Prediction Markets Fed Chair Nominee

Kevin Warsh Officially Nominated to Fed Chair on March 4

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Updated 7 months ago · 8:40 AM PST

Next Attorney General

President Trump announced this morning that he's nominating Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, beating out Judy Shelton. Warsh previously served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, where he was central to the bank's response to the 2008 financial crisis. He was a finalist in the 2017 Fed chair search before Trump ultimately selected Powell. Prediction markets signaled the pick hours before the official announcement. On Kalshi's Fed chair market, Warsh's odds surged from 31.2% to 81% on the evening of January 29 after reports emerged that he had met with Trump at the White House. By this morning, his probability had climbed above 95%.

Largest Spread

3.68%

Kevin Warsh

Current Favorite

93.4%

Kevin Warsh +54.4%

Total Volume (Share)

—

Momentum Leader

+54.4%

Kevin Warsh All-time change

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

KW

Kevin Warsh

Vol — Spread 3.7%

Agg 93.4%

↑ +54.4%

F 97.0%

K 93.5%

P 93.3%

ForecastEx 97.0%

Vol $15.9M 99–100¢

Polymarket 93.3%

Vol $52.1M 99.8–99.9¢

JS

Judy Shelton

Vol — Spread 0.6%

Agg 4.1%

↑ +2.7%

P 4.1%

F 4.0%

K 3.5%

Polymarket 4.1%

Vol $109.9M 0.1–0.2¢

ForecastEx 4.0%

Vol $28.4M 0–1¢

SM

Stephen Miran

Vol $24.1M Spread 0.0%

Agg 0.5%

↑ +0.3%

P 0.5%

K 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $22.8M 0.1¢

Vol $1.3M 0–1¢

MB

Michelle Bowman

Vol — Spread 1.6%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -1.3%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $3.5M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $26.0M 0.1¢

RR

Rick Rieder

Vol — Spread 0.2%

Agg 0.4%

↓ -4.5%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Vol $4.4M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $35.5M 0.1¢

DTH

Donald Trump (Himself)

Vol $23.6M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.3%

↑ +0.2%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $24.5K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $23.6M 0.1¢

CW

Christopher Waller

Vol — Spread 1.8%

Agg 0.3%

↓ -13.1%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $3.4M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $29.2M 0.1¢

KH

Kevin Hassett

Vol — Spread 1.8%

Agg 0.3%

↓ -37.9%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $5.2M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $36.1M 0.1¢

BP

Bill Pulte

Vol $24.5M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $12.1K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $24.5M 0.1¢

AL

Arthur Laffer

Vol $21.2M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.3%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $2.7K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $21.2M 0.1¢

DM

David Malpass

Vol — Spread 2.0%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -0.1%

F 2.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $14.1K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $6.3M 0.1¢

BT

Barron Trump

Vol $20.9M Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $20.9M 0.1¢

DZ

David Zervos

Vol $18.0M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $61.0K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $17.9M 0.1¢

HL

Howard Lutnick

Vol $3.0M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $6.8K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $3.0M 0.1¢

JBB

James B. Bullard

Vol $2.8M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $22.3K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $2.8M 0.1¢

JY

Janet Yellen

Vol $21.3M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $341 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $21.3M 0.1¢

JP

Jerome Powell

Vol $27.9M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $12.7K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $27.9M 0.1¢

LK

Larry Kudlow

Vol $10.4M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $2.7K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $10.4M 0.1¢

LL

Larry Lindsey

Vol $6.1M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $10.4K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $6.1M 0.1¢

LKL

Lorie K. Logan

Vol $2.9M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $15.2K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $2.9M 0.1¢

MS

Marc Sumerlin

Vol $4.4M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $23.4K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $4.3M 0.1¢

PJ

Philip Jefferson

Vol $10.8M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $13.4K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $10.8M 0.1¢

RP

Ron Paul

Vol $12.7M Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Vol $500 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $12.7M 0.1¢

SB

Scott Bessent

Vol — Spread 2.9%

Agg 0.1%

↓ -2.0%

F 3.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $1.9M 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $38.7M 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	ForecastEx
KW Kevin Warsh	93.4% ↑ +54.4%	3.7%	—	Kalshi 93.5% 99–100¢ Vol $15.9M	Polymarket 93.3% 99.8–99.9¢ Vol $52.1M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 97.0% 99¢
JS Judy Shelton	4.1% ↑ +2.7%	0.6%	—	Kalshi 3.5% 0–1¢ Vol $28.4M	Polymarket 4.1% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $109.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢
SM Stephen Miran	0.5% ↑ +0.3%	0.0%	$24.1M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1.3M	Polymarket 0.5% 0.1¢ Vol $22.8M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
MB Michelle Bowman	0.4% ↓ -1.3%	1.6%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $3.5M	Polymarket 0.4% 0.1¢ Vol $26.0M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢
RR Rick Rieder	0.4% ↓ -4.5%	0.2%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $4.4M	Polymarket 0.4% 0.1¢ Vol $35.5M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
DTH Donald Trump (Himself)	0.3% ↑ +0.2%	0.5%	$23.6M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $24.5K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $23.6M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
CW Christopher Waller	0.3% ↓ -13.1%	1.8%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $3.4M	Polymarket 0.3% 0.1¢ Vol $29.2M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢
KH Kevin Hassett	0.3% ↓ -37.9%	1.8%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $5.2M	Polymarket 0.3% 0.1¢ Vol $36.1M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢
BP Bill Pulte	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$24.5M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $12.1K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $24.5M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
AL Arthur Laffer	0.1% ↓ -0.3%	0.5%	$21.2M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2.7K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $21.2M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
DM David Malpass	0.1% ↓ -0.1%	2.0%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $14.1K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $6.3M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢
BT Barron Trump	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$20.9M	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $20.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
DZ David Zervos	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$18.0M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $61.0K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $17.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
HL Howard Lutnick	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$3.0M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $6.8K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $3.0M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
JBB James B. Bullard	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$2.8M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $22.3K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $2.8M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
JY Janet Yellen	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$21.3M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $341	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $21.3M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
JP Jerome Powell	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$27.9M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $12.7K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $27.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
LK Larry Kudlow	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$10.4M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2.7K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $10.4M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
LL Larry Lindsey	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$6.1M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $10.4K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $6.1M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
LKL Lorie K. Logan	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$2.9M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $15.2K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $2.9M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
MS Marc Sumerlin	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$4.4M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $23.4K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $4.3M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
PJ Philip Jefferson	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$10.8M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $13.4K	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $10.8M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
RP Ron Paul	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$12.7M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $500	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $12.7M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx — —
SB Scott Bessent	0.1% ↓ -2.0%	2.9%	—	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1.9M	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $38.7M	Gemini — —	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