2028 Presidential Election Winner Odds
Prediction markets expect JD Vance to win the 2028 Presidential Election, with his victory sitting at 26.6% probability (+276). A Gavin Newsom win stands at 20.0% (+400), while deeper field candidates remain unlikely at sub-10% probability. Our 2028 US election tracker aggregates live odds from prediction markets. The total volume in the last 24 hours stands at $2.6M, with $8.5K at Kalshi and $2.6M at Polymarket. Aggregated cross-platform odds for US Election updated hourly with current probability synthesis and arbitrage detection.
Largest Spread
1.03%
Wes Moore
Consensus Leader
26.6%
J.D. Vance
24H Volume (Share)
$2.6M
K: 0.3%
P: 99.7%
Momentum Leader
—
24H change
Period:
Platform:
Probability Over Time
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Chart settings
Outcome:
Aggregated (VWAP)
Volume
Kalshi
Polymarket
Cross-Venue Spread
Current Odds Snapshot
Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators
Sort:
JDVJ.D. Vance
Vol $12.2K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
26.6%↑ +0.1%
K
27.0%
P
26.5%
JDV
J.D. Vance
Vol $12.2K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
26.6%
↑ +0.1%
K
27.0%
P
26.5%
GNGavin Newsom
Vol $29.4K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
20.0%↑ +0.5%
P
20.0%
K
19.5%
GN
Gavin Newsom
Vol $29.4K
Spread 0.5%
Agg
20.0%
↑ +0.5%
P
20.0%
K
19.5%
MRMarco Rubio
Vol $34.9K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
9.3%↑ +1.1%
K
9.5%
P
9.3%
MR
Marco Rubio
Vol $34.9K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
9.3%
↑ +1.1%
K
9.5%
P
9.3%
AOCAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Vol $7.8K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
6.5%— +0.0%
K
6.5%
P
6.5%
AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Vol $7.8K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
6.5%
— +0.0%
K
6.5%
P
6.5%
JSJosh Shapiro
Vol $25.7K
Spread 0.8%
Agg
4.3%— +0.0%
P
4.3%
K
3.5%
JS
Josh Shapiro
Vol $25.7K
Spread 0.8%
Agg
4.3%
— +0.0%
P
4.3%
K
3.5%
DJTDonald J. Trump
Vol $18.1K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
3.3%↑ +0.1%
K
3.5%
P
3.3%
DJT
Donald J. Trump
Vol $18.1K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
3.3%
↑ +0.1%
K
3.5%
P
3.3%
KHKamala Harris
Vol $22.8K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
2.7%↑ +0.3%
P
2.8%
K
2.5%
KH
Kamala Harris
Vol $22.8K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
2.7%
↑ +0.3%
P
2.8%
K
2.5%
PBPete Buttigieg
Vol $19.7K
Spread 1.3%
Agg
2.3%↓ -0.1%
K
3.5%
P
2.3%
PB
Pete Buttigieg
Vol $19.7K
Spread 1.3%
Agg
2.3%
↓ -0.1%
K
3.5%
P
2.3%
JBPJ.B. Pritzker
Vol $19.2K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
2.3%— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
2.3%
JBP
J.B. Pritzker
Vol $19.2K
Spread 0.3%
Agg
2.3%
— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
2.3%
ABAndy Beshear
Vol $60.6K
Spread 0.6%
Agg
2.0%— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
2.0%
AB
Andy Beshear
Vol $60.6K
Spread 0.6%
Agg
2.0%
— +0.0%
K
2.5%
P
2.0%
DTRDwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Vol $21.7K
Spread —
Agg
1.8%↑ +0.1%
P
1.8%
DTR
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Vol $21.7K
Spread —
Agg
1.8%
↑ +0.1%
P
1.8%
RDRon DeSantis
Vol $42.1K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
1.4%↓ -0.1%
K
1.5%
P
1.4%
RD
Ron DeSantis
Vol $42.1K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
1.4%
↓ -0.1%
K
1.5%
P
1.4%
ITIvanka Trump
Vol $19.9K
Spread —
Agg
1.3%↓ -0.1%
P
1.3%
IT
Ivanka Trump
Vol $19.9K
Spread —
Agg
1.3%
↓ -0.1%
P
1.3%
DJTDonald J. Trump Jr.
