	+27.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 34.50%	B 9.50%	+25.00%	Buy spread
GN Gavin Newsom	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 34.00%	B 9.50%	+24.50%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 2.00%	+7.50%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JS Jon Stewart	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 2.20%	+7.30%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 3.35%	+6.15%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JBP J.B. Pritzker	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 3.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	WM Wes Moore	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 3.50%	+6.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 3.55%	+5.95%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JO Jon Ossoff	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 3.55%	+5.95%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 4.20%	+5.30%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 4.50%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 4.50%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	MK Mark Kelly	Kalshi	A 9.50%	B 4.50%	+5.00%	Buy spread
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 9.50%	B 4.50%	+5.00%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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