NFL Preseason Week 1: Prediction Market Odds & What to Watch

NFL preseason Week 1 kicks off on Thursday night and continues on Friday and Saturday. All 32 teams will be in action across 16 games. 

The first full week of preseason action delivers an extended look at rookies and roster battles, with starting units making appearances in some spots.  

Prediction markets are ready for what shapes up to be an active few days for NFL traders. 

NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds & Predictions

Here’s how Kalshi and Polymarket currently price every NFL preseason Week 1 matchup:

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NFL Preseason Week 1 Thursday Games

Week 1 gets underway with six games on Thursday night. Here’s what to expect. 

• 7 p.m. ET – Lions at Bengals: Cincinnati plans to give several starters work, including Joe Burrow. Detroit is taking the opposite approach, with Jared Goff sitting out and many expected to join him on the sidelines. That could leave rookie Luke Altmyer with a significant workload after Teddy Bridgewater recently stepped away from the team.
• 7 p.m. ET – Packers at Steelers (NFLN): Green Bay is expected to play Jordan Love and other starters in Thursday’s opener, giving the first-team offense some early work. Aaron Rodgers appears unlikely to join them, with the Steelers veteran saying this week that he sees little value in preseason action, but Mike McCarthy will make the final call.
• 7:30 p.m. ET – Colts at Patriots: Indianapolis will sit Daniel Jones for its first two preseason games, with Anthony Richardson starting Thursday before Riley Leonard takes over. New England is also expected to hold Drake Maye out, leaving Tommy DeVito and rookie Behren Morton to handle the quarterback work after the teams held a joint practice Tuesday.
• 8 p.m. ET – Cardinals at Raiders (ESPNU): Arizona is changing course after resting most of its starters in the Hall of Fame Game, with Jacoby Brissett and other first-team players expected to see action against Las Vegas. Rookie Carson Beck remains worth watching after an encouraging preseason debut, while the Raiders will get their first game action under new head coach Klint Kubiak.
• 8 p.m. ET – Chargers at Texans: Playing time remains a key question here, with Jim Harbaugh previously indicating that some Chargers veterans could see preseason action while others will be handled more cautiously. Houston enters the opener after DeMeco Ryans put the team through a game-like dress rehearsal in practice, with competition still ongoing along the offensive line, including at right tackle.
• 9 p.m. ET – Titans at 49ers (NFLN): Cam Ward and the Titans starters are expected to see action Thursday after getting a good look at San Francisco during Tuesday’s joint practice. The 49ers are taking the opposite approach, with Kyle Shanahan saying most starters will sit with younger players competing for roles. 

NFL Preseason Week 1 Friday Games

Friday offers a lighter schedule, with three games kicking off simultaneously at 7 p.m. ET.

• 7 p.m. ET – Broncos at Falcons (ESPNU): Atlanta’s quarterback situation provides the biggest storyline, with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. competing for the starting job under new head coach Kevin Stefanski. Penix has been working his way back from last season’s ACL injury. Denver enters the opener hoping for a year-three leap from Bo Nix, with several offensive roles still taking shape during camp.
• 7 p.m. ET – Buccaneers at Jets (NFLN): Tampa Bay and New York will already be familiar with each other after holding joint practices leading into Friday’s game. Jets rookie edge rusher David Bailey, the No. 2 overall pick, made noise in Tuesday’s session after returning from an ankle issue. Both teams can use the preseason opener for further rookie evaluation after getting controlled work against each other’s starters.
• 7 p.m. ET – Dolphins at Commanders: Miami and Washington also meet after a joint practice this week, which Dan Quinn has emphasized as a valuable opportunity to give players controlled situational work. Washington has several competitions worth monitoring, including in the backfield and at safety. Miami enters its first game under a new coaching staff with plenty of roster evaluation still underway.

NFL Preseason Week 1 Saturday Games

Saturday delivers the busiest day of NFL preseason Week 1, with seven games stretching from early afternoon through the evening.

