Will the Fed Hike Oct. 28? Get $55 With Kalshi Promo Code RATE

The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting on Wednesday with a rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET. Prediction markets have priced a hold at 94% probability and a quarter-point hike at 6%.

The October hike contract has dropped from 13% to 7% over the past week after Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high but gave no sign the committee would move this month. December is where the market expects the next increase, with a Dec. 9 hike trading at 73% on our Fed rate decision odds page.

If you want to trade on the decision before the statement lands, you can claim the Kalshi promo code RATE during sign-up and unlock a $55 guaranteed bonus.

Kalshi promo code: Enter code RATE
Kalshi new user offer: trade $25, get $55 in trading credit
To qualify: $25 in event contract trades within 90 days of sign-up
Minimum deposit: $10
Bonus arrives: within 24 hours, win or lose
Use it within: 7 days
Where: physically located in one of 48 states or Washington, D.C., not Michigan or Nevada
Terms: 18+, new users only, one bonus per person
Date active: Oct. 27–28, 2026, expires at 2:00 p.m. ET

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How to claim the Kalshi $55 bonus for the Fed rate decision

The Fed decision is one of the most liquid markets on Kalshi, with $166,000 traded in the past 24 hours. If you deposit and trade $25, Kalshi guarantees a $55 bonus, which can go entirely on Wednesday's outcome. Here is how to secure the promo and code before the announcement:

Register for an account: Open Kalshi and create a new account. Use the Kalshi promo code RATE during sign-up. The code cannot be added once the account exists.
Verify your identity: Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), so every user completes a standard identity check with a photo ID and a selfie.
Fund your wallet: Make an initial deposit of at least $10. Bank transfer and crypto are free, while debit card, Apple Pay and Google Pay cost 2%.
Trade the Fed decision market: Buy $25 worth of cumulative event contracts. You can take a position on the October hold, the hike, the December meeting or any other active market.
Receive your bonus: Once your $25 in trades fills, Kalshi credits $55 to your account within 24 hours. The credit expires seven days after it lands.

Fed rate decision prices on Kalshi

Fed holds on Oct. 28: 93.5%, so $100 returns $107
Fed hikes 25 bps on Oct. 28: 6.5%, so $100 returns $1,538
Fed hikes on Dec. 9: 73%, so $100 returns $137
Another hike before 2027: 78%, so $100 returns $128
Fed holds on Jan. 27, 2027: 63%, so $100 returns $159

The quotes above are based on Kalshi's last trades as of Tuesday morning, before fees. Each meeting is its own market, so the December and January contracts are not conditional on what happens Wednesday.

Fed rate decision prediction market preview

The September CPI report on Oct. 14 came in hotter than expected and sent October hike pricing toward 50% within hours, with Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman warning that inflation was broadening out.

Warsh pulled that back within two days. Speaking at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on Oct. 16, a day before the Fed's pre-meeting quiet period began, he said that he does not prejudge meetings and declined to signal October either way, and the implied odds of a hike fell from about 27% before he spoke to under 15% afterward. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and New York Fed President John Williams both said further hikes are likely needed and that there is no urgency to deliver one this month.

The Fed raised rates in September for the first time this cycle, and the committee's own projections call for at least one more increase before year-end. Traders read Wednesday as a pause between two hikes rather than the end of them. The "another hike before 2027" contract trades at 78¢ on Kalshi and 76.5¢ on Polymarket.

The decision comes six days before the Nov. 3 midterms, and the next meeting is scheduled for Dec. 9.

A hold paired with hawkish language pointing at December would settle the October market exactly as priced while moving the Dec. 9 contract.

Trading on the Fed rate decision at Kalshi

Kalshi splits the October decision into five contracts, one for each decision the Fed could make: hold, hike a quarter point, hike by more than that, cut a quarter point, or cut by more. Whichever one matches the move the FOMC announces pays $1.00, and the other four expire at $0.00. The buckets do not overlap, so a half-point hike pays the "more than 25 bps" contract and leaves the quarter-point contract worthless.

The contract settles on the Fed's official statement, released at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, and Kalshi usually pays out within an hour of that. Two edge cases are written into the rules. If the FOMC cancels the meeting, the hold contract resolves Yes. If the Fed delays the statement past the contract's expiration without cancelling the meeting, the contract settles at fair market value instead.

Kalshi charges a trading fee on this market whether your order fills right away or sits on the order book and fills later. An instant fill pays the full rate, and a waiting order that fills later pays a quarter of it. That second charge is specific to the Fed decision market, since on most other Kalshi markets a waiting order pays no fee at all.

If you buy 100 hold contracts at 93.5¢, you pay $93.50 plus a 43¢ taker fee and collect $100 if the Fed stands pat, a net gain of about $6.07. If you buy 100 hike contracts at 6.5¢, you pay $6.50 plus 43¢ and collect $100 if the Fed raises a quarter point. You can also sell either position before settlement at the market price. Either position counts toward the $25 in trades that unlocks the $55 bonus, so a Fed rate call placed with the Kalshi promo code RATE before Wednesday's statement can double as the trade that triggers your credit.

Kalshi's rules bar Federal Reserve employees involved in preparing the meeting or the rate release, their household members, and anyone the exchange judges to hold material nonpublic information from trading the series.