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Fed Chair Nominee Odds and Predictions

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Updated 43 minutes ago · 8:41 AM PST

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Prediction markets currently have Rick Rieder as the favorite at 60.2% probability of being named, or -151 odds and Kevin Warsh at 21.4%, or +367. Our Fed Chair nominee odds tracker aggregates live pricing from Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini to show consensus probabilities on who Trump will formally nominate to replace Jerome Powell. Total volume stands at $5.6M in the last 24 hours. It's expected the announcement will come early this month, though markets have set settlement date for Dec. 31, 2026. Our data is updated hourly using volume-weighted average pricing across Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.

Largest Spread

0.77%

Kevin Warsh

Consensus Leader

60.2%

Rick Rieder

24H Volume (Share)

$5.6M

Momentum Leader

—

24H change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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Rick Rieder

Vol $1.3M Spread 1.5%

Agg 60.2%

↑ +26.3%

G 61.5%

P 60.3%

K 60.0%

Gemini 61.5%

Vol $2.1K 59–64¢

Polymarket 60.3%

Vol $711.5K 60.2–60.4¢

Kalshi 60.0%

Vol $540.6K 59–61¢

Kevin Warsh

Vol $582.3K Spread 5.0%

Agg 21.4%

↓ -21.1%

F 26.0%

K 23.5%

P 21.0%

G 21.0%

ForecastEx 26.0%

Vol $2.0K 26¢

Kalshi 23.5%

Vol $96.9K 23–24¢

Polymarket 21.0%

Vol $483.4K 20–22¢

Gemini 21.0%

Vol $50 19–23¢

Christopher Waller

Vol $376.4K Spread 5.5%

Agg 6.4%

↓ -6.6%

F 11.0%

P 6.5%

G 6.0%

K 5.5%

ForecastEx 11.0%

Vol $184 11¢

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $359.1K 6.4–6.5¢

Gemini 6.0%

Vol $5 4–8¢

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $17.1K 5–6¢

Kevin Hassett

Vol $425.3K Spread 3.5%

Agg 4.5%

↓ -2.0%

F 8.0%

K 5.5%

G 5.5%

P 4.5%

ForecastEx 8.0%

Vol $9 8¢

Kalshi 5.5%

Vol $14.2K 5–6¢

Gemini 5.5%

Vol $0 3–8¢

Polymarket 4.5%

Vol $411.1K 4–5¢

Scott Bessent

Vol $288.0K Spread 0.7%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -0.8%

F 3.0%

K 2.5%

P 2.3%

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $0 3¢

Kalshi 2.5%

Vol $1.6K 2–3¢

Polymarket 2.3%

Vol $286.5K 2.1–2.5¢

Michelle Bowman

Vol $185.5K Spread 0.9%

Agg 1.2%

↑ +0.4%

F 2.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

ForecastEx 2.0%

Vol $0 2¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $9.3K 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $176.3K 1–1.3¢

Judy Shelton

Vol $224.8K Spread 3.9%

Agg 1.2%

↓ -0.1%

F 5.0%

K 1.5%

P 1.2%

ForecastEx 5.0%

Vol $0 5¢

Kalshi 1.5%

Vol $6.3K 1–2¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $218.5K 1.1–1.2¢

Stephen Miran

Vol $114.8K Spread 0.1%

Agg 0.4%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.4%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1.2K 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.4%

Vol $113.5K 0.3–0.5¢

David Malpass

Vol $213.1K Spread 2.8%

Agg 0.3%

— +0.0%

F 3.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.3%

ForecastEx 3.0%

Vol $0 3¢

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $213.1K 0.2–0.3¢

Jerome Powell

Vol $1.3M Spread 0.4%

Agg 0.2%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.2%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $15 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $1.3M 0.1–0.2¢

LKL

Lorie K. Logan

Vol $6.2K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $33 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $6.1K 0.1¢

DTH

Donald Trump (Himself)

Vol $11.2K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $49 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $11.1K 0.1¢

Bill Pulte

Vol $15.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $41 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $15.1K 0.1¢

Larry Kudlow

Vol $5.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $4 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $5.1K 0.1¢

