Who Will Win 2028 US Presidential Race: Odds & Predictions

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Updated 35 minutes ago · 10:01 AM PDT

Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 18.3% probability (+448). A Marco Rubio win stands at 15.8% (+532), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from 4 prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $830.8K, with $26.8K at Kalshi and $804.0K at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.

Largest Spread

1.86%

Gavin Newsom → View arbs

Current Favorite

18.3%

J.D. Vance 12.1%

24H Volume (Share)

$830.8K

Momentum Leader

+11.4%

Marco Rubio YTD change

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

JDV

J.D. Vance

Vol $98.4K Spread 2.5%

Agg 18.3%

↓ -12.1%

O 20.0%

G 18.5%

P 18.4%

K 17.5%

Vol $87.3K 18.3–18.4¢

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $11.1K 17–18¢

Marco Rubio

Vol $26.3K Spread 1.8%

Agg 15.8%

↑ +11.4%

K 17.5%

O 17.0%

G 16.0%

P 15.7%

Vol $23.8K 15.6–15.7¢

Gavin Newsom

Vol $7.7K Spread 4.5%

Agg 15.7%

↓ -2.9%

O 18.0%

P 16.1%

K 13.5%

Cory Booker

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

— +0.0%

O 8.0%

OG 8.0%

8¢

RFK

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

— +0.0%

O 8.0%

OG 8.0%

8¢

Ted Cruz

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

— +0.0%

O 8.0%

OG 8.0%

8¢

AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Vol $11.3K Spread 1.5%

Agg 5.6%

↓ -1.9%

O 7.0%

K 6.3%

P 5.6%

Kamala Harris

Vol $15.2K Spread 2.3%

Agg 4.9%

↑ +1.9%

O 7.0%

P 5.1%

K 4.7%

Josh Shapiro

Vol $8.4K Spread 5.3%

Agg 2.8%

↑ +0.4%

O 8.0%

P 2.9%

K 2.8%

Ron DeSantis

Vol $6.6K Spread 5.9%

Agg 2.6%

↑ +1.1%

O 8.0%

K 2.8%

P 2.2%

Tucker Carlson

Vol $556 Spread —

Agg 2.6%

↑ +1.0%

P 2.6%

Polymarket 2.6%

Vol $556 2.5–2.6¢

Pete Buttigieg

Vol $3.0K Spread 5.8%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -0.2%

O 8.0%

K 3.1%

P 2.3%

DJT

Donald J. Trump

Vol $66.8K Spread 0.8%

Agg 1.8%

↓ -1.4%

K 2.6%

P 1.8%

DTR

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

Vol $3.7K Spread —

Agg 1.7%

↓ -0.5%

P 1.7%

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $3.7K 1.6–1.7¢

Andy Beshear

Vol $1.9K Spread 1.5%

Agg 1.6%

↓ -0.3%

O 3.0%

K 2.7%

P 1.6%

DJT

Donald J. Trump Jr.

Vol $5.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 1.1%

↓ -0.2%

K 1.2%

P 1.1%

JBP

J.B. Pritzker

Vol $2.0K Spread 6.1%

Agg 1.0%

↓ -0.5%

O 7.0%

K 1.7%

P 1.0%

Jamie Dimon

Vol $4.0K Spread 0.6%

Agg 1.0%

↑ +0.2%

P 1.0%

K 0.4%

Greg Abbott

Vol $7.2K Spread 0.6%

Agg 0.9%

↑ +0.1%

P 0.9%

K 0.3%

Elon Musk

Vol $31.2K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.3%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $31.2K 0.7–0.8¢

Glenn Youngkin

Vol $15.5K Spread 5.5%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

O 6.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Ivanka Trump

Vol $34.2K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.5%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $34.2K 0.7–0.8¢

Michelle Obama

Vol $82.3K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $82.3K 0.7–0.8¢

Tulsi Gabbard

Vol $14.2K Spread 5.3%

Agg 0.8%

— +0.0%

O 6.0%

P 0.8%

K 0.7%

SAS

Stephen A. Smith

Vol $3.0K Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.8%

K 0.5%

Wes Moore

Vol $6.7K Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.9%

K 1.1%

P 0.7%

Gretchen Whitmer

Vol $118.3K Spread 5.5%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -1.7%

