Prediction Markets Oil Spot Price Predictions

How High Will Oil Get in 2026?

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Updated 52 minutes ago · 1:07 AM PDT

Prediction markets are pricing oil above $100 by year end as a near-certainty, and the spot price is doing a lot of the work for them. WTI crude has already breached $98 a barrel i March, putting the $100 threshold within striking distance and explaining why the higher price brackets have seen the most trading activity on Kalshi. One important caveat before reading too much into the cross-platform data: Kalshi's oil markets resolve against the end-of-year price, while Polymarket prices monthly contracts. They're not answering the same question, and the volume split heavily favors Kalshi's annual markets as a result. Our aggregated cross-platform odds for price of oil in 2026 is updated every 30 minutes with probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Largest Spread

94.00%

$105.01 or above

Consensus Leader

100.0%

$85.01 or above 0.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$1.3M

Momentum Leader

+3.5%

$87 or above 7D change

Probability Over Time

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Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

Cross-Venue Spread

WTI Oil Predictions: Will the spot price reach $150?

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

80O

$85.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

90O

$95.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

8OA

$87 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 61.0%

↑ +3.5%

G 61.0%

Gemini 61.0%

Vol $0 48–74¢

90O

$90.01 or above

Vol $1 Spread 52.5%

Agg 47.5%

↓ -52.5%

K 100.0%

G 47.5%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Gemini 47.5%

Vol $1 34–61¢

10O

$100.01 or above

Vol $100.6K Spread 60.5%

Agg 39.5%

↓ -60.5%

K 100.0%

P 39.5%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 99.8–99.9¢

Polymarket 39.5%

Vol $100.6K 39–40¢

10O

$135.01 or above

Vol $640 Spread —

Agg 35.8%

↓ -7.3%

K 35.8%

Kalshi 35.8%

Vol $640 35.7–35.8¢

9OA

$93 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 31.5%

↑ +3.0%

G 31.5%

Gemini 31.5%

Vol $0 19–44¢

10O

$105.01 or above

Vol $62.3K Spread 94.0%

Agg 23.5%

↓ -76.5%

K 100.0%

P 23.5%

G 6.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 96.1–99.7¢

Polymarket 23.5%

Vol $62.3K 23–24¢

Gemini 6.0%

Vol $0 0–12¢

10O

$180.01 or above

Vol $129 Spread —

Agg 20.2%

↑ +0.7%

K 20.2%

Kalshi 20.2%

Vol $129 19.4–20.9¢

9OA

$96 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 19.5%

↑ +2.5%

G 19.5%

Gemini 19.5%

Vol $0 8–31¢

10O

$110.01 or above

Vol $102.5K Spread 84.5%

Agg 15.5%

↓ -84.5%

K 100.0%

P 15.5%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 96.2–99.8¢

Polymarket 15.5%

Vol $102.5K 15–16¢

9OA

$99 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 12.5%

↑ +2.0%

G 12.5%

Gemini 12.5%

Vol $0 3–22¢

10O

$115.01 or above

Vol $54.1K Spread 47.1%

Agg 12.2%

↓ -49.8%

K 58.0%

P 10.9%

Kalshi 58.0%

Vol $1.5K 56–60¢

Polymarket 10.9%

Vol $52.6K 10.8–11¢

10O

$120.01 or above

Vol $102.3K Spread 50.0%

Agg 10.1%

↓ -51.2%

K 54.0%

P 9.2%

G 4.0%

Kalshi 54.0%

Vol $2.1K 51–57¢

Polymarket 9.2%

Vol $100.1K 9–9.4¢

Gemini 4.0%

Vol $0 0–8¢

1OA

$102 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 8.0%

↓ -4.0%

G 8.0%

Gemini 8.0%

Vol $0 0–16¢

10O

$125.01 or above

Vol $45.8K Spread 40.9%

Agg 7.2%

↓ -45.8%

K 47.5%

P 6.6%

Kalshi 47.5%

Vol $637 47–48¢

Polymarket 6.6%

Vol $45.2K 6.4–6.8¢

10O

$130.01 or above

Vol $104.0K Spread 33.4%

Agg 5.0%

↓ -40.0%

K 38.0%

P 4.6%

Kalshi 38.0%

Vol $1.4K 35–40.9¢

Polymarket 4.6%

Vol $102.5K 4.5–4.6¢

1OA

$108 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

↑ +0.5%

G 5.0%

Gemini 5.0%

Vol $0 0–10¢

1OA

$111 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

↑ +0.5%

G 5.0%

Gemini 5.0%

Vol $0 0–10¢

1OA

$114 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↑ +0.5%

G 4.5%

Gemini 4.5%

Vol $0 0–9¢

1OA

$117 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↑ +0.5%

G 4.5%

Gemini 4.5%

Vol $0 0–9¢

1OA

$123 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

