Who Will Win 2028 US Presidential Race: Odds & Predictions

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Updated 14 minutes ago · 10:43 PM PDT

Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 83.0% probability (-488). A Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win stands at 69.0% (-223), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from 4 prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $358.3K, with $27.8K at Kalshi and $330.2K at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

4.01%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez → View arbs

Current Favorite

83.0%

Cory Booker +75.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$358.3K

Momentum Leader

+75.0%

Cory Booker YTD change

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Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Cory Booker

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 83.0%

↑ +75.0%

O 83.0%

OG 83.0%

83¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 69.0%

↑ +61.0%

O 69.0%

OG 69.0%

69¢

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $39.6K Spread 6.5%

Agg 23.5%

↓ -6.7%

O 29.0%

P 23.7%

K 22.5%

G 22.5%

OG 29.0%

29¢

Polymarket 23.7%

Vol $36.1K 23.6–23.7¢

AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Vol $17.5K Spread 10.0%

Agg 12.6%

↑ +5.3%

O 19.0%

P 13.3%

K 9.0%

OG 19.0%

19¢

Polymarket 13.3%

Vol $14.8K 13.2–13.3¢

Kalshi 9.0%

Vol $2.7K 9–9.1¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $151.5K Spread 6.5%

Agg 12.5%

↑ +7.8%

O 18.0%

G 13.5%

P 12.6%

K 11.5%

Vol $141.3K 12.5–12.6¢

Kalshi 11.5%

Vol $10.0K 11–12¢

Gavin Newsom

Vol $31.4K Spread 5.4%

Agg 7.7%

↓ -9.8%

O 13.0%

K 7.8%

P 7.6%

Ted Cruz

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 7.0%

↓ -1.0%

O 7.0%

OG 7.0%

7¢

Kamala Harris

Vol $13.5K Spread 5.3%

Agg 3.8%

↑ +0.7%

O 9.0%

K 4.1%

P 3.8%

Ron DeSantis

Vol $62 Spread 6.2%

Agg 3.0%

↑ +1.5%

O 8.0%

K 3.1%

P 1.8%

Josh Shapiro

Vol $101 Spread 6.3%

Agg 2.8%

↑ +0.2%

O 9.0%

P 3.5%

K 2.8%

Pete Buttigieg

Vol $7.8K Spread 5.4%

Agg 2.7%

↑ +0.2%

O 8.0%

K 3.0%

P 2.7%

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $6.9K Spread 1.6%

Agg 2.0%

↓ -1.2%

G 3.5%

K 2.9%

P 2.0%

DTR

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

Vol $6.1K Spread —

Agg 2.0%

↓ -0.1%

P 2.0%

Polymarket 2.0%

Vol $6.1K 1.9–2¢

Tucker Carlson

Vol $145 Spread —

Agg 1.5%

— +0.0%

P 1.5%

Polymarket 1.5%

Vol $145 1.4–1.5¢

Andy Beshear

Vol $5.0K Spread 7.0%

Agg 1.1%

↓ -0.6%

O 8.0%

K 2.8%

P 1.1%

Greg Abbott

Vol $8.5K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.9%

K 0.3%

Wes Moore

Vol $1.8K Spread 0.3%

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.8%

K 1.0%

P 0.8%

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $540 Spread 0.7%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.8%

K 1.1%

P 0.4%

Ivanka Trump

Vol $4.8K Spread —

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.8%

P 0.4%

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $4.8K 0.4–0.5¢

Jamie Dimon

Vol $995 Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.4%

K 0.4%

Gretchen Whitmer

Vol $8.4K Spread 5.6%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.7%

O 6.0%

K 0.8%

P 0.4%

JBP

J.B. Pritzker

Vol $27.3K Spread 5.6%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -0.7%

O 6.0%

K 0.9%

P 0.4%

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $410 Spread 5.8%

Agg 0.3%

↓ -0.5%

O 6.0%

K 0.4%

P 0.3%

Elon Musk

Vol $11.9K Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.8%

P 0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $11.9K 0.1–0.2¢

Michelle Obama

Vol $359 Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.6%

P 0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $359 0.1–0.2¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $0 Spread 5.9%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.6%

