2027 Oscars Odds: Best Predictions on Picture, Actor, Actress & Director

LIVE
Updated 57 minutes ago · 3:46 PM PDT

Prediction markets have The Odyssey leading the 2027 Best Picture nomination race at 98.5%, with Wild Horse Nine at 80.5% and Dune: Part Three at 78.0% among the strongest contenders to win a nomination. The Venice Film Festival is now testing the field. Wild Horse Nine entered the festival near the top of nomination markets and received an enthusiastic early press-screening response, while Ink opened to favorable reviews without a sustained rise in its nomination odds. Markets are also taking shape for Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress. DeFi Rate aggregates live Oscar odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, updated every 30 minutes using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP).

Largest Spread
6.00%
Project Hail Mary
Current Favorite
98.5%
The Odyssey +11.5%
30D Volume (Share)
$108.0K
K: 90.2% P: 9.8%
Momentum Leader
+25.0%
Fjord YTD change

Which Film Will Be Nominated for Best Picture?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:
TO
The Odyssey
Vol $9.6K Spread 1.1%
Agg 98.5%
↑ +11.5%
K 98.5%
P 97.4%
WHN
Wild Horse Nine
Vol $23.2K Spread 1.0%
Agg 80.5%
↑ +17.5%
K 80.5%
P 79.5%
DPT
Dune: Part Three
Vol $1.8K Spread 4.5%
Agg 78.0%
↑ +2.0%
P 82.5%
K 78.0%
PHM
Project Hail Mary
Vol $25.4K Spread 6.0%
Agg 76.5%
↑ +7.0%
P 82.5%
K 76.5%
FJ
Fjord
Vol $1.7K Spread 0.5%
Agg 61.0%
↑ +25.0%
P 61.5%
K 61.0%
DI
Digger
Vol $3.2K Spread 1.0%
Agg 52.5%
↓ -10.5%
K 52.5%
P 51.5%
BE
Behemoth
Vol $1.3K Spread
Agg 42.5%
↑ +16.0%
K 42.5%
AOA
All of a Sudden
Vol $1.3K Spread 2.0%
Agg 29.5%
↑ +3.5%
P 31.5%
K 29.5%
IN
Ink
Vol $6.1K Spread
Agg 26.5%
↑ +19.5%
K 26.5%
JO
Josephine
Vol $496 Spread
Agg 18.5%
↓ -14.5%
K 18.5%
BH
Being Heumann
Vol $1.7K Spread
Agg 18.0%
↓ -7.0%
K 18.0%
TAO
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Vol $3.2K Spread 2.5%
Agg 17.7%
↓ -24.3%
P 19.5%
K 17.0%
TSR
The Social Reckoning
Vol $3.8K Spread 1.0%
Agg 17.6%
↓ -23.4%
K 18.0%
P 17.0%
SAS
Sense and Sensibility
Vol $1.2K Spread
Agg 14.5%
↓ -10.0%
K 14.5%
1F
1949 / Fatherland
Vol $113 Spread 4.0%
Agg 12.5%
↓ -27.5%
P 16.5%
K 12.5%
MI
Michael
Vol $558 Spread 2.0%
Agg 12.5%
— +0.0%
P 14.5%
K 12.5%
TD
The Drama
Vol $176 Spread 2.0%
Agg 5.5%
↑ +0.5%
P 7.5%
K 5.5%
AR
Artificial
Vol $595 Spread
Agg 5.0%
↓ -11.5%
K 5.0%
SR
Saturn Return
Vol $3.6K Spread
Agg 5.0%
↓ -13.0%
K 5.0%
WE
Werwulf
Vol $210 Spread
Agg 4.5%
↓ -20.5%
K 4.5%
CTH
Cry to Heaven
Vol $212 Spread
Agg 4.0%
↓ -25.0%
K 4.0%
ILB
I Love Boosters
Vol $1 Spread
Agg 4.0%
↓ -16.0%
K 4.0%
TES
The Entertainment System Is Down
Vol $7 Spread
Agg 4.0%
↓ -9.0%
K 4.0%
DD
Disclosure Day
Vol $4.8K Spread 0.2%
Agg 3.5%
↓ -38.0%
P 3.8%
K 3.5%
TDO
The Death of Robin Hood
Vol $3 Spread
Agg 3.5%
↓ -9.0%
K 3.5%
AD
Avengers: Doomsday
Vol $5.4K Spread 3.5%
Agg 3.0%
↓ -1.5%
P 6.5%
K 3.0%
JOS
Jack of Spades
