How Long Will the Government Shutdown Last?

Prediction markets forecasting shutdown length

Two shutdowns have hit the federal government in 2026, both rooted in the same dispute over ICE and CBP reforms. The second is still ongoing — and as of today, it has become the longest in US history at 60+ days. Prediction markets have tracked every failed vote: Polymarket’s current aggregate duration forecast sits at 74 days, with 95% odds the shutdown clears 60 days and 61% odds it surpasses 70. Kalshi puts the chance of DHS being funded before June 1 at 78%, with only 28% of traders pricing in a House vote on a full DHS bill by April 22.

The markets read the first shutdown correctly. Kalshi’s duration forecast on the eve of the January 31 deadline was just 3.2 days. The traders expected a quick resolution once the House returned from recess, and the shutdown ended after four days.

The second was a different story. When the DHS-only shutdown began February 14, Kalshi’s median forecast opened at 27 days, up from 18 days just two days earlier, with 81% odds of lasting at least 15 days and only an 18% chance of matching the then-record 43-day 2025 shutdown. After a Senate vote failed 51–46 in mid-March, both Kalshi and Polymarket had pushed their aggregate forecasts to 57–59 days, with nearly half of traders pricing in 60 or more days. The market has repriced upward at every failed vote since.

Trading options within prediction markets

Both Kalshi and Polymarket have built out significant coverage around the shutdown, however, the two platforms approach it from slightly different angles.

Kalshi’s shutdown markets include: whether a shutdown would occur on January 31; how long the current shutdown will last, structured as duration thresholds traders can buy against; when DHS will be funded again, broken into date-range buckets; whether there will be any government shutdown in 2026 at all; and who will vote for the next government funding bill in the House. The duration market is the most significant. Instead of a single binary, it runs as a series of escalating thresholds, so traders can take a position on any number of specific day counts. This is also the contract with the most volume, breaking $16M+.

Polymarket’s coverage is broader in market count but similar in theme. Active markets as of right now include: when the DHS shutdown ends, with 13 date-range outcomes; how long the DHS shutdown will last; whether the government funding lapsed on January 31; and fringe markets that emerged from the shutdown’s political fallout, including whether Elon Musk will pay TSA salaries and various binary questions tied to specific congressional votes and procedural milestones.

What needs to happen next

Resolution depends on reconciliation. If Republicans advance the broader spending package — which funds ICE and CBP outside the appropriations process. House leadership gains the cover to accept a DHS funding bill without needing Democratic support. That timeline runs to Trump’s June 1 deadline, meaning the shutdown could plausibly extend into late spring before a durable deal clears both chambers.