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Constructed

The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.

Equal-weight average of two venues, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask.
Kalshi 85.9% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (85.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.35¢).
Polymarket 88.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Average: 87.2%, shown as 87%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 87% chance of winning control of the Senate” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-11-04 (161 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket. The last point is today's 7:03 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance that Democrats win a House majority (218 seats) in the 2026 election, under each contract's settlement rules.

Equal-weight average of two venues' House-control contracts, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask: Kalshi 97.20% and Polymarket 98.2%. Average: 97.7%, shown as 98%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 98% chance of winning the House” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-11-04 (161 rows). Kalshi daily close. The 7-day change for the House is measured on Kalshi alone. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (80.5%) and Polymarket (79.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Dec. 9 at 80%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-11-09 (162 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 6:15 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +572, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (15.0%), Polymarket (14.15%) and Polymarket US (15.5%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the San Francisco 49ers a 15% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-11-09 (167 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (65.5%) and Polymarket (67.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 67% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi and Polymarket daily close, 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09 (31 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi and Polymarket. The last point is today’s observation.

Last trade

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (33.5%) and Polymarket (32.2%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 33% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi and Polymarket daily close, 2026-10-10 to 2026-11-09 (31 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi and Polymarket. The last point is today’s observation.

The chance Republicans keep both the House and the Senate.

Average of Kalshi's R House + R Senate contract (2.85¢) and Polymarket's matching contract (1.8¢). These two contracts ask the same question, so this is a like-for-like comparison.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Markets give Republicans a 2% chance of keeping both chambers” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the December meeting.

Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venue

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Alaska (Peltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 72% chance in the Alaska Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venue

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Michigan (El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 86% chance in the Michigan Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

The market-implied chance the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +623, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%), Polymarket (14.50%) and Polymarket US (13.5%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Buffalo Bills a 14% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-11-09 (167 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +11665, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.0%), Polymarket (0.55%) and Polymarket US (1.0%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Baltimore Ravens a <1% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-11-09 (167 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)