Vol $1.9K Spread
Agg 2.5%
↓ -15.5%
K 2.5%
PT
Parallel Tales
Vol $10 Spread
Agg 2.0%
↓ -30.0%
K 2.0%
NTM
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
Vol $6.4K Spread
Agg 1.5%
↓ -28.0%
K 1.5%
OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarket
TO
The Odyssey
98.5%
↑ +11.5%
1.1%
$9.6K
Kalshi 98.5%
98–99¢ Vol $8.3K
Polymarket 97.4%
95.4–99.4¢ Vol $1.3K
WHN
Wild Horse Nine
80.5%
↑ +17.5%
1.0%
$23.2K
Kalshi 80.5%
80–81¢ Vol $19.3K
Polymarket 79.5%
79–80¢ Vol $3.9K
DPT
Dune: Part Three
78.0%
↑ +2.0%
4.5%
$1.8K
Kalshi 78.0%
77–79¢ Vol $1.0K
Polymarket 82.5%
82–83¢ Vol $746
PHM
Project Hail Mary
76.5%
↑ +7.0%
6.0%
$25.4K
Kalshi 76.5%
76–77¢ Vol $24.5K
Polymarket 82.5%
82–83¢ Vol $916
FJ
Fjord
61.0%
↑ +25.0%
0.5%
$1.7K
Kalshi 61.0%
60–62¢ Vol $1.4K
Polymarket 61.5%
44–79¢ Vol $271
DI
Digger
52.5%
↓ -10.5%
1.0%
$3.2K
Kalshi 52.5%
52–53¢ Vol $2.3K
Polymarket 51.5%
51–52¢ Vol $877
BE
Behemoth
42.5%
↑ +16.0%
$1.3K
Kalshi 42.5%
39–46¢ Vol $1.3K
Polymarket
AOA
All of a Sudden
29.5%
↑ +3.5%
2.0%
$1.3K
Kalshi 29.5%
26–33¢ Vol $1.3K
Polymarket 31.5%
31–32¢ Vol $0
IN
Ink
26.5%
↑ +19.5%
$6.1K
Kalshi 26.5%
26–27¢ Vol $6.1K
Polymarket
JO
Josephine
18.5%
↓ -14.5%
$496
Kalshi 18.5%
15–22¢ Vol $496
Polymarket
BH
Being Heumann
18.0%
↓ -7.0%
$1.7K
Kalshi 18.0%
16–20¢ Vol $1.7K
Polymarket
TAO
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
17.7%
↓ -24.3%
2.5%
$3.2K
Kalshi 17.0%
13–21¢ Vol $2.3K
Polymarket 19.5%
18–21¢ Vol $830
TSR
The Social Reckoning
17.6%
↓ -23.4%
1.0%
$3.8K
Kalshi 18.0%
16–20¢ Vol $3.0K
Polymarket 17.0%
11–23¢ Vol $790
SAS
Sense and Sensibility
14.5%
↓ -10.0%
$1.2K
Kalshi 14.5%
13–16¢ Vol $1.2K
Polymarket
1F
1949 / Fatherland
12.5%
↓ -27.5%
4.0%
$113
Kalshi 12.5%
11–14¢ Vol $113
Polymarket 16.5%
12.7–20.2¢ Vol $0
MI
Michael
12.5%
— +0.0%
2.0%
$558
Kalshi 12.5%
11–14¢ Vol $247
Polymarket 14.5%
13–16¢ Vol $311
TD
The Drama
5.5%
↑ +0.5%
2.0%
$176
Kalshi 5.5%
5–6¢ Vol $170
Polymarket 7.5%
5–10¢ Vol $6
AR
Artificial
5.0%
↓ -11.5%
$595
Kalshi 5.0%
2–8¢ Vol $595
Polymarket
SR
Saturn Return
5.0%
↓ -13.0%
$3.6K
Kalshi 5.0%
4–6¢ Vol $3.6K
Polymarket
WE
Werwulf
4.5%
↓ -20.5%
$210
Kalshi 4.5%
1–8¢ Vol $210
Polymarket
CTH
Cry to Heaven
4.0%
↓ -25.0%
$212
Kalshi 4.0%
2–6¢ Vol $212
Polymarket
ILB
I Love Boosters
4.0%
↓ -16.0%
$1
Kalshi 4.0%
1–7¢ Vol $1
Polymarket
TES
The Entertainment System Is Down
4.0%
↓ -9.0%
$7
Kalshi 4.0%
1–7¢ Vol $7
Polymarket
DD
Disclosure Day
3.5%
↓ -38.0%
0.2%
$4.8K
Kalshi 3.5%
2–5¢ Vol $4.2K
Polymarket 3.8%
2.4–5.1¢ Vol $615
TDO
The Death of Robin Hood
3.5%
↓ -9.0%
$3
Kalshi 3.5%
1–6¢ Vol $3
Polymarket
AD
Avengers: Doomsday
3.0%
↓ -1.5%
3.5%
$5.4K
Kalshi 3.0%
1–5¢ Vol $5.4K
Polymarket 6.5%
3.6–9.4¢ Vol $15
JOS
Jack of Spades
2.5%
↓ -15.5%
$1.9K
Kalshi 2.5%
1–4¢ Vol $1.9K
Polymarket
PT
Parallel Tales
2.0%
↓ -30.0%
$10
Kalshi 2.0%
1–3¢ Vol $10
Polymarket
NTM
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
1.5%
↓ -28.0%
$6.4K
Kalshi 1.5%
1–2¢ Vol $6.4K
Polymarket

