FIFA Round of 32 World Cup Qualifier Predictions

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Author Martin Green

Martin Green

Martin Green covers World Cup prediction markets for DeFi Rate, bringing more than a decade of soccer handicapping experience to the 2026 tournament cycle. The London-based writer is best known as "The Guru" at SportsLin…

Editor Christopher Feery

Christopher Feery

Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Caten…

Forty-eight teams will head to North America to compete in the World Cup this summer, but only 32 will reach the knockout stage. You can visit Kalshi or Polymarket to predict which teams will qualify for the Round of 32. Elite teams like France and Argentina are considered locks, but you can unlock value if you look further down the field. Our 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 qualifier odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a historical timeline on how each country is performing and who is most likely to make it.

World Cup Round of 32 qualifier odds

Below are the Top 25 contenders in the World Cup Round of 32 qualifier odds. 

Latest World Cup Round of 32 odds as of June 2, 2026

Who will reach the World Cup Round of 32?

At one end of the spectrum, we have elite teams like France, Spain, England, Portugal, Brazil, and Argentina. They’re all but certain to reach the Round of 32. At the other end, you’ll find the likes of Curaçao, Haiti, and Iraq. Those teams have a very slim chance of reaching the knockout stage of the World Cup. The real value lies somewhere in the middle, as teams like South Korea, Scotland, and Canada face a tricky path, but they have enough quality to make it.

World Cup Round of 32 favorites

The world’s best teams look all but certain to reach the Round of 32 at the World Cup. It would be a huge upset if any of these teams crashed out in the group stage.

• France: Les Bleus have landed in a difficult group alongside Norway and Senegal, but they should have enough firepower to reach the Round of 32. France is an outright World Cup favorite, so it would be shocking if it were eliminated in the group stage.
• Spain: La Roja are on a 30-game unbeaten streak, and the reigning European champions should make short work of Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia in Group H.
• England: The Three Lions normally go deep into major tournaments, and they should get the better of Croatia, Ghana, and Panama in their group.
• Brazil: Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha should fire Brazil to victory over Haiti and Scotland in Group C. Vinícius scored in Brazil’s 1-1 draw with Morocco on Matchday 1, and he looks dangerous.
• Argentina: The reigning world champion will have a wealth of attacking talent at this tournament, led by Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez, and Lautaro Martínez.
• Germany: Die Mannschaft were eliminated in the group stage at the last two World Cups, but they have a stronger squad this time around. They thrashed Curaçao 7-1 in their opener.
• Portugal: This squad is stacked with world-class players, including Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes, Bernardo Silva, João Neves, and Vitinha.
• Belgium: The Belgians look vastly superior to Group G opponents Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand.
• Netherlands: The Oranje ended up in a tough group alongside Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia, but they have a very strong spine and should reach the quarterfinals. They could only draw 2-2 with Japan in their opening match, but they’re still expected to go deep into the tournament.
• Switzerland: The group stage draw was kind to Switzerland, which ended up in Group B, along with Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Qatar. Switzerland looks like the strongest team in that group, so it really should reach the Round of 32. The Swiss drew with Qatar in their opener, so they’ll need to improve as the tournament wears on.

Colombia, the Netherlands, Ecuador, Morocco, Uruguay, the USA, Austria, Croatia, Türkiye, and Japan should also sail into the Round of 32. They all have more than enough quality to clinch top-two finishes in their groups. The situation is more precarious for other strong teams.

For example, Norway has landed in a tough group along with France and Senegal. The Norwegians could conceivably finish third but may not rack up enough points to be one of the eight best third-place teams. Traders only give Norway an 84% chance of qualifying.

Sweden is in a similar situation, as it’s in a group alongside the Netherlands, Japan, and Tunisia, although it eased to a 5-1 win against Tunisia on Matchday 1. The Ivory Coast is another quality team. The Elephants landed in Group E along with Germany and Ecuador, but they beat Ecuador in their first game, giving them a great chance of reaching the knockout stage. 

If you want to take less risk, consider backing a team that’s in a more lopsided group. For instance, Uruguay really should get the better of Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia in Group H, while Colombia should sweep aside DR Congo and Uzbekistan in Group K.

World Cup Round of 32 long shots and value plays

The best value plays for the World Cup Round of 32 are priced somewhere between 67% and 76%. These teams have a great chance of qualifying for the knockout stage, but they still offer plenty of upside for traders:

• South Korea: The Taeguk Warriors are priced at 67% with prediction markets to reach the Round of 32. They should have no trouble clinching a top-two finish in Group A, which also features Mexico, Czechia, and South Africa.
• Mexico: El Tri should also escape Group A, as they’ll benefit from passionate home support at this tournament, and the players should have no trouble dealing with the heat. They beat South Africa 2-0 in their opening game, which bodes well for their chances of making the Round of 32.
• Egypt: The Pharaohs were fortunate to land in Group G. Belgium should win that group, but Egypt looks superior to Iran and New Zealand.
• Canada: Canada looks perfectly capable of finishing second in Group B, ahead of Qatar and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Home advantage will be crucial for Jesse Marsch’s team. Canada could only draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina in their opening game of the tournament, so it may need to beat Qatar to guarantee a place in the Round of 32.
• Scotland: The Scots may struggle to finish second in Group C, which also features Brazil and Morocco. However, they beat Haiti 1-0 on Matchday 1, giving them a great chance of being one of the eight third-place teams to advance to the Round of 32.