O 6.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.5%

Kim Kardashian

Vol $40.5K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $40.5K 0.6–0.7¢

LeBron James

Vol $90.2K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $90.2K 0.6–0.7¢

Nikki Haley

Vol $24.5K Spread 5.6%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.1%

O 6.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.4%

Tim Walz

Vol $16.5K Spread 5.9%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.1%

O 6.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.2%

Zohran Mamdani

Vol $75.4K Spread —

Agg 0.7%

↓ -0.2%

P 0.7%

Polymarket 0.7%

Vol $75.4K 0.6–0.7¢

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vol $9.3K Spread 5.9%

Agg 0.6%

↓ -0.3%

O 6.0%

P 0.7%

K 0.2%

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	OG
JDV J.D. Vance	18.3% ↓ -12.1%	2.5%	$98.4K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $11.1K	Polymarket 18.4% 18.3–18.4¢ Vol $87.3K	Gemini 18.5% 12–25¢ Vol $24	OG 20.0% 20¢
MR Marco Rubio	15.8% ↑ +11.4%	1.8%	$26.3K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $2.5K	Polymarket 15.7% 15.6–15.7¢ Vol $23.8K	Gemini 16.0% 9–23¢ Vol $0	OG 17.0% 17¢
GN Gavin Newsom	15.7% ↓ -2.9%	4.5%	$7.7K	Kalshi 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket 16.1% 16–16.1¢ Vol $6.5K	Gemini — —	OG 18.0% 18¢
CB Cory Booker	8.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
RFK Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	8.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
TC Ted Cruz	8.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	5.6% ↓ -1.9%	1.5%	$11.3K	Kalshi 6.3% 6.2–6.3¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 5.6% 5.5–5.6¢ Vol $9.8K	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
KH Kamala Harris	4.9% ↑ +1.9%	2.3%	$15.2K	Kalshi 4.7% 4.6–4.8¢ Vol $4.7K	Polymarket 5.1% 5–5.1¢ Vol $10.5K	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
JS Josh Shapiro	2.8% ↑ +0.4%	5.3%	$8.4K	Kalshi 2.8% 2.7–2.8¢ Vol $435	Polymarket 2.9% 2.8–2.9¢ Vol $7.9K	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
RD Ron DeSantis	2.6% ↑ +1.1%	5.9%	$6.6K	Kalshi 2.8% 2.7–2.8¢ Vol $4.9K	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.2¢ Vol $1.7K	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
TC Tucker Carlson	2.6% ↑ +1.0%	—	$556	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.6% 2.5–2.6¢ Vol $556	Gemini — —	OG — —
PB Pete Buttigieg	2.3% ↓ -0.2%	5.8%	$3.0K	Kalshi 3.1% 3–3.1¢ Vol $156	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $2.9K	Gemini — —	OG 8.0% 8¢
DJT Donald J. Trump	1.8% ↓ -1.4%	0.8%	$66.8K	Kalshi 2.6% 2.4–2.7¢ Vol $312	Polymarket 1.8% 1.7–1.8¢ Vol $66.5K	Gemini — — Vol $0	OG — —
DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.7% ↓ -0.5%	—	$3.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $3.7K	Gemini — —	OG — —
AB Andy Beshear	1.6% ↓ -0.3%	1.5%	$1.9K	Kalshi 2.7% 2.6–2.7¢ Vol $27	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $1.9K	Gemini — —	OG 3.0% 3¢
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	1.1% ↓ -0.2%	0.1%	$5.8K	Kalshi 1.2% 1.1–1.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $5.8K	Gemini — —	OG — —
JBP J.B. Pritzker	1.0% ↓ -0.5%	6.1%	$2.0K	Kalshi 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $2.0K	Gemini — —	OG 7.0% 7¢
JD Jamie Dimon	1.0% ↑ +0.2%	0.6%	$4.0K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.0% 0.9–1¢ Vol $4.0K	Gemini — —	OG — —
GA Greg Abbott	0.9% ↑ +0.1%	0.6%	$7.2K	Kalshi 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $7.2K	Gemini — —	OG — —
EM Elon Musk	0.8% ↓ -0.3%	—	$31.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $31.2K	Gemini — —	OG — —
GY Glenn Youngkin	0.8% — +0.0%	5.5%	$15.5K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $15.5K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
IT Ivanka Trump	0.8% ↓ -0.5%	—	$34.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $34.2K	Gemini — —	OG — —
MO Michelle Obama	0.8% — +0.0%	—	$82.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $82.3K	Gemini — —	OG — —
TG Tulsi Gabbard	0.8% — +0.0%	5.3%	$14.2K	Kalshi 0.7% 0.6–0.8¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $14.2K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
SAS Stephen A. Smith	0.7% ↓ -0.1%	0.2%	$3.0K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $3.0K	Gemini — —	OG — —
WM Wes Moore	0.7% ↓ -0.9%	0.4%	$6.7K	Kalshi 1.1% 1–1.1¢ Vol $9	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $6.7K	Gemini — —	OG — —
GW Gretchen Whitmer	0.7% ↓ -1.7%	5.5%	$118.3K	Kalshi 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $30	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $118.2K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
KK Kim Kardashian	0.7% ↓ -0.2%	—	$40.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $40.5K	Gemini — —	OG — —
LJ LeBron James	0.7% ↓ -0.2%	—	$90.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $90.2K	Gemini — —	OG — —
NH Nikki Haley	0.7% ↓ -0.1%	5.6%	$24.5K	Kalshi 0.4% 0.3–0.4¢ Vol $3	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $24.5K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
TW Tim Walz	0.7% ↓ -0.1%	5.9%	$16.5K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $16.5K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢
ZM Zohran Mamdani	0.7% ↓ -0.2%	—	$75.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $75.4K	Gemini — —	OG — —
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	0.6% ↓ -0.3%	5.9%	$9.3K	Kalshi 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $45	Polymarket 0.7% 0.6–0.7¢ Vol $9.2K	Gemini — —	OG 6.0% 6¢