Vol $64.9K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
1.2%— +0.0%
K
1.5%
P
1.2%
DJT
Donald J. Trump Jr.
Vol $64.9K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
1.2%
— +0.0%
K
1.5%
P
1.2%
TCTucker Carlson
Vol $37.0K
Spread —
Agg
1.2%↑ +0.3%
P
1.2%
TC
Tucker Carlson
Vol $37.0K
Spread —
Agg
1.2%
↑ +0.3%
P
1.2%
EMElon Musk
Vol $175.5K
Spread —
Agg
1.1%↑ +0.1%
P
1.1%
EM
Elon Musk
Vol $175.5K
Spread —
Agg
1.1%
↑ +0.1%
P
1.1%
GWGretchen Whitmer
Vol $18.4K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
1.0%↑ +0.1%
K
2.5%
P
1.0%
GW
Gretchen Whitmer
Vol $18.4K
Spread 1.5%
Agg
1.0%
↑ +0.1%
K
2.5%
P
1.0%
VRVivek Ramaswamy
Vol $494.1K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
1.0%— +0.0%
P
1.0%
K
0.5%
VR
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vol $494.1K
Spread 0.4%
Agg
1.0%
— +0.0%
P
1.0%
K
0.5%
WMWes Moore
Vol $75.4K
Spread 1.7%
Agg
0.9%↓ -0.2%
K
2.5%
P
0.9%
WM
Wes Moore
Vol $75.4K
Spread 1.7%
Agg
0.9%
↓ -0.2%
K
2.5%
P
0.9%
GYGlenn Youngkin
Vol $231.6K
Spread 0.6%
Agg
0.9%— +0.0%
K
1.5%
P
0.9%
GY
Glenn Youngkin
Vol $231.6K
Spread 0.6%
Agg
0.9%
— +0.0%
K
1.5%
P
0.9%
LJLeBron James
Vol $143.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.9%— +0.0%
P
0.9%
LJ
LeBron James
Vol $143.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.9%
— +0.0%
P
0.9%
TGTulsi Gabbard
Vol $125.0K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
TG
Tulsi Gabbard
Vol $125.0K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
JDJamie Dimon
Vol $37.4K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
JD
Jamie Dimon
Vol $37.4K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.8%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
KKKim Kardashian
Vol $92.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
KK
Kim Kardashian
Vol $92.6K
Spread —
Agg
0.8%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
MOMichelle Obama
Vol $137.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.8%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
MO
Michelle Obama
Vol $137.0K
Spread —
Agg
0.8%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
SASStephen A. Smith
Vol $117.6K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.7%— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
SAS
Stephen A. Smith
Vol $117.6K
Spread 0.2%
Agg
0.7%
— +0.0%
P
0.8%
K
0.5%
NHNikki Haley
Vol $90.3K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.7%— +0.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
NH
Nikki Haley
Vol $90.3K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.7%
— +0.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
GAGreg Abbott
Vol $141.6K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.7%— +0.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
GA
Greg Abbott
Vol $141.6K
Spread 0.1%
Agg
0.7%
— +0.0%
P
0.7%
K
0.5%
ZMZohran Mamdani
Vol $143.8K
Spread —
Agg
0.7%— +0.0%
P
0.7%
ZM
Zohran Mamdani
Vol $143.8K
Spread —
Agg
0.7%
— +0.0%
P
0.7%
TWTim Walz
Vol $115.6K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.5%— +0.0%
P
0.5%
K
0.5%
TW
Tim Walz
Vol $115.6K
Spread 0.0%
Agg
0.5%
— +0.0%
P
0.5%
K
0.5%
| Outcome | Aggregated | Spread | Volume | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JDV J.D. Vance | 26.6% ↑ +0.1% | 0.5% | $12.2K |
Kalshi
27.0% |
Polymarket
26.5% |
GN Gavin Newsom | 20.0% ↑ +0.5% | 0.5% | $29.4K |
Kalshi
19.5% |
Polymarket
20.0% |
MR Marco Rubio | 9.3% ↑ +1.1% | 0.3% | $34.9K |
Kalshi
9.5% |
Polymarket
9.3% |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 6.5% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $7.8K |
Kalshi
6.5% |
Polymarket
6.5% |
JS Josh Shapiro | 4.3% — +0.0% | 0.8% | $25.7K |
Kalshi
3.5% |
Polymarket
4.3% |
DJT Donald J. Trump | 3.3% ↑ +0.1% | 0.3% | $18.1K |
Kalshi
3.5% |
Polymarket
3.3% |
KH Kamala Harris | 2.7% ↑ +0.3% | 0.2% | $22.8K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
2.8% |
PB Pete Buttigieg | 2.3% ↓ -0.1% | 1.3% | $19.7K |
Kalshi
3.5% |
Polymarket
2.3% |
JBP J.B. Pritzker | 2.3% — +0.0% | 0.3% | $19.2K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
2.3% |
AB Andy Beshear | 2.0% — +0.0% | 0.6% | $60.6K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
2.0% |
DTR Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.8% ↑ +0.1% | — | $21.7K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
