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A DeFi Rate review of pre-election prices finds Texas accounted for half of Kalshi’s misses, while differing samples limit comparisons with Polymarket US and Kalshi’s own recap.

DeFi Rate’s Election Day snapshot showed the forecast of winners in eight called Senate battlegrounds. South Carolina and two Texas statewide upsets show where traders remained too confident in Republicans.

Kalshi and Polymarket price the likelihood of an outcome, not a candidate’s vote share or an official result. With Election Day approaching, that distinction matters more than ever.

With five days until the midterms, Kalshi traders favor Graham in a tied South Carolina race and give Moody a stronger edge in Florida, where she leads by six points.

Election trading volume reached nearly $104 million across four prediction markets in the first 20 days of October, with Texas Senate and control of the House accounting for much of the increase.

With one day still to trade, Kalshi had already beaten its weekly volume record, driven by World Cup matches, and was on track for its first eight-billion-dollar week.

Both platforms hit March records, then diverged: Kalshi rose 6.4% in the week of March 30 while Polymarket fell 12%, widening Kalshi’s notional volume lead to $932M.

We compared pricing on six prediction market apps and two sportsbooks for NCAA tournament games and found house take varied widely between platforms.

Kalshi posted a new record $3.40 billion notional volume week as Polymarket’s sports volume surged 32% week over week with NCAA basketball tournaments in full swing.

Prediction markets correctly call 19 of 24 Oscar category winners as the role of market-based forecasts expands in awards season.

Kalshi posted a new volume record for the week of March 9-15, surging to $2.9B on the back of NCAAB conference tournaments. Meanwhile, Polymarket dipped 6% ahead of the March fed meeting.

Kalshi and Polymarket had their biggest combined week on record as Polymarket passed a billion dollars in weekly sports volume for the first time.

Kalshi’s mention market on Trump’s speech took in 391,165 trades over 46 days of live markets . 79% of the money showed up on speech night for a total of 11.97 million in lifetime value.

We found average hit rate, historical trends, and what two experts have to say about Trump mention markets heading into the State of the Union address.

Weekly volume fell after the Super Bowl spike, yet industry volume has grown sharply over six months, with Kalshi leading in sports and Polymarket in non-sports markets.

DeFi Rate tracked Super Bowl prediction market volume across dozens of markets and mention strikes, including heavy trading on the halftime show and ads.