Predictions for 2027 Best Picture Award

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:
TO
The Odyssey
Vol $16.0K Spread 12.0%
Agg 49.4%
↑ +19.9%
U 61.0%
K 49.5%
P 49.0%
DPT
Dune: Part Three
Vol $1.0K Spread 4.5%
Agg 12.5%
↑ +4.0%
U 17.0%
P 15.5%
K 12.5%
TBB
The Black Ball
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 12.0%
↑ +2.0%
U 12.0%
WHN
Wild Horse Nine
Vol $96 Spread 3.5%
Agg 8.0%
— +0.0%
P 8.5%
K 7.5%
U 5.0%
DI
Digger
Vol $28 Spread 0.6%
Agg 4.5%
↓ -3.0%
P 4.6%
K 4.5%
U 4.0%
FJ
Fjord
Vol $23 Spread 3.5%
Agg 2.0%
— +0.0%
P 5.5%
U 3.0%
K 2.0%
BE
Behemoth
Vol $1 Spread 1.8%
Agg 1.5%
↑ +0.5%
U 2.0%
K 1.5%
P 0.3%
PHM
Project Hail Mary
Vol $139 Spread 2.5%
Agg 1.5%
↓ -6.5%
U 4.0%
P 2.5%
K 1.5%
AD
Avengers: Doomsday
Vol $54 Spread 0.7%
Agg 1.0%
↑ +0.5%
K 1.0%
P 0.3%
TSR
The Social Reckoning
Vol $0 Spread 1.8%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -7.0%
U 2.0%
K 1.0%
P 0.3%
AOA
All of a Sudden
Vol $1 Spread 0.3%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -1.0%
K 0.5%
P 0.3%
AR
Artificial
Vol $13 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -1.0%
K 0.5%
CTH
Cry to Heaven
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
ILB
I Love Boosters
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
IN
Ink
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
JO
Josephine
Vol $5 Spread 2.8%
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
U 3.0%
K 0.5%
P 0.3%
MI
Michael
Vol $10 Spread 0.3%
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
P 0.3%
NTM
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -1.0%
K 0.5%
SAS
Sense and Sensibility
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
TAO
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Vol $0 Spread 1.7%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -1.0%
U 2.0%
K 0.5%
P 0.3%
TDO
The Death of Robin Hood
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
TD
The Drama
Vol $1 Spread 0.2%
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
P 0.3%
TES
The Entertainment System Is Down
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -0.5%
K 0.5%
TI
Tie
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
WE
Werwulf
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
— +0.0%
K 0.5%
DD
Disclosure Day
Vol $0 Spread 0.2%
Agg 0.4%
↓ -3.1%
K 0.5%
P 0.4%
1F
1949 / Fatherland
Vol $0 Spread 0.3%
Agg 0.4%
↓ -3.1%
K 0.5%
P 0.3%
TO
Tony
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.4%
↑ +0.2%
P 0.4%
CL
Clarissa
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.2%
↑ +0.1%
P 0.2%
SR
Saturn Return
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.2%
↓ -2.1%
P 0.2%
OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketPolymarket US
TO
The Odyssey
49.4%
↑ +19.9%
12.0%
$16.0K
Kalshi 49.5%
49–50¢ Vol $11.5K
Polymarket 49.0%
48–50¢ Vol $4.5K
Polymarket US 61.0%
60–61¢ Vol $0
DPT
Dune: Part Three
12.5%
↑ +4.0%
4.5%
$1.0K
Kalshi 12.5%
12–13¢ Vol $1.0K
Polymarket 15.5%
15–16¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 17.0%
16–17¢ Vol $0
TBB
The Black Ball
12.0%
↑ +2.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Polymarket US 12.0%
11–12¢ Vol $0
WHN
Wild Horse Nine
8.0%
— +0.0%
3.5%
$96
Kalshi 7.5%
7–8¢ Vol $46
Polymarket 8.5%
7–10¢ Vol $50
Polymarket US 5.0%
4–5¢ Vol $0
DI
Digger
4.5%
↓ -3.0%
0.6%
$28
Kalshi 4.5%
4–5¢ Vol $28
Polymarket 4.6%
3.3–5.9¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 4.0%
3–4¢ Vol $0
FJ
Fjord
2.0%
— +0.0%
3.5%
$23
Kalshi 2.0%
1–3¢ Vol $23
Polymarket 5.5%
5–6¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 3.0%
1–3¢ Vol $0
BE
Behemoth
1.5%
↑ +0.5%
1.8%
$1
Kalshi 1.5%
1–2¢ Vol $1
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
PHM
Project Hail Mary
1.5%
↓ -6.5%
2.5%
$139
Kalshi 1.5%
1–2¢ Vol $139
Polymarket 2.5%
2–2.9¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 4.0%
3–4¢ Vol $0
AD
Avengers: Doomsday
1.0%
↑ +0.5%
0.7%
$54
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $54
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.5¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
TSR
The Social Reckoning
1.0%
↓ -7.0%
1.8%
$0
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
AOA
All of a Sudden
0.5%
↓ -1.0%
0.3%
$1
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $1
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
AR
Artificial
0.5%
↓ -1.0%
$13
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $13
Polymarket
Polymarket US
CTH
Cry to Heaven
0.5%
— +0.0%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
ILB
I Love Boosters
0.5%
— +0.0%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
IN
Ink
0.5%
— +0.0%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
JO
Josephine
0.5%
— +0.0%
2.8%
$5
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $5
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 3.0%
2–3¢ Vol $0
MI
Michael
0.5%
— +0.0%
0.3%
$10
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $10
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
NTM
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew
0.5%
↓ -1.0%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
SAS
Sense and Sensibility
0.5%
— +0.0%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
TAO
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
0.5%
↓ -1.0%
1.7%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.5¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
TDO
The Death of Robin Hood
0.5%
— +0.0%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
TD
The Drama
0.5%
— +0.0%
0.2%
$1
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $1
Polymarket 0.3%
0.2–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
TES
The Entertainment System Is Down
0.5%
↓ -0.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
TI
Tie
0.5%
— +0.0%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
WE
Werwulf
0.5%
— +0.0%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
DD
Disclosure Day
0.4%
↓ -3.1%
0.2%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 0.4%
0.1–0.6¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
1F
1949 / Fatherland
0.4%
↓ -3.1%
0.3%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
TO
Tony
0.4%
↑ +0.2%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.4%
0.1–0.6¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
CL
Clarissa
0.2%
↑ +0.1%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.2%
0.1–0.3¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
SR
Saturn Return
0.2%
↓ -2.1%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.2%
0.1–0.3¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US

