Who Will Win 2028 US Presidential Race: Odds & Predictions
Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 20.5% probability (+387). A Marco Rubio win stands at 15.4% (+548), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from 4 prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $713.1K, with $365.7K at Kalshi and $347.4K at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.
Current Favorite
20.5%
J.D. Vance
9.8%
24H Volume (Share)
$713.1K
K: 51.3%
P: 48.7%
G: 0.0%
Momentum Leader
+10.8%
Marco Rubio
YTD change
Probability Over Time
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Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms
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Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
Sort:
JDV
J.D. Vance
Vol $9.4K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
20.5%
↓ -9.8%
O
21.0%
P
20.8%
G
18.0%
K
17.5%
JDV
J.D. Vance
Vol $9.4K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
20.5%
↓ -9.8%
O
21.0%
P
20.8%
G
18.0%
K
17.5%
MR
Marco Rubio
Vol $15.5K
Spread 7.3%
Agg
15.4%
↑ +10.8%
O
20.0%
K
17.5%
G
16.0%
P
12.8%
MR
Marco Rubio
Vol $15.5K
Spread 7.3%
Agg
15.4%
↑ +10.8%
O
20.0%
K
17.5%
G
16.0%
P
12.8%
GN
Gavin Newsom
Vol $10.3K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
11.6%
↓ -5.9%
O
15.0%
P
11.8%
K
11.5%
GN
Gavin Newsom
Vol $10.3K
Spread 3.5%
Agg
11.6%
↓ -5.9%
O
15.0%
P
11.8%
K
11.5%
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Vol $74.8K
Spread 2.4%
Agg
9.0%
↑ +1.7%
O
11.0%
P
9.0%
K
8.6%
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Vol $74.8K
Spread 2.4%
Agg
9.0%
↑ +1.7%
O
11.0%
P
9.0%
K
8.6%
KH
Kamala Harris
Vol $5.0K
Spread 2.3%
Agg
4.8%
↑ +1.7%
O
7.0%
K
4.8%
P
4.8%
KH
Kamala Harris
Vol $5.0K
Spread 2.3%
Agg
4.8%
↑ +1.7%
O
7.0%
K
4.8%
P
4.8%
RD
Ron DeSantis
Vol $8.3K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
3.8%
↑ +2.3%
O
6.0%
K
3.8%
P
1.6%
RD
Ron DeSantis
Vol $8.3K
Spread 4.5%
Agg
3.8%
↑ +2.3%
O
6.0%
K
3.8%
P
1.6%
JS
Josh Shapiro
Vol $3.4K
Spread 2.5%
Agg
2.7%
↑ +0.2%
O
5.0%
K
2.8%
P
2.6%
JS
Josh Shapiro
Vol $3.4K
Spread 2.5%
Agg
2.7%
↑ +0.2%
O
5.0%
K
2.8%
P
2.6%
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Vol $19.2K
Spread 2.6%
Agg
2.7%
↑ +0.3%
O
5.0%
K
2.9%
P
2.5%
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Vol $19.2K
Spread 2.6%
Agg
2.7%
↑ +0.3%
O
5.0%
K
2.9%
P
2.5%
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Vol $4.9K
Spread 0.6%
Agg
2.5%
↓ -0.7%
K
2.9%
G
2.5%
P
2.4%
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Vol $4.9K
Spread 0.6%
Agg
2.5%
↓ -0.7%
K
2.9%
G
2.5%
P
2.4%
TC
Ted Cruz
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%
↓ -6.0%
O
2.0%
TC
Ted Cruz
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
2.0%
↓ -6.0%
O
2.0%
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Vol $13.2K
Spread —
Agg
1.6%
↓ -0.5%
P
1.6%
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Vol $13.2K
Spread —
Agg
1.6%
↓ -0.5%
P
1.6%
TC
Tucker Carlson
Vol $2.9K
Spread —
Agg
1.4%
↓ -0.1%
P
1.4%
TC
Tucker Carlson
Vol $2.9K
Spread —
Agg
1.4%
↓ -0.1%
P
1.4%
AB
Andy Beshear
Vol $1.6K
Spread 3.8%
Agg
1.3%
↓ -0.4%
O
5.0%
K
3.1%
P
1.3%
AB
Andy Beshear
Vol $1.6K
Spread 3.8%
Agg
1.3%
↓ -0.4%
O
5.0%
K
3.1%
P
1.3%
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Vol $947
Spread 0.1%
Agg
1.1%
↓ -0.1%
K
1.2%
P
1.1%
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Vol $947
Spread 0.1%
Agg
1.1%
↓ -0.1%
K
1.2%
P
1.1%
CB
Cory Booker
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%
↓ -7.0%
O
1.0%
CB
Cory Booker
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%
↓ -7.0%
O
1.0%
RFK
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%
↓ -7.0%
O
1.0%
RFK
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Vol $0
Spread —
Agg
1.0%
↓ -7.0%
O
1.0%
GA
Greg Abbott
Vol $4.7K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.9%
↑ +0.1%
P
0.9%
K
0.4%
GA
Greg Abbott
Vol $4.7K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
0.9%
↑ +0.1%
P
0.9%
K
0.4%
WM
Wes Moore
Vol $329
Spread 0.4%
Agg
0.9%
↓ -0.7%
K
1.3%
P
0.9%
WM
Wes Moore
Vol $329
Spread 0.4%
Agg
0.9%
↓ -0.7%
K
1.3%
P
0.9%
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
Vol $1.9K
Spread 2.3%
Agg
0.8%
↓ -0.4%
O
3.0%
K
1.6%
P
0.8%
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
Vol $1.9K
Spread 2.3%
Agg
0.8%
↓ -0.4%
O
3.0%
K
1.6%
P
0.8%
EM
Elon Musk
Vol $648
Spread —
Agg
0.7%
↓ -0.3%
P
0.7%
EM
Elon Musk
Vol $648
Spread —
Agg
0.7%
↓ -0.3%
P
0.7%
GY
Glenn Youngkin
