Fed decisionWhere every number comes from
The contracts, rate or quote types and calculation behind each figure on the Fed decision page. Data observed Oct 9, 3:37 AM ET; this page updates with it. For a frozen copy, use the snapshot.
The Fed holds on Oct. 28: daily history
The Fed hikes on Dec. 9: daily history
Fed meeting odds (Kalshi)
Every figure and contract
The Fed hikes on Oct. 28
16%Last trade
The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (17.0%) and Polymarket (15.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 16%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25 | direct contract | 17.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 401s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032 | direct contract | 15.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 183s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-09 (136 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 3:37 AM observation. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 17.0% |
| 2026-10-08 | 15.5% |
| 2026-10-07 | 15.5% |
| 2026-10-06 | 16.5% |
| 2026-10-05 | 20.5% |
| 2026-10-04 | 17.5% |
The Fed holds on Oct. 28
84%Last trade
The chance the Fed leaves its target range unchanged on Oct. 28, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (83.5%) and Polymarket (84.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance the Fed holds on Oct. 28 at 84%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0 | direct contract | 83.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 257s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031 | direct contract | 84.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 236s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-09 (136 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 83.5% |
| 2026-10-08 | 83.0% |
| 2026-10-07 | 83.5% |
| 2026-10-06 | 83.5% |
| 2026-10-05 | 79.5% |
| 2026-10-04 | 82.5% |
The Fed hikes on Dec. 9
75%Last trade
The chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Each meeting is its own market, so this isn’t conditional on October.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (74.0%) and Polymarket (75.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance of a December Fed hike at 75%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25 | direct contract | 74.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 595s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636 | direct contract | 75.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 257s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-09 (131 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 74.0% |
| 2026-10-08 | 73.5% |
| 2026-10-07 | 71.0% |
| 2026-10-06 | 71.5% |
| 2026-10-05 | 74.5% |
| 2026-10-04 | 70.5% |
At least one more hike in 2026
79%Last trade
The chance the Fed raises rates at least once more before the end of 2026.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (80.0%) and Polymarket (78.0%). The two contracts are worded differently but settle on the same outcome.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets give about a 79% chance of at least one more Fed hike in 2026” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDHIKE-2-26DEC31 | direct contract | 80.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 2135s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026 | direct contract | 78.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 313s old | Contract ↗ |
October hike, per Kalshi’s rate-level market
18%Last tradeSingle venue
The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.
Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFED-26OCT-T4.00 | direct contract | 17.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 2059s old | Contract ↗ |