Data

Kalshi and Polymarket trends and diverging paths

Data

Kalshi Posts $13B Record Volume in March, Extends Lead Over Polymarket to $1B

Both platforms hit March records, then diverged: Kalshi rose 6.4% in the week of March 30 while Polymarket fell 12%, widening Kalshi's notional volume lead to...

Valerie Cross

April 6, 2026

Prediction market odds compared march madness

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The Hidden Tax Inside Your Prediction Market App: March Madness Odds Compared

We compared pricing across six prediction market apps and two sportsbooks for five NCAA tournament games. House take ranged from a staggering 1.3% to 8.2%, a meaningful impact on any...

Valerie Cross

March 24, 2026

Kalshi and Polymarket surge on march madness

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Kalshi Hits Record $3.4B Week with March Madness as Polymarket Tallies $2.5B

Kalshi posted a new record $3.40 billion notional volume week as Polymarket's sports volume surged 32% week over week with NCAA basketball tournaments in full...

Valerie Cross

March 23, 2026

Prediction markets tied to the 2026 Oscars generated more than $200 million in trading across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi and Polymarket Generate Over $200M on Oscars, Calling 19 of 24 Winners

Prediction markets correctly call 19 of 24 Oscar category winners as the role of market-based forecasts expands in awards...

Mike Breen

March 16, 2026

Data

Kalshi Posts Record $2.9B Week on NCAA Basketball Tournaments as Polymarket Dips

Kalshi posted a new volume record for the week of March 9-15, surging to $2.9B on the back of NCAAB conference tournaments. Meanwhile, Polymarket dipped 6% ahead of the March fed...

Valerie Cross

March 16, 2026

Kalshi and Polymarket hit record combined volume

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Prediction Markets Hit $5.9B as Kalshi and Polymarket Set Combined Weekly Record

Kalshi ($2.86B) and Polymarket ($2.50B) had their best combined week on record as Polymarket surpassed $1B in sports for the first time. Tracking also now available for Polymarket US and...

Valerie Cross

March 9, 2026

Data

Trump Speech Generated $11.97M in Volume, Kalshi Hourly Breakdown

Kalshi's mention market on Trump's speech took in 391,165 trades over 46 days of live markets . 79% of the money showed up on speech night for a total of 11.97 million in lifetime...

Cheryle Shepstone

February 25, 2026

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Trump’s State of the Union Is a Multi-Million Dollar Mention Market — Here’s How Traders Are Playing It

We found average hit rate, historical trends, and what two experts have to say about Trump mention markets heading into the State of the Union...

Valerie Cross

February 24, 2026

Data

Prediction Markets Cool to $5.3B After Super Bowl Surge as 6-Month Growth Hits 13x

Weekly volume fell 14.8% to $5.3B after Super Bowl Sunday’s $1.34B spike, yet industry volume has grown 13x in six months. Kalshi continues to lead in sports, Polymarket dominates...

Valerie Cross

February 16, 2026

Data

$1.63B in Super Bowl Prediction Market Volume, $304M on Culture: Full Data Breakdown

We tracked $1.63B in Super Bowl prediction market volume across 68+ markets and 37 mention strikes. Our data shows $304M on halftime, ads etc. and 2,700%+ YoY growth for...

Valerie Cross

February 13, 2026