Predictions on 2027 Oscar for Best Actor

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:
MD
Matt Damon
Vol $256 Spread 5.5%
Agg 26.5%
↓ -2.0%
U 32.0%
P 26.5%
JM
John Malkovich
Vol $218 Spread 4.8%
Agg 21.3%
↓ -2.7%
U 22.0%
K 21.5%
P 17.2%
AS
Andrew Scott
Vol $406 Spread 0.5%
Agg 16.5%
↑ +13.5%
K 16.5%
P 16.5%
U 16.0%
TC
Tom Cruise
Vol $143 Spread 1.5%
Agg 14.5%
↓ -10.0%
U 16.0%
P 15.5%
K 14.5%
EH
Ethan Hawke
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 14.0%
↓ -1.0%
U 14.0%
RP
Robert Pattinson
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 7.3%
↓ -4.4%
P 7.3%
JS
Jeremy Strong
Vol $0 Spread 5.0%
Agg 7.0%
↑ +6.3%
P 7.0%
U 2.0%
TC
Timothée Chalamet
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 3.5%
↑ +1.6%
P 3.5%
JT
Jacob Tremblay
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 3.0%
↓ -35.0%
U 3.0%
RG
Ryan Gosling
Vol $0 Spread 0.3%
Agg 2.3%
↓ -0.4%
P 2.3%
U 2.0%
HZ
Hanns Zischler
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 2.0%
↓ -36.0%
U 2.0%
SBC
Sacha Baron Cohen
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 2.0%
↓ -13.0%
U 2.0%
SS
Sebastian Stan
Vol $13 Spread 2.5%
Agg 1.5%
↓ -3.0%
U 4.0%
P 2.5%
K 1.5%
JB
Javier Bardem
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 1.5%
↑ +0.3%
P 1.5%
PP
Pedro Pascal
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.9%
↓ -1.2%
P 0.9%
SR
Sam Rockwell
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.8%
↓ -2.5%
P 0.8%
JJ
Jaafar Jackson
Vol $0 Spread 1.3%
Agg 0.8%
↑ +0.5%
U 2.0%
P 0.8%
CT
Channing Tatum
Vol $5 Spread 1.5%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -2.5%
U 2.0%
K 0.5%
CM
Charles Melton
Vol $0 Spread 19.5%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -2.5%
U 20.0%
K 0.5%
JOC
Josh O'Connor
Vol $0 Spread 10.9%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -4.5%
U 11.0%
K 0.5%
P 0.2%
KR
Keanu Reeves
Vol $0 Spread 1.5%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -2.5%
U 2.0%
K 0.5%
TI
Tie
Vol $14 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -1.0%
K 0.5%
AD
Adam Driver
Vol $0 Spread 2.7%
Agg 0.4%
↓ -2.6%
U 3.0%
K 0.5%
P 0.3%
BP
Brad Pitt
Vol $0 Spread 1.7%
Agg 0.4%
↓ -3.6%
U 2.0%
K 0.5%
P 0.3%
RA
Robert Aramayo
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.3%
↓ -0.2%
P 0.3%
JT
John Turturro
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.2%
↓ -0.1%
P 0.2%
OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketPolymarket US
MD
Matt Damon
26.5%
↓ -2.0%
5.5%
$256
Kalshi
Polymarket 26.5%
26–27¢ Vol $256
Polymarket US 32.0%
31–32¢ Vol $0
JM
John Malkovich
21.3%
↓ -2.7%
4.8%
$218
Kalshi 21.5%
21–22¢ Vol $209
Polymarket 17.2%
13.4–20.9¢ Vol $9
Polymarket US 22.0%
21–22¢ Vol $0
AS
Andrew Scott
16.5%
↑ +13.5%
0.5%
$406
Kalshi 16.5%
16–17¢ Vol $406
Polymarket 16.5%
16–17¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 16.0%
15–16¢ Vol $0
TC
Tom Cruise
14.5%
↓ -10.0%
1.5%
$143
Kalshi 14.5%
14–15¢ Vol $142
Polymarket 15.5%
15–16¢ Vol $1
Polymarket US 16.0%
15–16¢ Vol $0
EH
Ethan Hawke
14.0%
↓ -1.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Polymarket US 14.0%
13–14¢ Vol $0
RP
Robert Pattinson
7.3%
↓ -4.4%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 7.3%
5.6–9¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
JS
Jeremy Strong
7.0%
↑ +6.3%
5.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 7.0%
0.5–13.5¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
TC
Timothée Chalamet
3.5%
↑ +1.6%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 3.5%
1.3–5.7¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
JT
Jacob Tremblay
3.0%
↓ -35.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Polymarket US 3.0%
2–3¢ Vol $0
RG
Ryan Gosling
2.3%
↓ -0.4%
0.3%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 2.3%
2.2–2.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
HZ
Hanns Zischler
2.0%
↓ -36.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
SBC
Sacha Baron Cohen
2.0%
↓ -13.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
SS
Sebastian Stan
1.5%
↓ -3.0%
2.5%
$13
Kalshi 1.5%
1–2¢ Vol $13
Polymarket 2.5%
2–3¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 4.0%
3–4¢ Vol $0
JB
Javier Bardem
1.5%
↑ +0.3%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 1.5%
0.8–2.1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
PP
Pedro Pascal
0.9%
↓ -1.2%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.9%
0.3–1.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
SR
Sam Rockwell
0.8%
↓ -2.5%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.8%
0.5–1.1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
JJ
Jaafar Jackson
0.8%
↑ +0.5%
1.3%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.8%
0.6–0.9¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
CT
Channing Tatum
0.5%
↓ -2.5%
1.5%
$5
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $5
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
CM
Charles Melton
0.5%
↓ -2.5%
19.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US 20.0%
19–20¢ Vol $0
JOC
Josh O'Connor
0.5%
↓ -4.5%
10.9%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 0.2%
0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 11.0%
10–11¢ Vol $0
KR
Keanu Reeves
0.5%
↓ -2.5%
1.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
TI
Tie
0.5%
↓ -1.0%
$14
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $14
Polymarket
Polymarket US
AD
Adam Driver
0.4%
↓ -2.6%
2.7%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 0.3%
0.2–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 3.0%
2–3¢ Vol $0
BP
Brad Pitt
0.4%
↓ -3.6%
1.7%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 0.3%
0.2–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
RA
Robert Aramayo
0.3%
↓ -0.2%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.3%
0.2–0.4¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
JT
John Turturro
0.2%
↓ -0.1%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.2%
0.1–0.2¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US