1.8% |
RD Ron DeSantis | 1.4% ↓ -0.1% | 0.1% | $42.1K |
Kalshi
1.5% |
Polymarket
1.4% |
IT Ivanka Trump | 1.3% ↓ -0.1% | — | $19.9K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
1.3% |
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr. | 1.2% — +0.0% | 0.4% | $64.9K |
Kalshi
1.5% |
Polymarket
1.2% |
TC Tucker Carlson | 1.2% ↑ +0.3% | — | $37.0K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
1.2% |
EM Elon Musk | 1.1% ↑ +0.1% | — | $175.5K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
1.1% |
GW Gretchen Whitmer | 1.0% ↑ +0.1% | 1.5% | $18.4K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
1.0% |
VR Vivek Ramaswamy | 1.0% — +0.0% | 0.4% | $494.1K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
1.0% |
WM Wes Moore | 0.9% ↓ -0.2% | 1.7% | $75.4K |
Kalshi
2.5% |
Polymarket
0.9% |
GY Glenn Youngkin | 0.9% — +0.0% | 0.6% | $231.6K |
Kalshi
1.5% |
Polymarket
0.9% |
LJ LeBron James | 0.9% — +0.0% | — | $143.6K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.9% |
TG Tulsi Gabbard | 0.8% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $125.0K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.8% |
JD Jamie Dimon | 0.8% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $37.4K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.8% |
KK Kim Kardashian | 0.8% — +0.0% | — | $92.6K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.8% |
MO Michelle Obama | 0.8% — +0.0% | — | $137.0K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.8% |
SAS Stephen A. Smith | 0.7% — +0.0% | 0.2% | $117.6K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.8% |
NH Nikki Haley | 0.7% — +0.0% | 0.1% | $90.3K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.7% |
GA Greg Abbott | 0.7% — +0.0% | 0.1% | $141.6K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.7% |
ZM Zohran Mamdani | 0.7% — +0.0% | — | $143.8K |
Kalshi
— |
Polymarket
0.7% |
TW Tim Walz | 0.5% — +0.0% | 0.0% | $115.6K |
Kalshi
0.5% |
Polymarket
0.5% |
Arbitrage Scanner
Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations
Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)
| Outcome | Venue Pair | Leg A (Buy) | Leg B (Sell) | Gross Spread | After Fees | Actionable | Quick Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WM Wes Moore |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.9¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | +1.10% | +1.03% |
No | |
GW Gretchen Whitmer |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.1¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | +0.90% | +0.83% |
No | |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 2.3¢ | Sell @ K 3¢ | +0.70% | +0.63% |
No | |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 4¢ | Sell @ P 4.2¢ | +0.20% | +0.13% |
No | |
GY Glenn Youngkin |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 0.9¢ | Sell @ K 1¢ | +0.10% | +0.03% |
No | |
AB Andy Beshear |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 2¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | +0.00% | -0.07% |
No | |
VR Vivek Ramaswamy |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.9¢ | -0.10% | -0.17% |
No | |
DJT Donald J. Trump Jr. |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.2¢ | Sell @ K 1¢ | -0.20% | -0.27% |
No | |
KH Kamala Harris |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 3¢ | Sell @ P 2.7¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 2.3¢ | Sell @ K 2¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
TG Tulsi Gabbard |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
JD Jamie Dimon |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
SAS Stephen A. Smith |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.7¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 3.3¢ | Sell @ K 3¢ | -0.30% | -0.37% |
No | |
RD Ron DeSantis |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 1.4¢ | Sell @ K 1¢ | -0.40% | -0.47% |
No | |
NH Nikki Haley |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.6¢ | -0.40% | -0.47% |
No | |
GA Greg Abbott |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.6¢ | -0.40% | -0.47% |
No | |
MR Marco Rubio |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 9.4¢ | Sell @ K 9¢ | -0.40% | -0.49% |
No | |