Ron Paul

Vol $11.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $4 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $11.1K 0.1¢

Larry Lindsey

Vol $4.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $4.1K 0.1¢

Howard Lutnick

Vol $20.2K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $6 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $20.1K 0.1¢

Philip Jefferson

Vol $172.6K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $1 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $172.6K 0.1¢

Marc Sumerlin

Vol $7.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $7.1K 0.1¢

Janet Yellen

Vol $11.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $11.1K 0.1¢

David Zervos

Vol $96.9K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $2 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $96.9K 0.1¢

Arthur Laffer

Vol $6.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $6.1K 0.1¢

JBB

James B. Bullard

Vol $10.1K Spread 0.5%

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

K 0.5%

P 0.1%

Kalshi 0.5%

Vol $0 0–1¢

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $10.1K 0.1¢

Barron Trump

Vol $81.1K Spread —

Agg 0.1%

— +0.0%

P 0.1%

Polymarket 0.1%

Vol $81.1K 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini	ForecastEx
RR Rick Rieder	60.2% ↑ +26.3%	1.5%	$1.3M	Kalshi 60.0% 59–61¢ Vol $540.6K	Polymarket 60.3% 60.2–60.4¢ Vol $711.5K	Gemini 61.5% 59–64¢ Vol $2.1K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
KW Kevin Warsh	21.4% ↓ -21.1%	5.0%	$582.3K	Kalshi 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $96.9K	Polymarket 21.0% 20–22¢ Vol $483.4K	Gemini 21.0% 19–23¢ Vol $50	ForecastEx 26.0% 26¢ Vol $2.0K
CW Christopher Waller	6.4% ↓ -6.6%	5.5%	$376.4K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $17.1K	Polymarket 6.5% 6.4–6.5¢ Vol $359.1K	Gemini 6.0% 4–8¢ Vol $5	ForecastEx 11.0% 11¢ Vol $184
KH Kevin Hassett	4.5% ↓ -2.0%	3.5%	$425.3K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $14.2K	Polymarket 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $411.1K	Gemini 5.5% 3–8¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $9
SB Scott Bessent	2.3% ↓ -0.8%	0.7%	$288.0K	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $1.6K	Polymarket 2.3% 2.1–2.5¢ Vol $286.5K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $0
MB Michelle Bowman	1.2% ↑ +0.4%	0.9%	$185.5K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $9.3K	Polymarket 1.2% 1–1.3¢ Vol $176.3K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢ Vol $0
JS Judy Shelton	1.2% ↓ -0.1%	3.9%	$224.8K	Kalshi 1.5% 1–2¢ Vol $6.3K	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.2¢ Vol $218.5K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
SM Stephen Miran	0.4% — +0.0%	0.1%	$114.8K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket 0.4% 0.3–0.5¢ Vol $113.5K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
DM David Malpass	0.3% — +0.0%	2.8%	$213.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $213.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx 3.0% 3¢ Vol $0
JP Jerome Powell	0.2% — +0.0%	0.4%	$1.3M	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $15	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $1.3M	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
LKL Lorie K. Logan	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$6.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $33	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $6.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
DTH Donald Trump (Himself)	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$11.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $49	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $11.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BP Bill Pulte	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$15.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $41	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $15.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
LK Larry Kudlow	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$5.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $4	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $5.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
RP Ron Paul	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$11.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $4	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $11.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
LL Larry Lindsey	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$4.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $4.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
HL Howard Lutnick	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$20.2K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $20.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
PJ Philip Jefferson	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$172.6K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $172.6K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
MS Marc Sumerlin	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$7.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $7.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JY Janet Yellen	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$11.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $11.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
DZ David Zervos	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$96.9K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $2	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $96.9K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
AL Arthur Laffer	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$6.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $6.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