Vol $1.8K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.7%
↓ -0.1%
O
2.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
GY
Glenn Youngkin
Vol $1.8K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
0.7%
↓ -0.1%
O
2.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
JD
Jamie Dimon
Vol $3.0K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
0.7%
↑ +0.1%
P
0.7%
K
0.4%
JD
Jamie Dimon
Vol $3.0K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
0.7%
↑ +0.1%
P
0.7%
K
0.4%
MO
Michelle Obama
Vol $414
Spread —
Agg
0.7%
↓ -0.1%
P
0.7%
MO
Michelle Obama
Vol $414
Spread —
Agg
0.7%
↓ -0.1%
P
0.7%
NH
Nikki Haley
Vol $527
Spread 0.8%
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.2%
O
1.0%
P
0.5%
K
0.3%
NH
Nikki Haley
Vol $527
Spread 0.8%
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.2%
O
1.0%
P
0.5%
K
0.3%
IT
Ivanka Trump
Vol $14.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.8%
P
0.5%
IT
Ivanka Trump
Vol $14.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.8%
P
0.5%
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
Vol $15.7K
Spread 2.6%
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.6%
O
3.0%
K
1.5%
P
0.4%
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
Vol $15.7K
Spread 2.6%
Agg
0.5%
↓ -0.6%
O
3.0%
K
1.5%
P
0.4%
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
Vol $247
Spread —
Agg
0.4%
↓ -0.5%
P
0.4%
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
Vol $247
Spread —
Agg
0.4%
↓ -0.5%
P
0.4%
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
Vol $387
Spread 1.8%
Agg
0.3%
↓ -0.5%
O
2.0%
K
0.7%
P
0.3%
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
Vol $387
Spread 1.8%
Agg
0.3%
↓ -0.5%
O
2.0%
K
0.7%
P
0.3%
KK
Kim Kardashian
Vol $9.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.3%
↓ -0.6%
P
0.3%
KK
Kim Kardashian
Vol $9.1K
Spread —
Agg
0.3%
↓ -0.6%
P
0.3%
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
Vol $3.5K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.3%
↓ -0.6%
K
0.3%
P
0.3%
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
Vol $3.5K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.3%
↓ -0.6%
K
0.3%
P
0.3%
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vol $478.8K
Spread 0.9%
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.8%
O
1.0%
P
0.3%
K
0.2%
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vol $478.8K
Spread 0.9%
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.8%
O
1.0%
P
0.3%
K
0.2%
LJ
LeBron James
Vol $5.3K
Spread —
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.7%
P
0.2%
LJ
LeBron James
Vol $5.3K
Spread —
Agg
0.2%
↓ -0.7%
P
0.2%
TW
Tim Walz
Vol $3.2K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
0.1%
↓ -0.6%
O
1.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
TW
Tim Walz
Vol $3.2K
Spread 1.0%
Agg
0.1%
↓ -0.6%
O
1.0%
P
0.2%
K
0.1%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gemini | OG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
20.5%
↓ -9.8%
|
3.5%
|
$9.4K
|
Kalshi
17.5%
|
Polymarket
20.8%
|
Gemini
18.0%
|
OG
21.0%
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
15.4%
↑ +10.8%
|
7.3%
|
$15.5K
|
Kalshi
17.5%
|
Polymarket
12.8%
|
Gemini
16.0%
|
OG
20.0%
|
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
11.6%
↓ -5.9%
|
3.5%
|
$10.3K
|
Kalshi
11.5%
|
Polymarket
11.8%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
15.0%
|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
9.0%
↑ +1.7%
|
2.4%
|
$74.8K
|
Kalshi
8.6%
|
Polymarket
9.0%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
11.0%
|
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
4.8%
↑ +1.7%
|
2.3%
|
$5.0K
|
Kalshi
4.8%
|
Polymarket
4.8%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
7.0%
|
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
3.8%
↑ +2.3%
|
4.5%
|
$8.3K
|
Kalshi
3.8%
|
Polymarket
1.6%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
6.0%
|
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
2.7%
↑ +0.2%
|
2.5%
|
$3.4K
|
Kalshi
2.8%
|
Polymarket
2.6%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
5.0%
|
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
2.7%
↑ +0.3%
|
2.6%
|
$19.2K
|
Kalshi
2.9%
|
Polymarket
2.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
5.0%
|
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
2.5%
↓ -0.7%
|
0.6%
|
$4.9K
|
Kalshi
2.9%
|
Polymarket
2.4%
|
Gemini
2.5%
|
OG
—
|
|
TC
Ted Cruz
|
2.0%
↓ -6.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
2.0%
|
|
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
|
1.6%
↓ -0.5%