2027 Best Director odds and predictions

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:
CN
Christopher Nolan
Vol $207 Spread 2.0%
Agg 60.0%
↑ +27.0%
K 60.0%
P 58.0%
DV
Denis Villeneuve
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 21.0%
↑ +7.0%
P 21.0%
JF
Jordan Firstman
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 7.7%
↑ +7.6%
P 7.7%
JE
Jesse Eisenberg
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 7.2%
↑ +1.7%
P 7.2%
LO
Lance Oppenheim
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 6.8%
↑ +3.6%
P 6.8%
AGI
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 6.0%
↓ -4.0%
P 6.0%
MM
Martin McDonagh
Vol $2 Spread 1.0%
Agg 6.0%
↓ -12.5%
P 7.0%
K 6.0%
AS
Aaron Sorkin
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 5.5%
↑ +0.9%
P 5.5%
DOR
David O. Russell
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 5.4%
↑ +5.1%
P 5.4%
PF
Peter Farrelly
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 5.3%
↑ +0.6%
P 5.3%
PLC
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
Vol $0 Spread 5.9%
Agg 4.4%
↑ +0.4%
P 7.4%
K 1.5%
DF
David Fincher
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 2.5%
↓ -6.5%
K 2.5%
OW
Olivia Wilde
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 1.3%
↑ +0.2%
P 1.3%
SS
Steven Spielberg
Vol $0 Spread 1.3%
Agg 1.2%
↓ -5.9%
P 1.8%
K 0.5%
AH
Andrew Haigh
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -6.5%
K 0.5%
DB
Danny Boyle
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -6.5%
K 0.5%
JC
Joel Coen
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -6.5%
K 0.5%
NHJ
Na Hong-jin
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -6.5%
K 0.5%
TI
Tie
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -1.5%
K 0.5%
BT
Bassam Tariq
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.4%
↑ +0.2%
P 0.4%
OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarket
CN
Christopher Nolan
60.0%
↑ +27.0%
2.0%
$207
Kalshi 60.0%
58–62¢ Vol $207
Polymarket 58.0%
57–59¢ Vol $0
DV
Denis Villeneuve
21.0%
↑ +7.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 21.0%
20–22¢ Vol $0
JF
Jordan Firstman
7.7%
↑ +7.6%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 7.7%
1.7–13.7¢ Vol $0
JE
Jesse Eisenberg
7.2%
↑ +1.7%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 7.2%
1–13.5¢ Vol $0
LO
Lance Oppenheim
6.8%
↑ +3.6%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 6.8%
0.3–13.2¢ Vol $0
AGI
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
6.0%
↓ -4.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 6.0%
5–7¢ Vol $0
MM
Martin McDonagh
6.0%
↓ -12.5%
1.0%
$2
Kalshi 6.0%
5–7¢ Vol $2
Polymarket 7.0%
2.6–11.5¢ Vol $0
AS
Aaron Sorkin
5.5%
↑ +0.9%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 5.5%
0.8–10.1¢ Vol $0
DOR
David O. Russell
5.4%
↑ +5.1%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 5.4%
0.6–10.2¢ Vol $0
PF
Peter Farrelly
5.3%
↑ +0.6%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 5.3%
0.2–10.3¢ Vol $0
PLC
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller
4.4%
↑ +0.4%
5.9%
$0
Kalshi 1.5%
1–2¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 7.4%
2.2–12.5¢ Vol $0
DF
David Fincher
2.5%
↓ -6.5%
$0
Kalshi 2.5%
2–3¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
OW
Olivia Wilde
1.3%
↑ +0.2%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 1.3%
0.6–2¢ Vol $0
SS
Steven Spielberg
1.2%
↓ -5.9%
1.3%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 1.8%
0.3–3.3¢ Vol $0
AH
Andrew Haigh
0.5%
↓ -6.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
DB
Danny Boyle
0.5%
↓ -6.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
JC
Joel Coen
0.5%
↓ -6.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
NHJ
Na Hong-jin
0.5%
↓ -6.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
TI
Tie
0.5%
↓ -1.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
BT
Bassam Tariq
0.4%
↑ +0.2%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.4%
0.2–0.6¢ Vol $0

