2028 electionWhere every number comes from
The contracts, rate or quote types and calculation behind each figure on the 2028 election page. Data observed Oct 9, 1:33 AM ET; this page updates with it. For a frozen copy, use the snapshot.
2028 presidential winner (Polymarket)
Which party wins 2028
Every figure and contract
Democrats win the 2028 presidential election
62%Last trade
The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (64.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESPARTY-2028-D | direct contract | 58.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 1349s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-democrats-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 64.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 73s old | Contract ↗ |
JD Vance wins the Republican nomination
46%Last trade
The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (43.5%) and Polymarket (48.4%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 46% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV | direct contract | 43.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 271s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 48.45¢ | last trade | fresh · 74s old | Contract ↗ |
Marco Rubio wins the Republican nomination
16%Last trade
The chance Marco Rubio is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (16.5%) and Polymarket (15.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Marco Rubio a 16% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-MR | direct contract | 16.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 319s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 15.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
Ron DeSantis wins the Republican nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Ron DeSantis is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (3.9%) and Polymarket (2.8%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ron DeSantis a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS | direct contract | 3.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 1349s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 46s old | Contract ↗ |
Tucker Carlson wins the Republican nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Tucker Carlson is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (3.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Tucker Carlson a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 3043s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-tucker-carlson-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 3.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 1200s old | Contract ↗ |
Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Donald Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.6%) and Polymarket (1.9%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-DJT | direct contract | 2.60¢ | last trade | fresh · 319s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-donald-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Ted Cruz is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.1%) and Polymarket (2.4%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ted Cruz a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-TC | direct contract | 2.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 2517s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ted-cruz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 2.40¢ | last trade | fresh · 46s old | Contract ↗ |
Donald Trump Jr. wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Donald Trump Jr. is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.7%) and Polymarket (1.7%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump Jr. a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR | direct contract | 2.70¢ | last trade | fresh · 107s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 145s old | Contract ↗ |
Ivanka Trump wins the Republican nomination
<1%Last trade
The chance Ivanka Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.1%) and Polymarket (0.9%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ivanka Trump a <1% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-ITRU | direct contract | 1.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 107s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ivanka-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 0.90¢ | last trade | fresh · 101s old | Contract ↗ |
Jon Ossoff wins the Democratic nomination
16%Last trade
The chance Jon Ossoff is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (16.5%) and Polymarket (15.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Jon Ossoff a 16% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JOSS | direct contract | 16.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 107s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-885 | direct contract | 15.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 394s old | Contract ↗ |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the Democratic nomination
16%Last trade
The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (17.9%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 16% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC | direct contract | 13.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 111s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-653 | direct contract | 17.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 73s old | Contract ↗ |
Gavin Newsom wins the Democratic nomination
16%Last trade
The chance Gavin Newsom is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (17.8%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Gavin Newsom a 16% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-GN | direct contract | 13.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 107s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568 | direct contract | 17.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 1212s old | Contract ↗ |
Kamala Harris wins the Democratic nomination
8%Last trade
The chance Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (8.1%) and Polymarket (7.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Kamala Harris a 8% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-KH | direct contract | 8.10¢ | last trade | fresh · 189s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641 | direct contract | 7.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
Josh Shapiro wins the Democratic nomination
5%Last trade
The chance Josh Shapiro is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.7%) and Polymarket (5.9%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Josh Shapiro a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JS | direct contract | 4.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 763s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-977 | direct contract | 5.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 33s old | Contract ↗ |
Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic nomination
5%Last trade
The chance Pete Buttigieg is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.1%) and Polymarket (5.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Pete Buttigieg a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-PB | direct contract | 5.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 497s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-687 | direct contract | 5.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 468s old | Contract ↗ |
Andy Beshear wins the Democratic nomination
4%Last trade
The chance Andy Beshear is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.3%) and Polymarket (2.6%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Andy Beshear a 4% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-AB | direct contract | 5.30¢ | last trade | fresh · 497s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-andy-beshear-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-832 | direct contract | 2.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 1200s old | Contract ↗ |
Mark Kelly wins the Democratic nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Mark Kelly is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.0%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Mark Kelly a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-MK | direct contract | 3.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 497s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-mark-kelly-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-479 | direct contract | 2.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 3078s old | Contract ↗ |
James Talarico wins the Democratic nomination
3%Last trade
The chance James Talarico is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.6%) and Polymarket (3.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give James Talarico a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JTAL | direct contract | 2.60¢ | last trade | fresh · 107s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 3.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
Rahm Emanuel wins the Democratic nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Rahm Emanuel is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (1.8%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Rahm Emanuel a 2% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA | direct contract | 2.80¢ | last trade | fresh · 107s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 | direct contract | 1.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 3078s old | Contract ↗ |
JD Vance wins the presidency
20%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance JD Vance wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives JD Vance a 20% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 19.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 1243s old | Contract ↗ |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the presidency
13%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 13% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 13.15¢ | last trade | stale · 4191s old | Contract ↗ |
Jon Ossoff wins the presidency
10%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Jon Ossoff wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Jon Ossoff a 10% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 10.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 58s old | Contract ↗ |
Gavin Newsom wins the presidency
8%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Gavin Newsom a 8% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 8.05¢ | last trade | stale · 4191s old | Contract ↗ |
Marco Rubio wins the presidency
7%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Marco Rubio wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Marco Rubio a 7% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 7.35¢ | last trade | fresh · 1344s old | Contract ↗ |
Kamala Harris wins the presidency
5%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Kamala Harris wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 5% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 4.60¢ | last trade | fresh · 66s old | Contract ↗ |
Josh Shapiro wins the presidency
3%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Josh Shapiro a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 3.05¢ | last trade | stale · 4191s old | Contract ↗ |
Pete Buttigieg wins the presidency
3%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Pete Buttigieg a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 66s old | Contract ↗ |