O 6.0%

K 0.3%

P 0.1%

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $8.2K Spread 5.9%

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.6%

O 6.0%

K 0.3%

P 0.2%

Kim Kardashian

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.8%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $0 0.1¢

LeBron James

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.8%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $0 0.1¢

SAS

Stephen A. Smith

Vol $45 Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.8%

K 0.2%

P 0.1%

Tim Walz

Vol $44 Spread 5.9%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.7%

O 6.0%

K 0.1%

P 0.1%

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $5.5K Spread 5.9%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.9%

O 6.0%

K 0.3%

P 0.1%

Zohran Mamdani

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.8%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $0 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	OG
CB Cory Booker	83.0% ↑ +75.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 83.0% 83¢
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	69.0% ↑ +61.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 69.0% 69¢
JDV J.D. Vance	23.5% ↓ -6.7%	6.5%	$39.6K	Kalshi 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $3.5K	Polymarket 23.7% 23.6–23.7¢ Vol $36.1K	Gemini 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $22	OG 29.0% 29¢
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	12.6% ↑ +5.3%	10.0%	$17.5K	Kalshi 9.0% 9–9.1¢ Vol $2.7K	Polymarket 13.3% 13.2–13.3¢ Vol $14.8K	Gemini — —	OG 19.0% 19¢
MR Marco Rubio	12.5% ↑ +7.8%	6.5%	$151.5K	Kalshi 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $10.0K	Polymarket 12.6% 12.5–12.6¢ Vol $141.3K	Gemini 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $230	OG 18.0% 18¢
GN Gavin Newsom	7.7% ↓ -9.8%	5.4%	$31.4K	Kalshi 7.8% 7.6–8¢ Vol $9.3K	Polymarket 7.6% 7.6–7.7¢ Vol $22.1K	Gemini — —	OG 13.0% 13¢
TC Ted Cruz	7.0% ↓ -1.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
KH Kamala Harris	3.8% ↑ +0.7%	5.3%	$13.5K	Kalshi 4.1% 4–4.1¢ Vol $76	Polymarket 3.8% 3.7–3.8¢ Vol $13.5K	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
RD Ron DeSantis	3.0% ↑ +1.5%	6.2%	$62	Kalshi 3.1% 2.9–3.2¢ Vol $57	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $5	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
JS Josh Shapiro	2.8% ↑ +0.2%	6.3%	$101	Kalshi 2.8% 2.7–2.8¢ Vol $101	Polymarket 3.5% 3.4–3.5¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —	OG 9.0% 9¢
PB Pete Buttigieg	2.7% ↑ +0.2%	5.4%	$7.8K	Kalshi 3.0% 2.8–3.2¢ Vol $84	Polymarket 2.7% 2.6–2.7¢ Vol $7.7K	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
DJT Donald J. Trump	2.0% ↓ -1.2%	1.6%	$6.9K	Kalshi 2.9% 2.7–3¢ Vol $128	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2¢ Vol $6.7K	Gemini 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $35	OG — —
DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	2.0% ↓ -0.1%	—	$6.1K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.0% 1.9–2¢ Vol $6.1K	Gemini — —	OG — —
TC Tucker Carlson	1.5% — +0.0%	—	$145	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.5% 1.4–1.5¢ Vol $145	Gemini — —	OG — —
AB Andy Beshear	1.1% ↓ -0.6%	7.0%	$5.0K	Kalshi 2.8% 2.7–2.9¢ Vol $57	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $4.9K	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
GA Greg Abbott	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	0.6%	$8.5K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $8.5K	Gemini — —	OG — —
WM Wes Moore	0.8% ↓ -0.8%	0.3%	$1.8K	Kalshi 1.0% 0.8–1.2¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $1.8K	Gemini — —	OG — —
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	0.4% ↓ -0.8%	0.7%	$540	Kalshi 1.1% 1–1.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $540	Gemini — —	OG — —
IT Ivanka Trump	0.4% ↓ -0.8%	—	$4.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $4.8K	Gemini — —	OG — —
JD Jamie Dimon	0.4% ↓ -0.2%	0.0%	$995	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.5¢ Vol $935	Polymarket 0.4% 0.4–0.5¢ Vol $61	Gemini — —	OG — —
GW Gretchen Whitmer	0.4% ↓ -0.7%	5.6%	$8.4K	Kalshi 0.8% 0.7–0.9¢ Vol $932	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $7.4K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
JBP J.B. Pritzker	0.4% ↓ -0.7%	5.6%	$27.3K	Kalshi 0.9% 0.7–1¢ Vol $11	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $27.3K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
GY Glenn Youngkin	0.3% ↓ -0.5%	5.8%	$410	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $409	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
EM Elon Musk	0.2% ↓ -0.8%	—	$11.9K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $11.9K	Gemini — —	OG — —
MO Michelle Obama	0.2% ↓ -0.6%	—	$359	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $359	Gemini — —	OG — —
