Round of 16 World Cup Qualifier Odds

The World Cup Round of 16 concluded on July 7. France, Morocco, Spain, Belgium, Norway, England, Argentina, and Switzerland advanced to the quarterfinals. The following teams were eliminated in the Round of 16: Paraguay, Canada, Portugal, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Egypt, and Colombia.

Who reached the Round of 16?

The World Cup Round of 16 served up some blockbuster clashes. These are the games that soccer fans could look forward to:

• Canada vs. Morocco
• Paraguay vs. France
• Brazil vs. Norway
• Mexico vs. England
• Portugal vs. Spain
• USA vs. Belgium
• Argentina vs. Egypt
• Switzerland vs. Colombia

Traders saw Mexico vs. England and USA vs. Belgium as coinflips, with very similar odds on each team advancing to the next round. However, England beat Mexico 3-2 and Belgium picked up a 4-1 win against Team USA. Prediction markets expected Morocco, France, Brazil, Spain, and Argentina to advance, but Norway caused an upset by beating Brazil 2-1.

How each team qualified for Round of 16

The 2026 World Cup features an expanded format, as the field has now been increased from 32 teams to 48 teams. This is how each team can clinch a place in the Round of 16:

• The teams were divided into 12 groups. Each group featured four teams, and they played each other once in the group stage.
• At the end of the group stage, the top two teams in each group automatically qualified for the Round of 16.
• The eight best third-place teams also advanced to the Round of 32 (the teams with the most points, or the best goal differences).
• The World Cup knockout stage then began with the Round of 32. It’s a single-elimination bracket, so only 16 teams advanced to the next round.

How to trade Round of 16 prediction markets

Prediction sites let you buy contracts on whether a certain team will reach the World Cup Round of 16. For example, let’s say you think Norway will qualify for the Round of 16. To make that prediction, follow these steps:

• Visit a prediction site and navigate to the World Cup Round of 16 contract page.
• You might then see these options: “Norway to qualify – yes 54¢, no 47¢.”
• Click “Yes,” and your pick will appear on the slip.
• Enter the amount you’d like to trade. For example, you could enter $100. If so, the site would tell you that you’re buying 186 contracts at 54¢ each.
• Confirm the trade, and the contracts will be added to your account.

After making the trade, you have a couple of options. You could wait to see if Norway reaches the Round of 16. If so, each contract will settle at $1. That means you’ll receive $186, which equates to an $86 profit.

Alternatively, you could sell your contracts early. For instance, if Norway escapes the group stage and lands a favorable Round of 32 draw, you might find that the contracts are worth 86¢. At that point, you could sell all your contracts, earning a healthy profit without waiting to see if Norway wins its Round of 32 game. You could alternatively sell some contracts and leave the rest riding on the result of that match.

Sites like Polymarket and Kalshi are functionally similar to sportsbooks, as they give you the chance to earn a profit by making correct predictions about sports events. However, they’re different from a legal perspective. You aren’t betting against the house. Instead, you’re trading against fellow soccer fans, and the sites take a hosting fee. Sites like Kalshi are federally regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, and it’s legal to buy and sell event contracts on these sites.

Prediction sites with Round of 16 markets

• Kalshi: Kalshi was the first prediction site to launch World Cup Round of 16 qualifiers contracts. Liquidity is still thin, with around $70,000 staked, so the prices can fluctuate dramatically daily. We expect more volume in the build-up to the World Cup, so the price swings should be smaller.
• Polymarket: This popular site has launched a wide range of 2026 World Cup prediction markets. Liquidity is strong, as Polymarket has a large global footprint. Round of 16 contracts haven’t appeared yet, but they should be available soon.
• DraftKings: The sports betting giant expanded into prediction markets in December 2025. You can browse a range of World Cup markets at DraftKings Predictions, which is renowned for offering a beginner-friendly user interface and fast payouts.
• Fanatics: The Florida-based online retailer launched an online sportsbook in 2023, and it now has a prediction site too. Fanatics Markets is offering contracts on the first round of group stage games, and there are also some World Cup futures options.
• Underdog: You can use the Underdog Predict promo code DEFIRATE to claim a $50 welcome bonus at this up-and-coming site. That’s one of the best sign-up bonuses at any prediction site right now.

Other World Cup prediction markets

The leading prediction sites have launched a huge range of World Cup markets. You can make predictions on each game, including the moneyline, spread, totals, and both teams to score. There are several other markets to consider, including:

• World Cup winner: Simply predict which team will win the World Cup. France is the current favorite, ahead of Spain, England, Portugal, Brazil, and Argentina.
• Reach a certain stage: You can predict whether a team will reach the Round of 32, the quarterfinals, the semifinals, or the final, too. The best sites also let you predict which stage each team will be eliminated in.
• Golden Boot: Predict which player will be the top scorer at the World Cup. Kylian Mbappé is the favorite, but he faces competition from Lionel Messi, Harry Kane, Erling Haaland, and other elite forwards. There are futures on other individual awards too, including the Golden Ball (best player), Silver Ball, and Bronze Ball.
• World Cup props: There are loads of special markets on the World Cup. For example, you can predict the winning continent, the highest scoring group, the lowest scoring group, the best performing African team, or who will have the most goal contributions between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.