Latest News
Texas Senate Race Continues To Trade Like a Toss-Up as Paxton Holds a Thin Kalshi Edge
More than $10.6 million has traded on Kalshi’s Texas Senate market since the race turned competitive in August, while Polymarket traders now narrowly favor Democrat James Talarico. The split-screen comes as Republicans, including Sen. Ted Cruz, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and President Donald Trump, publicly acknowledge that Texas is no longer a race they can take for granted.
CFTC
New York Attorney General Asks Federal Court to Disregard CFTC Emergency Order to Kalshi
The Monday letter from NY AG James disputes the validity of the CFTC’s denial of Kalshi’s emergency rule change for consideration in the agency’s lawsuit against the state.
Regulation and Policy
New Jersey Asks Supreme Court to Decide Whether Prediction Markets Are Sportsbooks or Swaps
New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to review its loss to Kalshi, giving the justices a direct chance to resolve the growing split over whether sports-event contracts are federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambling.
The petition comes days after the Ninth Circuit ruled for Nevada and against Kalshi, the opposite conclusion reached by the Third Circuit in New Jersey.
Regulation and Policy
Kalshi Sanctions Congressional Candidate Laurie Buckhout Following Trades She Placed On Her Own Race
Laurie Buckhout, who is running to represent North Carolina’s first congressional district, faces a fine and has been suspended by Kalshi after she traded on markets related to the race she is a candidate in.
Weekly Volume Report
Prediction Markets Top $11B in Contract Volume as Sports, Combos Drive Kalshi Growth
Prediction markets surged to $11.26B weekly contracts as Kalshi set a record, grabbed 90.4% market share, and powered growth through sports and combo markets.
Political Reports
- Over $106M Has Been Traded on LA’s Mayor Race as Bass Holds a Narrowing Edge
- AOC and Ossoff Overtake Newsom in 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee Prediction Markets as Money Floods In
- Prediction Markets Call Trump Candidate Wins In South Carolina and Oklahoma Runoffs, Margins Show His Grip Still Has Limits
- Trump Doubles Down on Mazzei in Oklahoma Governor Runoff After Prediction Markets Missed First Round
- Cook Moves Texas and Iowa Toward Democrats, but Prediction Markets Still See Different November Risks
- Prediction Markets Nail Alaska Primary, Get a Florida Surprise as November Map Starts to Take Shape
Promo News
NFL Week 1 Predictions: Daily Updates and Odds
Overnight, the Buffalo Bills moved from 1.5-point favorites to 1.5-point underdogs against the Houston Texans on Kalshi, although their win price held near 51%. The New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks remained the most actively traded Week 1 matchup at $637,832 in Kalshi game composite volume after adding $61,419 over the last 24 hours.
Promo News
Scott Jennings Leads Next Trump Press Secretary Prediction Markets as White House Considers Candidates
CNN contributor Scott Jennings leads the market to replace outgoing White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, trading at 32% on Kalshi with $1.3 million in volume. President Trump has reportedly told advisers he would prefer a man for the role after four consecutive female press secretaries across his two terms.
Promo News
UFC 330 Odds: Makhachev vs. Machado Picks and Predictions, Kalshi vs. Polymarket
Islam Makhachev headlines UFC 330 as a heavy favorite over Ian Machado Garry, while Dern-Robertson, Abdul-Malik, and Barboza-Ribovics help round out a stacked card.