TW Tim Walz |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 1¢ | Sell @ P 0.5¢ | -0.50% | -0.57% |
No | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
Polymarket
→
Kalshi | Buy @ P 27¢ | Sell @ K 26¢ | -1.00% | -1.26% |
No | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 20¢ | Sell @ P 19¢ | -1.00% | -1.20% |
No | |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Kalshi
→
Polymarket | Buy @ K 7¢ | Sell @ P 6¢ | -1.00% | -1.07% |
No |
Outcome Diff
| Outcome A | Outcome B | Venue | A Odds | B Odds | Diff | Strategy | Quick Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JDV J.D. Vance |
AB Andy Beshear |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 1.95% | +24.55% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
KH Kamala Harris |
Kalshi | A 27.00% | B 2.50% | +24.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Kalshi | A 27.00% | B 2.50% | +24.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
AB Andy Beshear |
Kalshi | A 27.00% | B 2.50% | +24.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 2.25% | +24.25% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 2.25% | +24.25% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
KH Kamala Harris |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 2.75% | +23.75% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Kalshi | A 27.00% | B 3.50% | +23.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Kalshi | A 27.00% | B 3.50% | +23.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Kalshi | A 27.00% | B 3.50% | +23.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 3.25% | +23.25% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 4.30% | +22.20% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Kalshi | A 27.00% | B 6.50% | +20.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 6.50% | +20.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
AB Andy Beshear |
Polymarket | A 20.00% | B 1.95% | +18.05% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Polymarket | A 20.00% | B 2.25% | +17.75% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Polymarket | A 20.00% | B 2.25% | +17.75% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
MR Marco Rubio |
Kalshi | A 27.00% | B 9.50% | +17.50% | Buy spread | |
JDV J.D. Vance |
MR Marco Rubio |
Polymarket | A 26.50% | B 9.25% | +17.25% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
KH Kamala Harris |
Polymarket | A 20.00% | B 2.75% | +17.25% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
KH Kamala Harris |
Kalshi | A 19.50% | B 2.50% | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
JBP J.B. Pritzker |
Kalshi | A 19.50% | B 2.50% | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
AB Andy Beshear |
Kalshi | A 19.50% | B 2.50% | +17.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Polymarket | A 20.00% | B 3.25% | +16.75% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Kalshi | A 19.50% | B 3.50% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
DJT Donald J. Trump |
Kalshi | A 19.50% | B 3.50% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
PB Pete Buttigieg |
Kalshi | A 19.50% | B 3.50% | +16.00% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
JS Josh Shapiro |
Polymarket | A 20.00% | B 4.30% | +15.70% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Polymarket | A 20.00% | B 6.50% | +13.50% | Buy spread | |
GN Gavin Newsom |
AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Kalshi | A 19.50% | B 6.50% | +13.00% | Buy spread |
Kalshi Trading Fee
1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side
Polymarket Trading Fee
0% (gas only)
Gemini Trading Fee
0.40% per side
After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.
Methodology & Data Mapping
How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data
Aggregation Method
Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.
Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.
Data Sources & Cadence
Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).
Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.
Outcome Mapping
Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.
Spread & Liquidity
Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.
Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).
Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.