If you want a longer shot, you could consider DR Congo (45%) or Iran (57%). DR Congo is likely to lose to Portugal and Colombia, but it could beat Uzbekistan, giving it a decent chance of being one of the eight best third-place teams. 

Iran could struggle against Belgium, but it could conceivably grind out a draw against Egypt and beat New Zealand. That gives the Iranians a solid chance of qualifying for the Round of 32.

How teams qualify for the World Cup Round of 32

The World Cup previously featured just 32 teams. They were split into eight groups of four, and the top two teams in each group advanced to the Round of 16. The 2026 World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams, and FIFA has added a new Round of 32. Here’s how teams can qualify:

• The teams are split into 12 groups of four. The top two teams in each group will advance to the Round of 32.
• Teams are ranked in order of the number of points they earn. You get 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw (tie). If teams finish level on points, goal difference (goals scored minus goals conceded) is used as a tiebreaker. Further tiebreakers are goals scored, head-to-heads, and FIFA world rankings.
• The eight best third-place teams also advance to the Round of 32. The remaining four third-place teams will be eliminated. Once again, teams are ranked by points accrued, goal difference, and then goals scored.

You can continue buying contracts on the Round of 32 qualification markets once the group stage gets underway. Look out for any teams that suffer shock defeats, as you’ll often find great prices on them. 

For example, Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia in its opening game of the 2022 World Cup, but it went on to lift the trophy. Backing Argentina after it lost to Saudi Arabia would have been a very profitable trade.

How to trade World Cup Round of 32 prediction markets

Sites like Kalshi let you make predictions on real-world events, from elections and inflation prints to soccer games. They aren’t sportsbooks, so you’re not betting against the house. You’re trading event contracts with other traders, and the site simply acts as the middleman.

It’s important to choose a prediction site that’s federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That means it’s legal for you to buy World Cup contracts, provided the site is available in your state.

Here’s how to buy World Cup Round of 32 contracts at prediction markets:

• Sign up with a prediction site and navigate to the correct page. It’s listed as “FIFA World Cup team to advance to the knockout stages” at Polymarket. You need to visit the “Group Qualifiers” section at Kalshi and then choose a specific group.
• Find a team you want to back. For example, you might find this option: “Scotland – yes 73¢, no 29¢. If you think Scotland will reach the Round of 32, hit “Yes.”
• Your selection will appear on the slip. Enter the amount you’d like to trade. For example, you could enter $50. If so, the site will explain that you’ll win $67.94 if Scotland qualifies for the Round of 32. Click to confirm the trade.

You can then wait until the end of the group stage to see if Scotland qualifies. Each contract will settle at $1 if the team reaches the Round of 32 or $0 if it fails to do so. Alternatively, you can sell your contracts early. 

For example, if Scotland beats Haiti in its opener, “Yes” contracts might be selling for 85¢, as the market prices in developments. You could then sell your contracts for a profit, without waiting to see how Scotland gets on in its subsequent games. Another option would be to sell some contracts and leave the rest open.

Where to trade World Cup Round of 32 markets

You can trade on the World Cup at leading prediction market platforms, many of which have promos available for new users.   

• Kalshi: You can predict which teams will qualify from each group at Kalshi. Liquidity varies, with the most volume traded on tight groups like Group A, Group C, and Group F.
• Polymarket: The site has a simple “FIFA World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages” page. You’ll find yes/no prices on each team there, from Spain to Haiti.
• DraftKings: DraftKings Predictions launched in December 2025 in a bid to compete with more established rivals like Polymarket. The site offers a clean, simple layout, plus plenty of soccer markets to explore.
• Fanatics: Fanatics started as an online retailer, but the Florida-based company has been expanding aggressively in recent years. The company launched Fanatics Markets in December 2025 via a partnership with Crypto.com.
• Underdog: The fantasy sports operator has also moved into prediction markets, so it will compete with the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket for volume during the World Cup.

Other World Cup prediction markets

There are lots more World Cup markets at the top prediction sites. They have markets on each game, plus a long list of futures options:

• World Cup winner: Simply predict which team will win the World Cup.
• Reach a certain stage: Kalshi has contracts on whether each team will reach the Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final.
• Stage of elimination: You can also predict the precise stage in which a team will be eliminated: group stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, quarterfinals, semifinals, or the final (runner-up).
• Golden Boot: A prediction on which player will score the most goals at the World Cup. There are lots of other futures markets on player awards and individual player performances, too.
• Group winners: Buy yes/no contracts on any team to win its group at the World Cup.
• World Cup props: There are loads of special markets, from the total goals in a specific group to the winning continent.