NH Nikki Haley	0.2% ↓ -0.6%	5.9%	$0	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.2% ↓ -0.6%	5.9%	$8.2K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $8.2K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
KK Kim Kardashian	0.1% ↓ -0.8%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —	OG — —
LJ LeBron James	0.1% ↓ -0.8%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —	OG — —
SAS Stephen A. Smith	0.1% ↓ -0.8%	0.1%	$45	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $45	Gemini — —	OG — —
TW Tim Walz	0.1% ↓ -0.7%	5.9%	$44	Kalshi 0.1% 0–0.1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $44	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	0.1% ↓ -0.9%	5.9%	$5.5K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $5.5K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
ZM Zohran Mamdani	0.1% ↓ -0.8%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —	OG — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 9.1¢	Sell @ P 13.2¢	+4.10%	+4.01%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.1¢	Sell @ K 2.7¢	+1.60%	+1.53%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Gemini	Buy @ P 2¢	Sell @ G 3¢	+1.00%	+0.99%	No	P ↗︎ G ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.9¢	Sell @ K 2.9¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi → Gemini	Buy @ K 12¢	Sell @ G 13¢	+1.00%	+0.83%	No	K ↗︎ G ↗︎
JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2.8¢	Sell @ P 3.4¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	Gemini → Polymarket	Buy @ G 23¢	Sell @ P 23.6¢	+0.60%	+0.51%	No	G ↗︎ P ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.4¢	Sell @ K 0.7¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.8¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.7¢	Sell @ K 2.8¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0.2¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0.2¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.8¢	Sell @ K 0.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0.3¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0.2¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0.1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
TW Tim Walz	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JD Jamie Dimon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.5¢	Sell @ P 0.4¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 7.7¢	Sell @ K 7.6¢	-0.10%	-0.18%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 23.7%	B 1.8%	+21.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 23.7%	B 2.0%	+21.70%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	Polymarket	A 23.7%	B 2.0%	+21.70%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 23.7%	B 2.7%	+21.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 23.7%	B 3.5%	+20.20%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 23.7%	B 3.8%	+19.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 22.5%	B 2.8%	+19.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 22.5%	B 2.8%	+19.70%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 22.5%	B 2.9%	+19.65%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 22.5%	B 3.0%	+19.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 22.5%	B 3.1%	+19.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini	A 22.5%	B 3.5%	+19.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 22.5%	B 4.1%	+18.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GN Gavin Newsom	Polymarket	A 23.7%	B 7.6%	+16.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	GN Gavin Newsom	Kalshi	A 22.5%	B 7.8%	+14.70%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 22.5%	B 9.0%	+13.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 13.3%	B 1.8%	+11.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 13.3%	B 2.0%	+11.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	Polymarket	A 13.3%	B 2.0%	+11.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket	A 23.7%	B 12.6%	+11.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	MR Marco Rubio	Kalshi	A 22.5%	B 11.5%	+11.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 12.6%	B 1.8%	+10.70%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 13.3%	B 2.7%	+10.60%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 12.6%	B 2.0%	+10.60%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	Polymarket	A 12.6%	B 2.0%	+10.60%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 23.7%	B 13.3%	+10.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Gemini	A 13.5%	B 3.5%	+10.00%	Buy spread	G ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 12.6%	B 2.7%	+9.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 13.3%	B 3.5%	+9.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 13.3%	B 3.8%	+9.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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