DeFi Rate authorPat Evans

California's proposed one-time billionaire tax appears to have enough signatures for the November ballot, but Kalshi and Polymarket traders still expect it to fail.

Roundhill plans six ETFs tracking which party wins the White House in 2028 and Congress in 2026, putting prediction market odds in a format investors already use.

Kalshi and Polymarket price FBI Director Kash Patel's exit from the Trump administration this year as more likely than not.

JD Vance, Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio top 2028 presidential winner markets, while party-level contracts still lean toward a Democratic win.

Kalshi suspended three candidates for trading on their own elections, including Minnesota State Sen. Matt Klein, a co-author of a bill to ban prediction markets.

Kalshi and Polymarket priced Virginia's redistricting referendum as a close, lean-Yes race, matching the narrow result that lets Democrats redraw the congressional map.

Prediction markets now price Ohio's Senate special election between Sherrod Brown and Sen. Jon Husted as a near toss-up with Democrats slightly favored.

Xavier Becerra overtook Tom Steyer as frontrunner after Eric Swalwell left the California governor race, and traders see Steve Hilton as the one likely to advance.

JD Vance leads prediction markets for the 2028 Republican nomination, while Donald Trump trades at low odds and GOP volume trails the Democratic markets.

With no declared candidates, 2028 Democratic nomination markets show Gavin Newsom leading Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff and Kamala Harris in a wide-open field.

The partial Homeland Security shutdown over immigration enforcement funding is now the longest ever, and Kalshi and Polymarket traders expect it to drag on.

Eric Swalwell's odds in the California governor race collapsed within hours of misconduct reports, and dropout markets resolved Yes when he suspended his campaign.

California's top-two primary has traders pricing who advances as well as who wins, with markets expecting a Republican to advance but a Democrat to win in November.

Mary Peltola's entry has made Alaska's Senate race competitive on Kalshi and Polymarket, while the multi-candidate governor market draws even more trading.

Prediction markets are now pricing the next Trump Cabinet exits and new Attorney General after Kalshi and Polymarket traders accurately predicted the Bondi exit.

Georgia voters head to the polls in the GA-14 runoff to elect Marjorie Taylor Greene’s replacement. Prediction markets price a GOP lock, with the real question now shifting to margin.

Sen. Bill Cassidy faces a crowded, contentious Republican primary, but Kalshi and Polymarket show modest volume and price Louisiana as a safe Republican hold.

In its first suits against states, the CFTC and Justice Department argue event contracts are federally regulated swaps and that the agency preempts state gambling laws.

CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller said the agency will aggressively detect, investigate and prosecute insider trading in prediction markets.

Jon Ossoff's Georgia Senate seat is one of the GOP's clearest pickup chances in November, but the Republican primary is quiet on prediction markets so far.