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ConstructedStale

The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.

Equal-weight average of two venues, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask.
Kalshi 61.2% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (60.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.65¢).
Polymarket 62.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Average: 61.8%, shown as 62%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning control of the Senate” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket. The last point is today's 3:56 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

Stale

The market-implied chance that Democrats win a House majority (218 seats) in the 2026 election, under each contract's settlement rules.

Equal-weight average of two venues' House-control contracts, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask: Kalshi 91.85% and Polymarket 92.5%. Average: 92.2%, shown as 92%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close. The 7-day change for the House is measured on Kalshi alone. Full history (CSV)

Last tradeStale

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (64.5%) and Polymarket (62.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 64%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 3:56 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

Last tradeStale

The market-implied chance the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +700, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (12.5%) and Polymarket (12.50%). This snapshot has Kalshi's last traded price, not its bid and ask, so both venues are priced at their last trade here.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Los Angeles Rams a 13% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

Last tradeStale

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (66.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 63% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (44.5%) and Polymarket (51.0%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 48% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Stale

The chance Republicans keep both the House and the Senate.

Average of Kalshi's R House + R Senate contract (7.95¢) and Polymarket's matching contract (7.5¢). These two contracts ask the same question, so this is a like-for-like comparison.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Markets give Republicans a 8% chance of keeping both chambers” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.

Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venueStale

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Alaska (Peltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Kalshi's quote is stale, so the price is the midpoint of its bid and ask when last observed, and it isn't offered as a price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 71% chance in the Alaska Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venueStale

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Michigan (El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Kalshi's quote is stale, so the price is the midpoint of its bid and ask when last observed, and it isn't offered as a price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 73% chance in the Michigan Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The market-implied chance the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +700, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (12.5%) and Polymarket (12.50%). This snapshot has Kalshi's last traded price, not its bid and ask, so both venues are priced at their last trade here.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Buffalo Bills a 13% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

Last tradeStale

The market-implied chance the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +1443, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (6.5%) and Polymarket (6.45%). This snapshot has Kalshi's last traded price, not its bid and ask, so both venues are priced at their last trade here.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Baltimore Ravens a 6% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-25 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)