|
—
|
$13.2K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.6%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
TC
Tucker Carlson
|
1.4%
↓ -0.1%
|
—
|
$2.9K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
1.4%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
AB
Andy Beshear
|
1.3%
↓ -0.4%
|
3.8%
|
$1.6K
|
Kalshi
3.1%
|
Polymarket
1.3%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
5.0%
|
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
|
1.1%
↓ -0.1%
|
0.1%
|
$947
|
Kalshi
1.2%
|
Polymarket
1.1%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
CB
Cory Booker
|
1.0%
↓ -7.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
|
RFK
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
|
1.0%
↓ -7.0%
|
—
|
$0
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
—
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
|
GA
Greg Abbott
|
0.9%
↑ +0.1%
|
0.5%
|
$4.7K
|
Kalshi
0.4%
|
Polymarket
0.9%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
WM
Wes Moore
|
0.9%
↓ -0.7%
|
0.4%
|
$329
|
Kalshi
1.3%
|
Polymarket
0.9%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
|
0.8%
↓ -0.4%
|
2.3%
|
$1.9K
|
Kalshi
1.6%
|
Polymarket
0.8%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
3.0%
|
|
EM
Elon Musk
|
0.7%
↓ -0.3%
|
—
|
$648
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.7%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
GY
Glenn Youngkin
|
0.7%
↓ -0.1%
|
1.5%
|
$1.8K
|
Kalshi
0.5%
|
Polymarket
0.7%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
2.0%
|
|
JD
Jamie Dimon
|
0.7%
↑ +0.1%
|
0.3%
|
$3.0K
|
Kalshi
0.4%
|
Polymarket
0.7%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
MO
Michelle Obama
|
0.7%
↓ -0.1%
|
—
|
$414
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.7%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
NH
Nikki Haley
|
0.5%
↓ -0.2%
|
0.8%
|
$527
|
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
|
IT
Ivanka Trump
|
0.5%
↓ -0.8%
|
—
|
$14.1K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.5%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
|
0.5%
↓ -0.6%
|
2.6%
|
$15.7K
|
Kalshi
1.5%
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
3.0%
|
|
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
|
0.4%
↓ -0.5%
|
—
|
$247
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.4%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
|
0.3%
↓ -0.5%
|
1.8%
|
$387
|
Kalshi
0.7%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
2.0%
|
|
KK
Kim Kardashian
|
0.3%
↓ -0.6%
|
—
|
$9.1K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
|
0.3%
↓ -0.6%
|
0.0%
|
$3.5K
|
Kalshi
0.3%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
|
0.2%
↓ -0.8%
|
0.9%
|
$478.8K
|
Kalshi
0.2%
|
Polymarket
0.3%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
|
LJ
LeBron James
|
0.2%
↓ -0.7%
|
—
|
$5.3K
|
Kalshi
—
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
—
|
|
TW
Tim Walz
|
0.1%
↓ -0.6%
|
1.0%
|
$3.2K
|
Kalshi
0.1%
|
Polymarket
0.2%
|
Gemini
—
|
OG
1.0%
|
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
12.8¢
|
Sell @ K
17¢
|
+4.20%
|
+4.03%
|
Yes
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
18¢
|
Sell @ P
20.7¢
|
+2.70%
|
+2.52%
|
Yes
|
|
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
1.6¢
|
Sell @ K
3.7¢
|
+2.10%
|
+2.03%
|
Yes
|
|
|
AB
Andy Beshear
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
1.3¢
|
Sell @ K
3¢
|
+1.70%
|
+1.63%
|
Yes
|
|
|
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.5¢
|
Sell @ K
1.4¢
|
+0.90%
|
+0.83%
|
No
|
|
|
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.8¢
|
Sell @ K
1.5¢
|
+0.70%
|
+0.63%
|
No
|
|
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
2.4¢
|
Sell @ K
2.9¢
|
+0.50%
|
+0.43%
|
No
|
|
|
GA
Greg Abbott
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
0.4¢
|
Sell @ P
0.8¢
|
+0.40%
|
+0.33%
|
No
|
|
|
WM
Wes Moore
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.9¢
|
Sell @ K
1.2¢
|
+0.30%
|
+0.23%
|
No
|
|
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
2.5¢
|
Sell @ K
2.8¢
|
+0.30%
|
+0.23%
|
No
|
|
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
8.7¢
|
Sell @ P
9¢
|
+0.30%
|
+0.21%
|
No
|
|
|
JD
Jamie Dimon
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
0.4¢
|
Sell @ P
0.6¢
|
+0.20%
|
+0.13%
|
No
|
|
|
NH
Nikki Haley
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
0.3¢
|
Sell @ P
0.5¢
|
+0.20%
|
+0.13%
|
No
|
|
|
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
0.3¢
|
Sell @ K
0.5¢
|
+0.20%
|
