France’s chances of winning the 2026 World Cup ended after it lost 2-0 to Spain in the semifinals. That was a shock, as Les Bleus were the clear favorites to lift the trophy. They were priced at 40.1% with Kalshi and 38.6% with Polymarket to win the World Cup prior to that game, but they were outplayed by a well-drilled Spain team. Mikel Oyarzabal opened the scoring from the penalty spot after a rash challenge from Lucas Digne on Lamine Yamal, and Pedro Porro made it 2-0 in the second half. France’s star forwards were blunted, as Spain dominated the ball and suffocated France when out of possession.
France’s 2026 World Cup campaign
Les Bleus finished fourth at the 2026 World Cup after losing 6-4 to England in the bronze medal match. They badly missed defensive lynchpin William Saliba, who went off with a back injury in their defeat to Spain in the semifinals. France was 4-0 down at halftime, but the players mounted a spirited comeback after the break. Kylian Mbappé scored twice, taking his tally to a record 10 goals at this summer’s World Cup, and PSG winger Bradley Barcola was also on target. However, England’s Bukayo Saka then completed his hat trick from the penalty spot. Ousmane Dembélé pulled a goal back, but Jude Bellingham made it 6-4 deep into injury time.
Up until that defeat to Spain, France had been playing with an air of invincibility. Mbappé was on fire, and prediction markets expected him to fire his team to glory. He scored twice as Les Bleus beat Senegal 3-1, and he fired in another two goals in a 3-1 win against Iraq. Mbappé couldn’t find the net in France’s third group stage game, but Dembélé’s hat-trick inspired the team to a 4-1 victory over Norway.
Mbappé then scored twice in a 3-0 win against Sweden in the Round of 32, and Barcola also scored his second goal of the tournament. Fellow forward Michael Olise has provided five assists, which is more than any other player. Mbappé’s 71st-minute penalty kick earned France a 1-0 win against Paraguay in the Round of 16, and he added a goal and an assist for Dembélé in the 2-0 victory over Morocco in the quarterfinals. France was priced at 59% with prediction sites to advance to the final at Spain’s expense, but it second best in their semifinal showdown.
That has been a familiar story for this team. Les Bleus were outclassed when they lost 2-1 to Spain in the semifinals of Euro 2024, and they lost 5-4 to Spain in the UEFA Nations League final in 2025. Didier Deschamps, the man who led them to World Cup glory in 2018, will now pass on the torch to new manager Zinedine Zidane. He will try restore France to its former glories, but he’ll need to find a way to beat this remarkable Spain team.
Key players for France
France has one of the world’s best squads. Manager Didier Deschamps called upon world-class players from huge clubs like PSG, Real Madrid, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, and Barcelona, and these are the players we’ve enjoyed watching at the 2026 World Cup.
- Kylian Mbappé: The Real Madrid striker scored 10 goals in eight games at the 2026 World Cup. He also won the Golden Boot at the 2022 World Cup after firing in eight goals during that tournament. Mbappé scored 25 goals in 31 La Liga appearances last season, winning him the Pichichi Trophy, so he carried a great deal of momentum into the tournament. He was also the top scorer in the Champions League.
- Ousmane Dembélé: The versatile forward won the Ballon d’Or (world’s best player) award for 2025 after leading PSG to Champions League glory. His 2025/26 season was disrupted by injuries, but he’s looked back to his brilliant best at the World Cup, scoring six goals.
- Michael Olise: The Bayern Munich playmaker was born and raised in England, but he opted to represent France – his mother’s country. That was a major coup for Les Bleus, as Olise has emerged as one of the world’s best wingers over the past two years. He has been deployed as a No. 10 for France, and he provided seven assists at the World Cup.
- William Saliba: Saliba is now one of the world’s best central defenders. He has been very consistent for Arsenal in recent years, and he was set to be France’s defensive lynchpin at the World Cup. Saliba helped France keep clean sheets against Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco, but France struggled after he went off injured in the semifinal clash with Spain.
How to trade France at future tournaments
Prediction markets let you buy and sell contracts on soccer outcomes. Each contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the price reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome happening. If you buy a “France to win the World Cup” contract at $0.11, you’re paying 11 cents for a contract that pays out $1.00 if France wins. Your maximum profit is $0.89 per contract, and your maximum loss is the $0.11 you paid.
You don’t have to hold a contract until the event settles. If France goes on a winning run and the price rises to $0.20, you can sell your contracts early and lock in a profit without waiting for the final whistle. Prices move in real time based on supply and demand, so prediction markets function like a stock exchange for sports outcomes.
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket each set their own fee structures, spreads, and liquidity levels. That’s why our tracker aggregates pricing across platforms — so you can spot the best entry points and identify any pricing gaps between venues.