NFL DPOY Prediction MarketsNFL DPOY prediction markets: 2026–27 odds and picks

Will Anderson Jr. leads the NFL Defensive Player of the Year prediction market for the 2026–27 season. Dallas Turner and Fred Warner are among his closest challengers on Kalshi, but their cases are different: Turner is building a pass-rush résumé, while Warner's turnover production gives him another route to the award.

The Kalshi DPOY market, Polymarket US market and Polymarket Global market all track the AP award. Their co-winner rules differ, so buying the same player's name does not give you identical exposure across venues.

The live board's Polymarket column refers to Polymarket Global, not Polymarket US.

Analysis checked Nov. 15, 2026, at 3:26 p.m. ET. Player statistics below cover completed games through Week 9; they do not include Week 10 games.

Who are the favourites to win DPOY this year?

Anderson has the strongest sack total of the three contenders below. Turner offers a competing edge-rusher case, while Warner's forced fumbles make him a different kind of challenger. These are our interpretations of their production, not explanations supplied by the exchanges.

Will Anderson Jr.: the pass-rush benchmark

Anderson's Texans season stats show 9.5 sacks and one forced fumble through Week 9. He had two sacks against the Chargers on Nov. 8, following consecutive appearances without a sack against Jacksonville and the Giants.

That gives you both sides of his case. He can produce a multi-sack game, but his weekly output has not been uniform. Our view: his lead is supported by production, while a buyer still needs to decide how much further improvement the price already assumes. A strong favorite is not automatically a cheap contract.

Houston's Week 10 inactives include fellow defensive end Danielle Hunter. That is relevant personnel context, not evidence that Anderson will face a particular blocking scheme or receive a production boost.

Live DPOY odds give Anderson a 36% implied probability of winning.

Dallas Turner: a challenger who needs to close the production gap

The Vikings player statistics credit Turner with seven sacks and two forced fumbles through Week 9. He recorded a sack against Buffalo on Nov. 9 after going without one against Detroit the previous week.

Turner's route is straightforward: add enough pass-rush production to challenge Anderson's season total. His extra forced fumble adds to the case, but he trails Anderson in sacks at this checkpoint. Our view: buy the argument for a stronger finish, not simply the fact that he sits below the favorite.

Turner's current implied probability of winning DPOY is 15%.

Fred Warner: a turnover-based alternative

Warner has five forced fumbles and half a sack in the 49ers season breakdown through Week 9. He forced a fumble against the Raiders on Nov. 8 and also recorded one in his previous appearance against Atlanta.

His case should not be judged solely against edge rushers' sack totals. Our view: Warner offers a different route to the award through disruptive plays, but that route needs sustained evidence. A forced fumble is not the same as a recovered turnover, and another productive linebacker performance does not automatically close the award race.

Warner's live DPOY price represents a 14% implied probability of winning.

Who are the underdogs and why?

For a lower-priced contender, the useful question is what would make the award case stronger before the market fully reflects it. These views use the same through-Week-9 checkpoint as the favorite analysis.

Greg Rousseau is our underdog: Buffalo's Rousseau season numbers show eight sacks and three forced fumbles, including a sack in each of his last two appearances. That puts him closer to Anderson in sacks than his outsider status alone might suggest. Another multi-sack performance would strengthen the case; the weakness is that he still trails Anderson, and a statistical comparison alone does not establish that his contract is underpriced.

Rousseau's live DPOY odds represent a 3.5% implied probability of winning.

T.J. Watt stays on the watchlist: The Steelers record lists 7.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one interception. A run of disruptive games would give you a reason to revisit his position in the field. The obstacle: he is behind Anderson and Rousseau in sacks at this checkpoint, so his case needs more than name recognition.

Watt has a 7% implied probability of winning the award.

Anderson remains the production-based favorite, not an automatic purchase. His sack total supports the lead. Our preference is to compare the cost of that lead with a challenger whose recent production supports a plausible path to catching him, rather than buy Anderson at any price.

Rousseau is the underdog we’d research first, with Watt on the watchlist. For either player, weigh the price against how strongly you rate his case to win DPOY.

How to compare NFL DPOY contract prices

Before buying Anderson or backing Rousseau as an underdog, check what your planned DPOY position would actually cost. Compare the same player's available Yes purchase price across venues. If there aren't enough contracts at the lowest ask to fill your order, the rest may cost more. If you plan to sell before the award is announced, check the bid too: that's the price available to exit, not the headline odds above.

DPOY implied probability and a worked trade

Consider a hypothetical Yes price of 30¢, representing a 30% implied probability. Buy 100 contracts at that price and the position costs $30 before fees. If Yes settles at $1 per contract, the position is worth $100, a $70 profit before fees. If No settles, it is worth zero and you lose the $30 purchase cost plus fees. This is an illustration, not a current quote for a player.

That separates the two decisions: which player has the best award case, and whether you want that exposure at the offered price. The favorite can be the most likely winner without being your preferred purchase.

DPOY trading costs and venue access

Kalshi's fees can vary by market and order type. Polymarket Global also charges taker fees on certain markets, so do not assume its DPOY contracts are fee-free. Compare the order's fee-inclusive cost rather than a headline quote.

Polymarket Global's geographic restrictions exclude the United States. Its market is a comparison reference for U.S. readers, separate from the Polymarket US DPOY listing. Our prediction market apps comparison covers all options available to US traders. New traders can claim sign up promos at both. Full details and current offers are available on our Kalshi and Polymarket promo code pages.

How NFL DPOY prediction markets settle

All three markets ask who wins the AP Defensive Player of the Year award for the 2026–27 season. These contracts do not settle on who leads the NFL in sacks. The AP's published voting framework uses a nationwide panel of sports journalists and ranked selections for the award.

The important difference between the prediction markets is a shared award. Kalshi lists a separate Tie/Co-Winners outcome, while Polymarket Global applies an alphabetical last-name rule if multiple winners are announced. Polymarket US divides the $1 Yes settlement by the number of tied players, rounded down to the nearest cent. You should review the terms of the contract before trading as wording may differ from one venue to the next.

If no DPOY award is given, Kalshi's player contracts settle to No; a No Award Given contract settles to Yes only if that outcome is listed. Polymarket Global instead resolves to Other if the season is cancelled, postponed beyond Feb. 28, 2027, at 11:59 p.m. ET, or no winner is declared by that deadline.

Trading close and payment are separate steps. Kalshi's award terms set settlement no later than the day after expiration unless the outcome is under review, and allow expiration to move earlier once the result is confirmed. The market's maximum closing date is not the date the AP announces DPOY.