— +0.0%

G 4.5%

Gemini 4.5%

Vol $0 0–9¢

1OA

$126 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.0%

— +0.0%

G 4.0%

Gemini 4.0%

Vol $0 0–8¢

10O

$140.01 or above

Vol $57.8K Spread 28.1%

Agg 3.7%

↓ -35.2%

K 31.5%

P 3.4%

Kalshi 31.5%

Vol $622 31–32¢

Polymarket 3.4%

Vol $57.2K 3.3–3.5¢

10O

$150.01 or above

Vol $49.3K Spread 26.5%

Agg 2.7%

↓ -29.9%

K 28.7%

P 2.2%

Kalshi 28.7%

Vol $1.0K 27.3–30¢

Polymarket 2.2%

Vol $48.3K 2.1–2.2¢

10O

$160.01 or above

Vol $43.6K Spread 24.4%

Agg 1.3%

↓ -27.2%

K 25.6%

P 1.2%

Kalshi 25.6%

Vol $248 25.2–26¢

Polymarket 1.2%

Vol $43.4K 1.1–1.3¢

1OA

$170 or above

Vol $22.6K Spread —

Agg 0.8%

↓ -0.6%

P 0.8%

Polymarket 0.8%

Vol $22.6K 0.7–0.8¢

2OA

$200 or above

Vol $78.3K Spread —

Agg 0.5%

↓ -0.1%

P 0.5%

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $78.3K 0.4–0.6¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
80O $85.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
90O $95.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
8OA $87 or above	61.0% ↑ +3.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 61.0% 48–74¢ Vol $0
90O $90.01 or above	47.5% ↓ -52.5%	52.5%	$1	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini 47.5% 34–61¢ Vol $1
10O $100.01 or above	39.5% ↓ -60.5%	60.5%	$100.6K	Kalshi 100.0% 99.8–99.9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 39.5% 39–40¢ Vol $100.6K	Gemini — —
10O $135.01 or above	35.8% ↓ -7.3%	—	$640	Kalshi 35.8% 35.7–35.8¢ Vol $640	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
9OA $93 or above	31.5% ↑ +3.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 31.5% 19–44¢ Vol $0
10O $105.01 or above	23.5% ↓ -76.5%	94.0%	$62.3K	Kalshi 100.0% 96.1–99.7¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $62.3K	Gemini 6.0% 0–12¢ Vol $0
10O $180.01 or above	20.2% ↑ +0.7%	—	$129	Kalshi 20.2% 19.4–20.9¢ Vol $129	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
9OA $96 or above	19.5% ↑ +2.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 19.5% 8–31¢ Vol $0
10O $110.01 or above	15.5% ↓ -84.5%	84.5%	$102.5K	Kalshi 100.0% 96.2–99.8¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 15.5% 15–16¢ Vol $102.5K	Gemini — —
9OA $99 or above	12.5% ↑ +2.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 12.5% 3–22¢ Vol $0
10O $115.01 or above	12.2% ↓ -49.8%	47.1%	$54.1K	Kalshi 58.0% 56–60¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 10.9% 10.8–11¢ Vol $52.6K	Gemini — —
10O $120.01 or above	10.1% ↓ -51.2%	50.0%	$102.3K	Kalshi 54.0% 51–57¢ Vol $2.1K	Polymarket 9.2% 9–9.4¢ Vol $100.1K	Gemini 4.0% 0–8¢ Vol $0
1OA $102 or above	8.0% ↓ -4.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 8.0% 0–16¢ Vol $0
10O $125.01 or above	7.2% ↓ -45.8%	40.9%	$45.8K	Kalshi 47.5% 47–48¢ Vol $637	Polymarket 6.6% 6.4–6.8¢ Vol $45.2K	Gemini — —
10O $130.01 or above	5.0% ↓ -40.0%	33.4%	$104.0K	Kalshi 38.0% 35–40.9¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket 4.6% 4.5–4.6¢ Vol $102.5K	Gemini — —
1OA $108 or above	5.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 5.0% 0–10¢ Vol $0
1OA $111 or above	5.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 5.0% 0–10¢ Vol $0
1OA $114 or above	4.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 4.5% 0–9¢ Vol $0
1OA $117 or above	4.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 4.5% 0–9¢ Vol $0
1OA $123 or above	4.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 4.5% 0–9¢ Vol $0
1OA $126 or above	4.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 4.0% 0–8¢ Vol $0
10O $140.01 or above	3.7% ↓ -35.2%	28.1%	$57.8K	Kalshi 31.5% 31–32¢ Vol $622	Polymarket 3.4% 3.3–3.5¢ Vol $57.2K	Gemini — —
10O $150.01 or above	2.7% ↓ -29.9%	26.5%	$49.3K	Kalshi 28.7% 27.3–30¢ Vol $1.0K	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.2¢ Vol $48.3K	Gemini — —
10O $160.01 or above	1.3% ↓ -27.2%	24.4%	$43.6K	Kalshi 25.6% 25.2–26¢ Vol $248	Polymarket 1.2% 1.1–1.3¢ Vol $43.4K	Gemini — —
1OA $170 or above	0.8% ↓ -0.6%	—	$22.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.8% 0.7–0.8¢ Vol $22.6K	Gemini — —
2OA $200 or above	0.5% ↓ -0.1%	—	$78.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.5% 0.4–0.6¢ Vol $78.3K	Gemini — —