2027 Oscar for Best Actress Award Predictions

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:
JM
Julianne Moore
Vol $235 Spread 7.5%
Agg 62.5%
↑ +35.5%
P 62.5%
U 55.0%
IN
Inde Navarrette
Vol $0 Spread 0.0%
Agg 18.0%
↑ +1.5%
P 18.0%
U 18.0%
SH
Sandra Hüller
Vol $0 Spread 8.5%
Agg 9.4%
↓ -6.6%
K 10.5%
P 8.3%
U 2.0%
RR
Renate Reinsve
Vol $0 Spread 8.0%
Agg 8.8%
↓ -13.8%
P 10.0%
K 7.5%
U 2.0%
AH
Anne Hathaway
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 6.0%
↓ -26.0%
U 6.0%
SW
Shailene Woodley
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 4.0%
↓ -19.0%
U 4.0%
RM
Ruth Madeley
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 2.3%
↓ -2.3%
P 2.3%
MM
Mikey Madison
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 2.0%
↓ -29.0%
U 2.0%
PC
Penélope Cruz
Vol $0 Spread 0.5%
Agg 1.5%
↓ -4.5%
U 2.0%
K 1.5%
VE
Virginie Efira
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 1.5%
↓ -3.0%
P 1.5%
CE
Cynthia Erivo
Vol $0 Spread 1.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -7.0%
U 2.0%
K 1.0%
JC
Joan Collins
Vol $0 Spread 1.0%
Agg 1.0%
↓ -5.0%
U 2.0%
K 1.0%
SJ
Scarlett Johansson
Vol $0 Spread 1.5%
Agg 0.7%
↓ -5.4%
U 2.0%
P 0.8%
K 0.5%
DJ
Dakota Johnson
Vol $0 Spread 1.5%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -5.5%
U 2.0%
K 0.5%
KD
Kirsten Dunst
Vol $0 Spread 2.5%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -5.5%
U 3.0%
K 0.5%
NP
Natalie Portman
Vol $0 Spread 1.5%
Agg 0.5%
↓ -5.5%
U 2.0%
K 0.5%
TI
Tie
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.5%
↓ -1.0%
K 0.5%
SO
Sophie Okonedo
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.4%
↓ -5.1%
P 0.4%
RB
Rachel Brosnahan
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.4%
↓ -5.1%
P 0.4%
LS
Léa Seydoux
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.3%
↓ -4.2%
P 0.3%
MW
Michelle Williams
Vol $0 Spread
Agg 0.3%
↓ -2.3%
P 0.3%
OutcomeAggregatedSpreadVolumeKalshiPolymarketPolymarket US
JM
Julianne Moore
62.5%
↑ +35.5%
7.5%
$235
Kalshi
Polymarket 62.5%
61–64¢ Vol $235
Polymarket US 55.0%
53–55¢ Vol $0
IN
Inde Navarrette
18.0%
↑ +1.5%
0.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 18.0%
17–19¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 18.0%
17–18¢ Vol $0
SH
Sandra Hüller
9.4%
↓ -6.6%
8.5%
$0
Kalshi 10.5%
10–11¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 8.3%
6.9–9.7¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
RR
Renate Reinsve
8.8%
↓ -13.8%
8.0%
$0
Kalshi 7.5%
7–8¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 10.0%
9–11¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
AH
Anne Hathaway
6.0%
↓ -26.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Polymarket US 6.0%
5–6¢ Vol $0
SW
Shailene Woodley
4.0%
↓ -19.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Polymarket US 4.0%
3–4¢ Vol $0
RM
Ruth Madeley
2.3%
↓ -2.3%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 2.3%
0.4–4.1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
MM
Mikey Madison
2.0%
↓ -29.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
PC
Penélope Cruz
1.5%
↓ -4.5%
0.5%
$0
Kalshi 1.5%
1–2¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
VE
Virginie Efira
1.5%
↓ -3.0%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 1.5%
0.3–2.7¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
CE
Cynthia Erivo
1.0%
↓ -7.0%
1.0%
$0
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
JC
Joan Collins
1.0%
↓ -5.0%
1.0%
$0
Kalshi 1.0%
0–2¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
SJ
Scarlett Johansson
0.7%
↓ -5.4%
1.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket 0.8%
0.1–1.5¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
DJ
Dakota Johnson
0.5%
↓ -5.5%
1.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
KD
Kirsten Dunst
0.5%
↓ -5.5%
2.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US 3.0%
2–3¢ Vol $0
NP
Natalie Portman
0.5%
↓ -5.5%
1.5%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US 2.0%
1–2¢ Vol $0
TI
Tie
0.5%
↓ -1.0%
$0
Kalshi 0.5%
0–1¢ Vol $0
Polymarket
Polymarket US
SO
Sophie Okonedo
0.4%
↓ -5.1%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.4%
0.2–0.7¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
RB
Rachel Brosnahan
0.4%
↓ -5.1%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.4%
0.1–0.6¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
LS
Léa Seydoux
0.3%
↓ -4.2%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.5¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US
MW
Michelle Williams
0.3%
↓ -2.3%
$0
Kalshi
Polymarket 0.3%
0.1–0.5¢ Vol $0
Polymarket US