• 1 p.m. ET – Panthers at Bills: Carolina will give its starters their first preseason action Saturday, with Dave Canales targeting roughly 10–20 snaps after sitting most of the first team during the Hall of Fame Game. Buffalo makes its preseason debut, with Sean McDermott‘s plans for Josh Allen and other established starters still worth monitoring.
• 1 p.m. ET – Browns at Bears (NFLN): Cleveland’s unsettled quarterback competition makes this one of Saturday’s most interesting games, with Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders battling for the starting job. Todd Monken has yet to name his starter for the preseason opener. Chicago used Tuesday’s practice as a full game-day simulation as Ben Johnson prepares his team for its first live action of the preseason. 
• 1 p.m. ET – Vikings at Giants (ESPNU): Minnesota enters the preseason after naming Kyler Murray its starting quarterback over J.J. McCarthy, shifting attention toward how the Vikings divide their preseason reps behind center. McCarthy’s workload will be particularly interesting as Minnesota determines his role behind Murray, while New York gets its first game action under John Harbaugh.
• 4 p.m. ET – Rams at Chiefs (NFLN): Los Angeles and Kansas City enter the preseason with established quarterbacks and little reason to expose key veterans to unnecessary work. Patrick Mahomes‘ workload is particularly worth monitoring as he returns from last season’s knee injury, while rookies and roster competitions should account for much of the afternoon. Missouri readers can also compare prediction apps in Missouri for state-specific availability.
• 4 p.m. ET – Jaguars at Saints (ESPNU): Jacksonville has already provided some clarity: Liam Coen plans to sit most veterans and starters after giving them their primary work during joint practice sessions. Offensive coordinator Grant Udinski will also call plays Saturday, leaving Coen free to evaluate the team from a different perspective during the opener.
• 7 p.m. ET – Eagles at Ravens (ESPNU): Philadelphia and Baltimore meet Saturday night with both clubs possessing established starters and plenty to evaluate further down their depth charts. Backup quarterback play and younger players competing for roster spots should carry much of the workload unless either coaching staff changes course on veteran participation closer to kickoff.
• 8 p.m. ET – Cowboys at Seahawks (NFLN): Dallas arrives in Seattle after holding a scrimmage against the Rams earlier in the week, while the Seahawks have several unsettled depth-chart situations heading into their opener. Seattle’s first unofficial depth chart shows competition throughout the roster, including at running back.

What to Consider When Trading NFL Preseason Prediction Markets

Preseason prediction markets come with a different set of variables than regular season games. Results matter less than evaluating players and preparing for Week 1. That can make forecasting these games challenging, but there are key factors that can help you make sense of the matchups. 

• Starter availability and playing time: A few series from a starting offense can change the complexion of a game. Monitor coach announcements closely, especially when one team plans to use starters and the other doesn’t.
• Quarterback rotations: Backup quarterbacks typically handle most preseason snaps. Who starts, how long each quarterback plays, and the quality of the depth behind them can all matter.
• Coaching approach: Teams handle the preseason differently. Some coaches give starters meaningful reps, while others use joint practices for first-team work and keep veterans on the sidelines during games.
• Roster battles and depth: The second half can look dramatically different from the first as teams move deeper down the roster. Strong quarterback and offensive line depth can become particularly important late in games.
• Late-breaking news: Playing time plans can change quickly because of injuries, practices, or coaching decisions. Information released close to kickoff can move prediction market prices.

NFL Futures Prediction Markets to Watch Before Week 1

Preseason games are only one part of the NFL prediction market landscape. Traders are already pricing the biggest questions surrounding the 2026 season, including 2027 Super Bowl odds and what’s going to happen in NFL Week 1. Here are some of the markets gaining the most traction.

• Super Bowl LXI winner: Before a single meaningful game has been played, there has already been over $59M in trading volume at Kalshi, a number that climbs with each passing day. The Rams (16%) top the board, followed by the Bills (8%) and defending champion Seahawks (8%). 
• NFL MVP: Preseason pricing suggests it’s about to be a seriously competitive chase. A quartet of AFC QBs is atop the charts for now. Josh Allen (11%) is a slight favorite, right ahead of Joe Burrow (10%), Justin Herbert (10%), and Lamar Jackson (10%).  
• Regular season Week 1 games: Open for business and actively trading. Volume is already ticking up on several. The season opener, a big game rematch of Patriots vs. Seahawks, recently surpassed $150k in volume at Kalshi. 

Beyond the above, there’s a slew of futures markets to dig into, including win totals, division winners, conference champions, awards, and more. The preseason offers an early opportunity to track prices across these markets, which will continue to evolve throughout the campaign.

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About The Author

Christopher Feery

Christopher has been writing professionally since 2014, with a focus on casinos and sports betting. After New Jersey legalized sports betting in 2018, he shifted his full attention to the gambling industry, joining Catena Media in 2021. He contributes in-depth analysis and guides on many igaming sites.

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