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
GN Gavin Newsom	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 14¢	Sell @ P 16¢	+2.00%	+1.86%	Yes	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 15.7¢	Sell @ K 17¢	+1.30%	+1.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AB Andy Beshear	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.6¢	Sell @ K 2.6¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.3¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.8¢	Sell @ K 2.4¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
JBP J.B. Pritzker	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1¢	Sell @ K 1.6¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5.6¢	Sell @ K 6.2¢	+0.60%	+0.53%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.2¢	Sell @ K 2.7¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GA Greg Abbott	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.3¢	Sell @ P 0.8¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JD Jamie Dimon	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.9¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TW Tim Walz	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
VR Vivek Ramaswamy	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.2¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
WM Wes Moore	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.7¢	Sell @ K 1¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 4.8¢	Sell @ P 5¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
NH Nikki Haley	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.4¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 18¢	Sell @ P 18.3¢	+0.30%	+0.12%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
GY Glenn Youngkin	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
SAS Stephen A. Smith	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	+0.10%	+0.03%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 2.8¢	Sell @ P 2.8¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr.	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.1¢	Sell @ K 1.1¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
GW Gretchen Whitmer	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.6¢	Sell @ P 0.6¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
TG Tulsi Gabbard	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 0.8¢	Sell @ P 0.7¢	-0.10%	-0.17%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 18.4%	B 1.8%	+16.60%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 18.4%	B 2.2%	+16.20%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 18.4%	B 2.3%	+16.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 18.4%	B 2.6%	+15.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 18.4%	B 2.9%	+15.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.6%	+14.95%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.6%	+14.95%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.7%	+14.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	AB Andy Beshear	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.7%	+14.85%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.8%	+14.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.8%	+14.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JS Josh Shapiro	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.8%	+14.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 2.8%	+14.75%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 3.1%	+14.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	PB Pete Buttigieg	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 3.1%	+14.45%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 16.1%	B 1.8%	+14.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 16.1%	B 2.2%	+13.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	DJT Donald J. Trump	Polymarket	A 15.7%	B 1.8%	+13.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 16.1%	B 2.3%	+13.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 16.1%	B 2.6%	+13.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	RD Ron DeSantis	Polymarket	A 15.7%	B 2.2%	+13.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	PB Pete Buttigieg	Polymarket	A 15.7%	B 2.3%	+13.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Polymarket	A 18.4%	B 5.1%	+13.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
GN Gavin Newsom	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 16.1%	B 2.9%	+13.20%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	TC Tucker Carlson	Polymarket	A 15.7%	B 2.6%	+13.10%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 4.7%	+12.80%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	KH Kamala Harris	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 4.7%	+12.80%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Polymarket	A 18.4%	B 5.6%	+12.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
MR Marco Rubio	JS Josh Shapiro	Polymarket	A 15.7%	B 2.9%	+12.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
JDV J.D. Vance	AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	Kalshi	A 17.5%	B 6.3%	+11.25%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

OG: Public OG contracts endpoint (Yes/No chance from contract data; no provider 24H volume field in this payload).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.

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