Recent Oscar news and how prediction markets moved

Listed latest first, the table pairs credible reporting with DeFi Rate’s tracking of Kalshi’s first-party hourly candlesticks. Completed entries measure movement from the last traded Yes price before the report’s UTC date to the last price available through roughly 48 hours later. For breaking developments, the table may show the preceding 24- or 48-hour move and identify it as early positioning. Thin trading can leave prices unchanged, and timing does not prove that a report caused the full move.

DateRecent developmentTracked Kalshi movementWhat happened
Sept. 3, 2026Deadline reported that Wild Horse Nine received a rapturous welcome after its first Venice press screening.Wild Horse Nine Best Picture nomination: 71% → 80.5% over the preceding 48 hours (79.5% → 80.5% over 24 hours); Martin McDonagh for Best Director: 2% → 6.5%Most of the film’s nomination rise occurred before the press screening. The early reception supports its awards positioning, but the timing does not prove that reviews caused the move.
Sept. 3, 2026Variety highlighted the developing Oscar conversation around John Malkovich following the Wild Horse Nine press screening.John Malkovich for Best Actor: 21.5% → 18% over the preceding 48 hoursMalkovich’s actor market had not yet confirmed the positive coverage. The report was published shortly before the latest snapshot, leaving limited time for a measurable reaction.
Aug. 14, 2026AwardsWatch’s pre-festival forecast kept Wild Horse Nine among the developing Best Picture contenders.Wild Horse Nine Best Picture nomination: 73% → 71% (briefly 74%)The nomination contract edged two points lower over the measurement window.
Aug. 10, 2026Variety reported that Netflix was moving Here Comes the Flood toward a 2027 release, which would take it out of this Oscar cycle if the schedule holds.No directly comparable contract in DeFi Rate’s tracked Kalshi feedDeFi Rate did not assign movement in another film’s contract to this scheduling report.
July 22, 2026Vanity Fair assessed The Odyssey as a new front-runner and estimated a potential 13 to 15 nominations.The Odyssey Best Picture winner: 49% → 54% (briefly 55%)The winner contract gained five points over the measurement window.

Latest Oscar nomination updates

The Oscar race is beginning to narrow now that the Venice Film Festival is underway and several previously unseen contenders are facing critics.

The Odyssey has made the clearest move. Christopher Nolan’s film arrived in theaters in July with the kind of reviews and commercial attention that can sustain a long awards campaign. Matt Damon is now firmly in the Best Actor discussion, while Nolan and the film are expected to contend in Best Picture, directing and several craft categories. Vanity Fair’s assessment of the film’s Oscar prospects put its potential haul as high as 13 to 15 nominations. Prediction markets draw a clear distinction between making the field and winning: at the latest Aug. 16 update, The Odyssey was priced at 94.1% to earn a Best Picture nomination and 57.3% to win Best Picture. Nolan stood at 66.0% for Best Director, while Damon was at 28.5% for Best Actor.

One expected contender, meanwhile, appears to have fallen off this year’s calendar. Netflix has moved Here Comes the Flood, starring Denzel Washington, Robert Pattinson and Daisy Edgar-Jones, toward a 2027 release, according to Variety. If that schedule holds, the film will miss this Oscar cycle and Washington will lose what had been one of his possible routes into the Best Actor field.

Venice has started to clarify the field. Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine received an enthusiastic early response after its Sept. 3 press screening, intensifying the awards conversation around McDonagh and John Malkovich. The film’s Best Picture nomination and McDonagh’s director markets had strengthened over the preceding 48 hours, although much of the film’s rise came before the screening and Malkovich’s actor price had not followed the positive coverage.

Opening-night film Ink also drew favorable notices and a reported five-minute ovation. Its Kalshi Best Picture nomination odds nevertheless finished slightly lower over the first 24 hours, an early reminder that positive festival reactions do not always produce an immediate market increase.

Pattinson has an unusually crowded awards season even without Here Comes the Flood. He appears in Primetime, The Drama, The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three, leaving open both lead and supporting possibilities. Primetime has begun its Venice publicity cycle, but its first meaningful critical reaction is still needed before treating it as another serious campaign.

