2026 MidtermsHouse Control Odds 2026: Kalshi vs Polymarket

Democrats are heavy favorites for the House on Election Day

Polls are open today, and traders give Democrats about a 19-in-20 chance of winning the House. At DeFi Rate’s 7:15 a.m. Eastern check on November 3, Kalshi’s Democratic side was at 94% (93.9¢ bid, 94¢ ask), Polymarket’s midpoint was 94.5% and Polymarket US’s was 94.4% (94.3¢ bid, 94.4¢ ask). That is unchanged from the noon check on November 2; Kalshi was at 91% a week earlier and 90% on October 14. Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a majority.

The final national polls give traders no reason to doubt it. An I&I/TIPP poll released November 2 had Democrats ahead 52% to 42% on the generic ballot among likely voters. The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern, in 11 House districts in Indiana and Kentucky, and the last close at 1 a.m. Eastern in Alaska, according to 270toWin’s closing times. The House markets keep trading live as results come in tonight, and Kalshi’s contract can settle early once the media projections agree.

October background: Cook moves 18 races toward Democrats

On Friday, October 9, the Cook Political Report moved 18 House races toward Democrats, two weeks after shifting 15 the same way. Four Republican-held seats went from Toss Up to Lean Democratic: Iowa's 1st and 3rd districts, held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn, and Pennsylvania's 7th and 10th, held by Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry, the Washington Post reported. Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's Washington seat also moved from Toss Up to Lean Democratic, and four races moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up: Iowa's 2nd, Michigan's 4th, North Carolina's 1st and Virginia's 1st. Cook editor Erin Covey wrote that the most likely outcome is now a Democratic gain of nine to 19 seats, or 224 to 234 seats in the next House, and that Republicans' heavy ad spending in recent weeks "has yet to move the needle," Mediaite reported. Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a majority.

National polling points the same way. A NewsNation/Decision Desk poll released Tuesday, October 13, and taken October 5–9, had Democrats ahead 49% to 42% on the generic congressional ballot among 974 likely voters (margin of error ±3.2 points), with 60% viewing President Trump unfavorably. Inflation was the top issue, named by 28%.

At DeFi Rate’s 5:17 p.m. Eastern check on October 14, the Democratic side of Kalshi's House control market last traded at 90% and the Republican side at 10%. On Polymarket, the Democratic side's midpoint was 90.5% (90¢ bid, 91¢ ask). The cards on this page update through the day.

Latest updates

• November 3, 2026 (checked 7:15 a.m. Eastern): Election Day, with polls open. The Democratic side of Kalshi’s House control market was at 94% (93.9¢ bid, 94¢ ask), unchanged from November 2. Polymarket’s midpoint was 94.5% (94¢ bid, 95¢ ask) and Polymarket US’s was 94.4% (94.3¢ bid, 94.4¢ ask). The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern. These are snapshots; the cards above show the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate from each market’s live data.)
• November 2, 2026 (checked 12:00 p.m. Eastern): the Democratic side of Kalshi’s House control market was at 94% (93.9¢ bid, 94¢ ask), up from 91% a week earlier. Polymarket’s midpoint was 94.5% (94¢ bid, 95¢ ask) and Polymarket US’s was 94.7% (94.6¢ bid, 94.7¢ ask). An I&I/TIPP poll released November 2 had Democrats ahead 52% to 42% on the generic ballot among likely voters. These are snapshots; the cards above show the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate from each market’s live data.)
• October 14, 2026 (checked 5:17 p.m. Eastern): the Democratic side of Kalshi's House control market last traded at 90% and the Republican side at 10%. On Polymarket, the Democratic side's midpoint was 90.5% (90¢ bid, 91¢ ask). These are snapshots; the cards above show the current prices. (Prices checked by DeFi Rate from each market's live data.)
• October 13, 2026: a NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll, taken October 5–9, put Democrats ahead 49% to 42% on the generic ballot among likely voters. (Source: The Hill)
• October 9, 2026: Cook moved 18 House races toward Democrats, including IA-01, IA-03, PA-07, PA-10 and WA-03 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic, and IA-02, MI-04, NC-01 and VA-01 from Lean Republican to Toss Up. It now projects a Democratic gain of nine to 19 seats. (Source: Cook Political Report)
• October 7, 2026: Republican strategists who had expected 13–14 seats from redistricting now see fewer than five as likely pickups. (Source: New York Post)
• September 25, 2026: Cook moved 15 House ratings toward Democrats, leaving 208 seats in Democratic-favored categories, 205 in Republican-favored ones and 22 Toss Ups. (Source: Cook Political Report)

The House Toss Ups that could determine the majority

After its October 9 changes, Cook rated 21 House races as Toss Ups, listed in the table below. Cook has published more rating changes since, so check its current ratings before relying on this list.

Cook's projected range, a Democratic House of 224 to 234 seats, is not a guarantee. A Lean Democratic seat can still elect a Republican, and a Lean Republican seat can still elect a Democrat.

2026 House Toss Up tracker

Source: Cook's House ratings, as of October 9. Party identifies the seat’s current or previous holder, not the projected winner. Open seats have no incumbent seeking reelection.

Republicans are defending most of the Toss Ups. Pennsylvania shows how fast the map is moving: three of its districts were Toss Ups before October 9, and after that day's changes only Rob Bresnahan's PA-08 is still rated Toss Up, with Ryan Mackenzie's PA-07 and Scott Perry's PA-10 now Lean Democratic.

South Texas provides another example. Republican Monica De La Cruz is defending TX-15, while Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is defending neighboring TX-34. New polling showing reduced Republican support among Latino voters has brought renewed attention to both districts.

The Toss Up list does not capture every district Republicans or Democrats are contesting. Republican targets such as NY-04 and NV-03 are currently rated Lean Democratic, meaning they sit outside this table despite receiving significant campaign attention.

House election prices don’t tell you how many seats each party will win

A Democratic House control contract pays on the party taking control, whether the eventual majority is 218 seats or 230. Seat-count markets cover a different question.

For a combined seat-count question rather than House control alone, compare the Blue Wave seat thresholds.

Kalshi offers House seat-count and margin-of-victory markets in addition to the national control contract. PredictIt also lists contracts covering ranges of Republican House seats.

Consider two possible results: Republicans finish with 217 seats, or they finish with 190. Both would ordinarily leave Democrats controlling the House, but the outcomes would settle different seat-range contracts.

Popular vote markets are different again. Democrats could win more votes nationally without winning a majority of congressional districts, because House seats are decided in 435 separate elections.

Readers following the size of a potential Democratic gain should distinguish House control from seat totals, district-level results and the nationwide popular vote.

For the bigger picture, see our 2026 midterm odds hub and Senate race odds.

Where to trade the 2026 House elections

House election contracts are available through several prediction markets and apps, although the available outcomes and settlement rules vary.

Compare election trading apps to choose a venue for congressional markets based on coverage, fees and access.

Robinhood’s congressional balance-of-power market, for example, separates a Democratic House and Democratic Senate from a Democratic House and Republican Senate. A trader taking a position on either outcome needs to consider results in both chambers, rather than the House alone.

Prediction apps may also offer different contracts through different underlying exchanges. Availability depends on your location, eligibility and the particular market.

For direct House control comparisons, DeFi Rate tracks Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US live; Polymarket US is shown on the board but not included in the average. Its data does not imply that those are the only prediction markets offering election contracts.