JBB James B. Bullard	0.1% — +0.0%	0.5%	$10.1K	Kalshi 0.5% 0–1¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $10.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
BT Barron Trump	0.1% — +0.0%	—	$81.1K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 0.1% 0.1¢ Vol $81.1K	Gemini — — Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
KW Kevin Warsh	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 22¢	Sell @ K 23¢	+1.00%	+0.77%	No
CW Christopher Waller	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 6¢	Sell @ P 6.4¢	+0.40%	+0.33%	No
KH Kevin Hassett	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
LKL Lorie K. Logan	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
DTH Donald Trump (Himself)	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
BP Bill Pulte	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
LK Larry Kudlow	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
RP Ron Paul	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
LL Larry Lindsey	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
HL Howard Lutnick	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
PJ Philip Jefferson	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
MS Marc Sumerlin	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
JY Janet Yellen	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
DZ David Zervos	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
AL Arthur Laffer	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
JBB James B. Bullard	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.1¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.10%	-0.10%	No
JS Judy Shelton	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.2¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No
JP Jerome Powell	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.2¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.20%	-0.20%	No
MB Michelle Bowman	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.3¢	Sell @ K 1¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No
DM David Malpass	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.3¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.30%	-0.30%	No
SM Stephen Miran	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 0.5¢	Sell @ K 0¢	-0.50%	-0.50%	No
SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.5¢	Sell @ K 2¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No
RR Rick Rieder	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 61¢	Sell @ P 60.2¢	-0.80%	-1.41%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
RR Rick Rieder	JP Jerome Powell	Polymarket	A 60.30%	B 0.15%	+60.15%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	DM David Malpass	Polymarket	A 60.30%	B 0.25%	+60.05%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	SM Stephen Miran	Polymarket	A 60.30%	B 0.40%	+59.90%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	SM Stephen Miran	Kalshi	A 60.00%	B 0.50%	+59.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	DM David Malpass	Kalshi	A 60.00%	B 0.50%	+59.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	JP Jerome Powell	Kalshi	A 60.00%	B 0.50%	+59.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	MB Michelle Bowman	Polymarket	A 60.30%	B 1.15%	+59.15%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	JS Judy Shelton	Polymarket	A 60.30%	B 1.15%	+59.15%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	MB Michelle Bowman	Kalshi	A 60.00%	B 1.50%	+58.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	JS Judy Shelton	Kalshi	A 60.00%	B 1.50%	+58.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	SB Scott Bessent	Polymarket	A 60.30%	B 2.30%	+58.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	SB Scott Bessent	Kalshi	A 60.00%	B 2.50%	+57.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	KH Kevin Hassett	Gemini	A 61.50%	B 5.50%	+56.00%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	KH Kevin Hassett	Polymarket	A 60.30%	B 4.50%	+55.80%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	CW Christopher Waller	Gemini	A 61.50%	B 6.00%	+55.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	CW Christopher Waller	Kalshi	A 60.00%	B 5.50%	+54.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	KH Kevin Hassett	Kalshi	A 60.00%	B 5.50%	+54.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	CW Christopher Waller	Polymarket	A 60.30%	B 6.45%	+53.85%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	KW Kevin Warsh	Gemini	A 61.50%	B 21.00%	+40.50%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	KW Kevin Warsh	Polymarket	A 60.30%	B 21.00%	+39.30%	Buy spread
RR Rick Rieder	KW Kevin Warsh	Kalshi	A 60.00%	B 23.50%	+36.50%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SM Stephen Miran	Kalshi	A 23.50%	B 0.50%	+23.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	DM David Malpass	Kalshi	A 23.50%	B 0.50%	+23.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	JP Jerome Powell	Kalshi	A 23.50%	B 0.50%	+23.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	MB Michelle Bowman	Kalshi	A 23.50%	B 1.50%	+22.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	JS Judy Shelton	Kalshi	A 23.50%	B 1.50%	+22.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SB Scott Bessent	Kalshi	A 23.50%	B 2.50%	+21.00%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	JP Jerome Powell	Polymarket	A 21.00%	B 0.15%	+20.85%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	DM David Malpass	Polymarket	A 21.00%	B 0.25%	+20.75%	Buy spread
KW Kevin Warsh	SM Stephen Miran	Polymarket	A 21.00%	B 0.40%	+20.60%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Gemini: Public Prediction Markets + ticker endpoints (best bid/ask + last + 24H USD volume when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.