England, France, Morocco and Norway advanced to the World Cup quarterfinals after winning their games over the weekend. The Round of 16 resumes today with two big games: Portugal vs. Spain and USA vs. Belgium.
Prediction markets give the USA a 39% chance of beating Belgium in regulation time today. Team USA is trading at 54% with Polymarket and 52% with Kalshi to advance to the quarterfinals at Belgium’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Here’s how markets are pricing the USA vs. Belgium matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET on FOX from Lumen Field in Seattle.
Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
USA vs. Belgium, 8 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on USA vs. Belgium (*trading available in 49 states)
Traders expect a tight game between the USA and Belgium. Kalshi is offering 52% on the USA to advance and 48% on Belgium, which is close to a coin flip.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (USA) | 54% | 52% |
| To Advance (Belgium) | 47% | 48% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (USA) | 39% | 39% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 29% | 29% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Belgium) | 35% | 36% |
| Regulation Time Spread (USA -1.5) | 19% | 20% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Belgium +1.5) | 82% | 81% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 58% | 58% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 43% | 43% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 63% | 63% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 38% | 38% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (USA) | 50% | 52% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 6% | 5% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Belgium) | 46% | 46% |
How USA vs. Belgium breaks down
Team USA is the slight favorite to beat Belgium when the teams clash in Seattle. The players should be full of confidence after easing to a 2-0 win against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the previous round. Star striker Folarin Balogun opened the scoring in that game, but he was then sent off following an awkward collision with Tarik Muharemović. The USA played well with 10 men, and Malik Tillman’s late free kick wrapped up a comfortable win.
It came at a cost, as Balogun was suspended for this game against Belgium. However, FIFA has now agreed to overturn his suspension after President Donald Trump intervened. It means that Balogun has been cleared to play in that game. FIFA’s decision was highly controversial, but it will give the USMNT a major boost for this game. Balogun has scored three goals in three games so far at this tournament, and Team USA will be much stronger in attack with him leading the line. Balogun is now priced at 40% with Kalshi to score in this match.
Belgium reacted with fury to FIFA overturning the suspension. Coach Rudi Garcia likened the decision to an April Fools’ Day prank, and he vowed to “defend football” in this game. His comments set the stage for a fiery clash between these teams.
The Belgians beat the USMNT 5-2 in a friendly earlier this year, but Team USA has improved since then. Belgium hasn’t looked entirely convincing at this tournament, having drawn with Egypt and Iran in its first two games. However, the Red Devils won their group after thrashing New Zealand 5-1 on Matchday 3, and they then battled to a 3-2 extra-time win against Senegal in the Round of 32.
Both teams to score has paid off in three of Belgium’s four games at this tournament. It’s priced at 63% with Kalshi and Polymarket for this matchup, which could prove popular. The Belgians are dangerous in attack, led by Kevin De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard, Romelu Lukaku, and Alexis Saelemaekers, but the defense looks vulnerable. Team USA has scored 2.75 goals per game at this tournament, as Balogun, Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, and Tillman are all in excellent form. Polymarket has 46% on the USA to score over 1.5 goals in this game, and that could be another popular market.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
There’s one more World Cup matchup taking place today. We’ve explored how Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing this eagerly anticipated game.
Portugal vs. Spain, 3 p.m. ET
Today’s first game is a heavyweight clash between two fierce European rivals. Portugal and Spain will clash in Dallas, and prediction markets anticipate an entertaining matchup.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Portugal vs. Spain (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Portugal) | 34% | 34% |
| To Advance (Spain) | 67% | 67% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Portugal) | 23% | 24% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 27% | 27% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Spain) | 52% | 51% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Portugal +1.5) | 74% | 74% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Spain -1.5) | 27% | 27% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 54% | 54% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 47% | 47% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 59% | 60% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 42% | 41% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Portugal) | 36% | 38% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 5% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Spain) | 59% | 59% |
Spain will be surging with momentum after securing a dominant 3-0 win against Austria in the previous round. Striker Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice in that game, taking his tally to four goals at this tournament. The Spaniards are now on a 34-game unbeaten streak, so it’s easy to see why they’re the favorites to win this matchup.
However, Portugal often raises its game against Spain. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a hat-trick when these teams played out a thrilling 3-3 draw in the 2018 World Cup. They also drew 2-2 in last year’s UEFA Nations League final, and Portugal won the subsequent penalty shootout.
Spain hasn’t conceded a single goal at this tournament, but La Roja’s defense hasn’t faced any elite attackers yet. Portugal has a formidable frontline, featuring Ronaldo, Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto, and assist king Bruno Fernandes. For that reason, both teams to score is trading at 59% on Polymarket.
Portugal also has a superb midfield, featuring Champions League winners Vitinha and João Neves, but prediction markets expect Spain to win this game. It’s the reigning European champion, and it has a genuine superstar in Lamine Yamal. You can back Spain to advance at 67%, or unlock more value by going for Spain to win in regulation time, priced at 51% with Kalshi.
World Cup Round of 16 concludes tomorrow
The World Cup quarterfinals will conclude with two big games tomorrow:
- Argentina vs. Egypt
- Switzerland vs. Colombia
For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
