2028 electionWhere every number comes from

Last tradeStale

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (64.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (44.5%) and Polymarket (50.2%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 47% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Marco Rubio is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (17.5%) and Polymarket (15.3%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Marco Rubio a 16% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Ron DeSantis is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.2%) and Polymarket (2.6%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ron DeSantis a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Tucker Carlson is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (3.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Tucker Carlson a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Ted Cruz is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.1%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ted Cruz a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Donald Trump Jr. is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (1.6%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump Jr. a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Donald Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.3%) and Polymarket (1.9%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Ivanka Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.2%) and Polymarket (0.9%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ivanka Trump a 1% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Jon Ossoff is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (16.5%) and Polymarket (15.4%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Jon Ossoff a 16% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (17.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Gavin Newsom is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (17.0%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Gavin Newsom a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (7.2%) and Polymarket (6.6%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Kamala Harris a 7% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Josh Shapiro is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.7%) and Polymarket (5.8%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Josh Shapiro a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Pete Buttigieg is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.1%) and Polymarket (5.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Pete Buttigieg a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Andy Beshear is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.5%) and Polymarket (3.0%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Andy Beshear a 4% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Mark Kelly is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.2%) and Polymarket (2.6%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Mark Kelly a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance James Talarico is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (3.5%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give James Talarico a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Rahm Emanuel is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.6%) and Polymarket (1.7%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Rahm Emanuel a 2% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance JD Vance wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives JD Vance a 20% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 13% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance Jon Ossoff wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Jon Ossoff a 11% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Marco Rubio wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Marco Rubio a 9% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Gavin Newsom a 7% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Kamala Harris wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 4% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Josh Shapiro a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Pete Buttigieg a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).