The picture should become considerably clearer as Venice continues and Telluride and Toronto add more premieres. For now, The Odyssey remains the established benchmark, Wild Horse Nine has strengthened its early awards case, one anticipated Denzel Washington contender appears to be out, and much of the field still has to be tested.

How to bet on the Oscars

You don’t have to wait until Oscar night to trade on the awards. Prediction markets open months in advance, with prices moving as films premiere, reviews arrive, nominations are announced and other awards begin to establish the favorites.

Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini are among the best prediction apps where traders can follow entertainment and awards markets. Availability varies by platform and location, so the specific Oscar contracts you can trade will depend on what is currently listed.

Oscar contracts sit within the broader culture and entertainment prediction markets category. Similar markets cover television and reality competitions, including Big Brother.

The basic idea is pretty simple. Think of it like this: if a “Best Picture winner: Oppenheimer” contract is trading at 40 cents, the market is implying roughly a 40% chance that it wins. If you buy 100 of those contracts, you’re paying $40 in total. If Oppenheimer actually wins, each contract pays out $1, so your $40 turns into $100. If it doesn’t win, the contracts expire worthless and you lose your $40. You don’t have to wait until the Oscars either—you can sell your position anytime. So if the price jumps from 40 cents to 55 cents after a strong awards showing, your 100 contracts would now be worth $55, letting you sell early and lock in a $15 profit. Our prediction market fees and calculators can help you estimate trading costs and potential returns before placing a position.

Kalshi and Polymarket offer Oscar-related prediction markets that go well beyond simply picking the eventual Best Picture winner. Traders can take positions on who will be nominated for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Director and supporting categories, as well as eventual winners, with additional markets covering areas such as screenplay, cinematography, visual effects and original score. If you’re new to Kalshi, you can also check our Kalshi promo code article for any current sign-up offers and bonuses before getting started. You can also compare current offers on our prediction market promos page.

Polymarket’s Oscar markets similarly cover nominations and winners. It also lists broader questions, including which film will receive the most nominations. That creates opportunities to trade the race well before the Academy announces its nominees.

Gemini has also expanded into prediction markets, giving users another place to follow event contracts as its market catalog develops. No active 2027 Oscar contracts were listed when we checked on August 16, 2026, and availability can change, so check the current contracts before trading.

For nomination markets in particular, timing matters. A film trading at 35 cents before Venice could move sharply after its premiere, just as a delayed release, poor reviews or a category change can quickly send a candidate lower. The prices on this page track those changes as the Oscar race develops.

Oscar odds FAQ

Who is favored to win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars?

The Odyssey is the early Best Picture favorite. Christopher Nolan’s film has separated itself from the field since its July release and was trading around a 50% chance of winning Best Picture on Kalshi in late July. Dune: Part Three and Digger were among the films trailing it. Kalshi reported on the early Best Picture market after The Odyssey opened in theaters.

The race remains unusually early. Several expected contenders have not premiered, giving the fall festivals plenty of opportunity to change the order.

What are the odds that The Odyssey is nominated for Best Picture?

The Odyssey is already being treated by prediction markets as a near-certain Best Picture nominee. Kalshi traders had put its nomination probability at 99% in late July, compared with 91% for Project Hail Mary and 84% for Dune: Part Three, according to our tracking data.

That is different from its odds of winning Best Picture. A film can have a very high probability of making the field while remaining a much longer shot to ultimately win the award.

How are Oscar odds calculated?

On a prediction market, the price comes from traders buying and selling contracts. A Yes contract trading at 62 cents can be read as roughly a 62% implied probability of that outcome occurring.

Those prices can change throughout awards season. A strong festival premiere may push a film higher; poor reviews or a release delay can have the opposite effect. Later in the season, nominations from the major guilds and results from precursor awards give traders considerably more information to work with.

Why do Oscar odds change?

Oscar odds respond to new information. Early in the season, that can mean a film premiere, reviews, a distribution decision or an actor being moved from a lead category to supporting. Later, the major critics’ awards, Golden Globes, BAFTAs and guild awards provide more evidence about how the race is developing.

The moves can be substantial because Oscar markets begin trading well before Academy voters cast their final ballots.

Can you bet on Oscar nominations?

Yes. Prediction markets offer contracts on nominations as well as winners. For example, Kalshi has markets asking whether individual films will receive a Best Picture nomination, while Polymarket lists nomination markets across Best Picture and acting categories.

This means you can trade on whether a film or performer makes the final field without having to predict who eventually wins the Oscar.

How does DeFi Rate track Oscars odds?

DeFi Rate tracks Oscars odds by aggregating live prices from prediction markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. These platforms update continuously as traders buy and sell contracts tied to specific outcomes, including nominations and winners.

We convert those market prices into implied probabilities and standardize them across platforms so users can compare a single, unified view of the race. The odds on this page are updated as markets move, allowing you to see how sentiment shifts throughout awards season in real time.

When are the 2027 Oscar nominations announced?

The Academy has scheduled nominations for the 99th Academy Awards for January 22, 2027. Nomination markets will settle once the Academy announces the official nominees, subject to each platform’s individual market rules.

The Oscars ceremony is scheduled for March 14, 2027.