2026 Masters Winner Prediction MarketsKalshi settled on Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy was the winner of the 2026 Masters. He finished at -12, one stroke ahead of second-place finisher Scottie Scheffler, to claim the $4.5 million first-place prize and his second consecutive green jacket. The 91st Masters Tournament is scheduled for April 8-11, 2027, at Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. Trading on the tournament will be available at leading prediction market platforms. Golf has become a massive attraction for traders, with Kalshi volume for the 2026 Masters checking in at over $545 million.

Masters prediction markets

Prediction market platforms offer a wide range of options for trading on the Masters, including the outright winner of the event. Here’s a full breakdown of what’s available.

Tournament winner

The flagship Masters contract at both platforms. Kalshi lists it as “The Masters – Winner,” and Polymarket calls it “The Masters Tournament Champion.” You buy yes or no contracts on any player in the field, priced between $0.01 and $0.99. 

If your player wins, the contract settles at $1. You can also sell your position at any point during the tournament. For example, if your selection surges on Saturday, you can lock in a profit before Sunday’s final round.

Top 5, top 10, and top 20 finishers

You can trade on finishing position markets for the top 5, top 10, and top 20 finishers. It’s a lower-variance alternative to picking the outright winner among the favorites, but the potential return is also lower due to the higher probability. Each contract follows the same yes/no structure and settles on official tournament results.

Make the Cut

A yes/no contract on whether a player survives the 36-hole cut. The 2026 Masters cut includes the top 50 players and ties. Straightforward and useful if you have a strong view on a player’s form without needing to predict their finishing position.

Round leaders

Kalshi offers Round 1 Leader and End of Round Leader markets, allowing traders to position on who will lead the tournament at specific points rather than waiting for the full event to conclude. Prices shift in real time as scores come in, creating opportunities to trade tournament momentum round by round.

Tournament matchups

These are head-to-head contests between two players, with the lower total score winning regardless of overall leaderboard position. These markets reduce a 90-plus player field to a straight two-player contest, making it easier to analyze as you solely focus on the matchup.

Golfer groups

Contracts covering performance within specific subsets of the field. Examples include Top Amateur Golfer, Top Asian/Oceanic Golfer, and Top LIV Golfer. Each settles based on which player in that group finishes highest in the official results, letting traders focus on a smaller competitive pool.

Golf specials

Kalshi is offering several categories covering tournament-level outcomes beyond the leaderboard. The featured options are Hole-in-One, Lowest Round Score, Playoff, Stroke Margin, Winner Region, and Winning Score. It’s another great way to engage with the signature event beyond trying to solely land on the winner. 

Masters mention markets

Mention markets track how often specific players or topics are referenced by announcers during the tournament. Masters-specific mention contracts are expected to be available for each of the four days. Check out our complete guide to mention markets to learn more. 

The Masters key information

The 2027 Masters Tournament is the 91st edition of the iconic tournament. Here are the key details you need to know. 

• Venue: Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia
• Course: Par 72, 7,555 yards
• Dates: Thursday, April 8 – Sunday, April 11, 2027
• Field size: 91 players
• Broadcast: CBS, ESPN, Paramount+, Prime Video 
• Purse: $22.5 million, with $4.5 million to first place.

Recent Masters winners and trends

Here’s the past decade of winners at The Masters, along with final scores. 

• 2026: Rory McIlroy, -12 (276)
• 2025: Rory McIlroy, -11 (277) – won in a playoff over Justin Rose
• 2024: Scottie Scheffler, -11 (277)
• 2023: Jon Rahm, -12 (276)
• 2022: Scottie Scheffler, -10 (278)
• 2021: Hideki Matsuyama, -10 (278)
• 2020: Dustin Johnson, -20 (268) 
• 2019: Tiger Woods, -13 (275)
• 2018: Patrick Reed, -15 (273)
• 2017: Sergio Garcia, -9 (279) — won in a playoff over Justin Rose

The Masters Tournament was first played in 1934, making the 2026 edition the 90th playing of the event. Unlike the other three majors, the Masters is the only one played at the same venue every year. Augusta National is a private club open to the public during the Masters week.

The green jacket, awarded to the champion since 1949, is one of the most recognizable symbols in sports. As the first major of the year, the Masters sets the tone for the entire golf calendar and remains firmly planted as one of the signature sporting events of the year. 

How to trade Masters contracts at prediction markets

Prediction markets offer a fundamentally different way to engage with the Masters than traditional sportsbooks. Rather than locking in a fixed bet, you are trading live contracts whose prices shift in real time. This gives you the flexibility to buy, sell, and hedge your positions round by round. Here are the top platforms for Masters trading.

• Kalshi: The most complete prediction market for Masters trading, with deeper liquidity and the widest market selection. Fees are variable based on contract price. New users can claim a $25 Bonus with their first $10 in trades using promo code RATE .
• Polymarket: The world’s largest prediction market by overall volume, with a highly liquid Masters winner market. Polymarket often has a lower effective fee on certain markets, making it a strong complement rather than a straight alternative.
• DraftKings Predictions: Available in 38 states. Golf market selection is more limited than Kalshi or Polymarket, but a familiar brand for sports bettors making their first move into prediction markets.

New to prediction markets? Our introduction to prediction markets, fees guide, and how contracts settle pages cover everything you need to get started. Trading from a specific state? See our guides for California, Florida, and Texas for a full breakdown of what is available where you are.

How resolution criteria work

Understanding how contracts settle is the most important part of trading on prediction markets. Here’s how the Masters contracts will settle at each platform. Learn more about how Kalshi and Polymarket settle contracts.

• Winner contracts: If a player wins the Masters Tournament, the market resolves to “Yes” and settles at $1. 
• Criteria: Kalshi uses Fox Sports, ESPN, and The Wall Street Journal as resolution sources. Polymarket uses the official PGA Tour website and The Masters website, with a consensus of credible reporting as backup.
• Withdrawals: If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate before teeing off, Tournament Winner and End of Round Leader markets resolve to No on Kalshi. Finishing Position, Make the Cut, Head-to-Head, and 3-Ball markets resolve to Fair Market Value.
• Playoffs: The winner is determined by the official Masters champion, regardless of whether a playoff is required. If your player wins in sudden death, the contract pays out in full.
• Cancellation clause: If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to “Other” at Polymarket. Kalshi follows a similar framework for incomplete events.