+0.13%
|
No
|
|
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
2.6¢
|
Sell @ K
2.7¢
|
+0.10%
|
+0.03%
|
No
|
|
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
1.1¢
|
Sell @ K
1.1¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.07%
|
No
|
|
|
GY
Glenn Youngkin
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
0.6¢
|
Sell @ P
0.6¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.07%
|
No
|
|
|
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
0.2¢
|
Sell @ P
0.2¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.07%
|
No
|
|
|
TW
Tim Walz
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
0.1¢
|
Sell @ P
0.1¢
|
+0.00%
|
-0.07%
|
No
|
|
|
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
0.3¢
|
Sell @ P
0.2¢
|
-0.10%
|
-0.17%
|
No
|
|
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Polymarket
→
Kalshi
|
Buy @ P
4.8¢
|
Sell @ K
4.7¢
|
-0.10%
|
-0.17%
|
No
|
|
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
Kalshi
→
Polymarket
|
Buy @ K
12¢
|
Sell @ P
11.7¢
|
-0.30%
|
-0.42%
|
No
|
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Trade Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Polymarket
|
A
20.8%
|
B
1.6%
|
+19.20%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
|
Polymarket
|
A
20.8%
|
B
1.6%
|
+19.20%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Polymarket
|
A
20.8%
|
B
2.4%
|
+18.40%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Polymarket
|
A
20.8%
|
B
2.5%
|
+18.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
Polymarket
|
A
20.8%
|
B
2.6%
|
+18.20%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Polymarket
|
A
20.8%
|
B
4.8%
|
+16.00%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Gemini
|
A
18.0%
|
B
2.5%
|
+15.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
2.8%
|
+14.75%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
2.8%
|
+14.75%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
2.9%
|
+14.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
2.9%
|
+14.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
2.9%
|
+14.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
2.9%
|
+14.55%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
AB
Andy Beshear
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
3.1%
|
+14.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
AB
Andy Beshear
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
3.1%
|
+14.45%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
3.8%
|
+13.70%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
3.8%
|
+13.70%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Gemini
|
A
16.0%
|
B
2.5%
|
+13.50%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
4.8%
|
+12.70%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
KH
Kamala Harris
|
Kalshi
|
A
17.5%
|
B
4.8%
|
+12.70%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
JDV
J.D. Vance
|
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
Polymarket
|
A
20.8%
|
B
9.0%
|
+11.70%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Polymarket
|
A
12.8%
|
B
1.6%
|
+11.20%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
|
Polymarket
|
A
12.8%
|
B
1.6%
|
+11.20%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Polymarket
|
A
12.8%
|
B
2.4%
|
+10.40%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Polymarket
|
A
12.8%
|
B
2.5%
|
+10.30%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
MR
Marco Rubio
|
JS
Josh Shapiro
|
Polymarket
|
A
12.8%
|
B
2.6%
|
+10.20%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
RD
Ron DeSantis
|
Polymarket
|
A
11.8%
|
B
1.6%
|
+10.20%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
|
Polymarket
|
A
11.8%
|
B
1.6%
|
+10.20%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
DJT
Donald J. Trump
|
Polymarket
|
A
11.8%
|
B
2.4%
|
+9.40%
|
Buy spread
|
|
|
GN
Gavin Newsom
|
PB
Pete Buttigieg
|
Polymarket
|
A
11.8%
|
B
2.5%
|
+9.30%
|
Buy spread
|
Kalshi Trading Fee
1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side
Polymarket Trading Fee
0% (gas only)
Gemini Trading Fee
0.40% per side
Polymarket US Trading Fee
0% (gas only)
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Aggregation Method
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Data Sources & Cadence
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).
OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Outcome Mapping
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Spread & Liquidity
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.