Dolphins vs. ColtsWeek 10 Predictions, Picks and Odds

Dolphins vs. Colts odds and spread

Indianapolis is favored even though it has lost five consecutive games. Miami has just one win in eight games, and its quarterback situation changed this week when Malik Willis went on injured reserve. The Colts are priced at approximately 65 cents to win, while Miami trades around 35 cents, according to the November 11 market snapshot.

• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026.
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET.
• Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana.
• TV: CBS.
• Moneyline: Indianapolis 65% implied win probability; Miami 35% (Kalshi snapshot).
• Spread: Colts −3.5; Dolphins +3.5.
• Total: 39.5 points on Kalshi's featured market.
• Records: Indianapolis 2–7; Miami 1–7.

The 3.5-point spread asks a different question from the moneyline. The Colts could win by a field goal and still leave traders holding an unsuccessful Indianapolis −3.5 contract. Kalshi's market on a Colts victory by more than 3.5 points was close to evenly priced, despite the more decisive moneyline advantage.

Dolphins vs. Colts stats

Neither offense has consistently moved the ball this season. Indianapolis has a modest advantage in both scoring and total yardage, while Miami has generated more interceptions and a better turnover differential.

Source: NFL game-center season statistics available November 11, 2026. Totals and averages reflect games played through Week 9.

Dolphins vs. Colts team outlooks

• Miami Dolphins (1–7): Kyle McCord will make his first NFL regular-season start in place of Malik Willis, who was placed on injured reserve with a core muscle injury. Miami also lost defensive lineman Zach Sieler to a season-ending biceps injury. The Dolphins scored nine points against Detroit last Sunday and average only 15.8 per game, leaving McCord with a difficult assignment despite facing a Colts team that has also struggled. Running back Ollie Gordon II has 463 rushing yards and four touchdowns this season, making the ground game an important source of support for the new starter.
• Indianapolis Colts (2–7): Five consecutive defeats have put Indianapolis under pressure, but Daniel Jones remains the starting quarterback. The Colts lost 27–23 to Dallas in Week 9, a closer result after their 42–7 defeat to Jacksonville the previous week. Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 656 yards and eight touchdowns this season. Indianapolis averages 20.4 points, and its −11 turnover differential remains a concern. A home matchup against a first-time starting quarterback offers the Colts an opportunity to stop their losing streak, provided they avoid giving Miami short fields.

Dolphins vs. Colts picks and predictions

• Moneyline / Winner: Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have not played like a strong favorite recently, but the quarterback change gives them the edge in this matchup. McCord has yet to take a regular-season NFL snap, and Miami's offense was already averaging fewer than 16 points with Willis. Indianapolis can lean on Taylor to reduce the burden on Jones and limit possessions for Miami. The market's roughly 65% Colts probability looks more persuasive than their 2–7 record alone.
• Against the spread: Miami Dolphins +3.5. A Colts victory does not automatically justify laying more than a field goal. Indianapolis has lost five straight and has the league's second-worst turnover differential among the two teams' listed NFL rankings. Miami does not need McCord to lead a high-scoring offense to stay within this number. A 20–17 Indianapolis victory, for example, would pay Colts moneyline contracts but leave Miami +3.5 as the successful spread side. The pick carries significant uncertainty because McCord is making his first start.
• Over/Under: Under 39.5 points. Miami's scoring average of 15.8 and the switch to an inexperienced quarterback make a high-scoring game difficult to project. Indianapolis has reached 23 points or fewer in each of its last five games. Taylor's rushing workload could also keep the clock moving. A 20–17 finish would produce 37 points, below the current 39.5-point line. An early defensive touchdown or a short field created by turnovers could undermine the under selection.

Predictions and market figures reflect information available November 11, 2026. Live prices, spreads, totals and injury statuses may change before kickoff.

How to trade Dolphins vs. Colts odds

Indianapolis is the favorite, but a higher probability also means a higher entry price. At a hypothetical 65-cent purchase price, 80 Colts Yes contracts cost $52 before fees. An Indianapolis victory pays $80, a $28 profit. If Miami wins, those contracts expire worthless. Under the applicable Kalshi NFL winner rules, a game ending in an official tie settles each team's winner contracts at 50 cents.

The Dolphins offer a different risk-and-return profile. Buying 80 Miami Yes contracts at 35 cents costs $28. If McCord delivers an upset, the contracts return $80, giving the position a $52 profit before fees. The lower cost reflects the market's view that Miami is less likely to win, not a guarantee that the contract is better value.

You can also trade the margin rather than the winner. For an Indianapolis −3.5 contract to succeed, the Colts must finish at least four points ahead. A 24–20 Colts victory clears that threshold, while a 21–18 win does not. In both cases, Indianapolis still wins the moneyline. Spread contracts settle under their specific listed rules, including how overtime affects the final score.

Totals contracts depend only on the combined points. Over 39.5 would pay $1 per winning Yes contract if the teams combine for at least 40 points; under 39.5 wins at 39 or fewer. For example, a 23–17 Colts victory would settle the over successfully even if Miami covered the +3.5 spread. These are independent positions with different outcomes.

Prediction markets also allow you to sell a position before the final whistle rather than hold until settlement. Suppose Miami's Yes contracts begin at 35 cents and McCord engineers an early touchdown drive. If the market rises to 48 cents, selling 80 contracts at that price would return $38.40 against the original $28 cost, a $10.40 profit before fees. Conversely, if Miami's price drops to 20 cents, selling the same position would return $16 and realize a $12 loss before fees. Neither move is guaranteed, and an order only executes when someone takes the other side at the available price.

Unlike the typical sportsbook model, prediction markets support contract trading against other participants while the game remains unresolved. Some sportsbooks also offer cash-out features, but those do not operate as an exchange order book. Check fees and liquidity alongside the displayed contract price, particularly when comparing the Best Price offers across operators.

Find more matchups on the NFL odds page, where you can compare game markets and follow the rest of the Week 10 schedule.