Prediction Markets Oil Spot Price Predictions

Oil Price Predictions and Odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket

LIVE

Updated 23 minutes ago · 11:26 AM PDT

Prediction markets are pricing oil above $100 by year end as a near-certainty, and the spot price is doing a lot of the work for them. WTI crude has already breached $98 a barrel i March, putting the $100 threshold within striking distance and explaining why the higher price brackets have seen the most trading activity on Kalshi. One important caveat before reading too much into the cross-platform data: Kalshi's oil markets resolve against the end-of-year price, while Polymarket prices monthly contracts. They're not answering the same question, and the volume split heavily favors Kalshi's annual markets as a result. Our aggregated cross-platform odds for price of oil in 2026 is updated every 30 minutes with probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Largest Spread

36.05%

$115.01 or above

Current Favorite

100.0%

$100.01 or above 0.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$37.9K

Momentum Leader

0.0%

$100.01 or above 30D change

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

Loading lines...

Oil Price Predictions: Probability of Reaching $150/bbl

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

10O

$100.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 12.1–100¢

10O

$105.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

10O

$110.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

80O

$85.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

—

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 —

90O

$90.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

—

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 —

90O

$95.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 —

9OA

$99 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 36.5%

—

G 36.5%

Gemini 36.5%

Vol $0 —

10O

$115.01 or above

Vol $7.3K Spread 36.1%

Agg 36.1%

↓ -28.5%

K 36.1%

P 0.0%

1OA

$114 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 30.0%

—

G 30.0%

Gemini 30.0%

Vol $0 —

9OA

$96 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 30.0%

—

G 30.0%

Gemini 30.0%

Vol $0 —

8OA

$87 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 29.5%

—

G 29.5%

Gemini 29.5%

Vol $0 —

10O

$120.01 or above

Vol $3.0K Spread 29.3%

Agg 29.3%

↓ -30.1%

K 29.3%

P 0.0%

10O

$125.01 or above

Vol $1.2K Spread 27.1%

Agg 27.1%

↓ -23.7%

K 27.1%

P 0.0%

10O

$130.01 or above

Vol $1.4K Spread 23.5%

Agg 23.5%

↓ -20.6%

K 23.5%

P 0.0%

10O

$135.01 or above

Vol $3.2K Spread —

Agg 22.2%

↓ -18.2%

K 22.2%

Kalshi 22.2%

Vol $3.2K 21.4–22.9¢

10O

$140.01 or above

Vol $4.9K Spread 18.9%

Agg 18.9%

↓ -15.6%

K 18.9%

P 0.0%

10O

$150.01 or above

Vol $6.1K Spread 16.9%

Agg 16.9%

↓ -14.4%

K 16.9%

P 0.0%

1OA

$108 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 15.0%

—

G 15.0%

Gemini 15.0%

Vol $0 —

10O

$160.01 or above

Vol $4.1K Spread 14.9%

Agg 14.9%

↓ -10.2%

K 14.9%

P 0.0%

10O

$180.01 or above

Vol $6.7K Spread —

Agg 13.0%

↓ -6.1%

K 13.0%

Kalshi 13.0%

Vol $6.7K 12.3–13.6¢

1OA

$111 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 12.0%

—

G 12.0%

Gemini 12.0%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$123 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 7.5%

—

G 7.5%

Gemini 7.5%

Vol $0 —

9OA

$93 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

—

G 6.5%

Gemini 6.5%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$117 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

—

G 5.0%

Gemini 5.0%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$126 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.0%

—

G 1.0%

Gemini 1.0%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$102 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

—

G 0.0%

Gemini 0.0%

Vol $0 —

1OA

$170 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

P 0.0%

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $0 0.1¢

2OA

$200 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 0.0%

— +0.0%

P 0.0%

Polymarket 0.0%

Vol $0 0.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
10O $100.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 12.1–100¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $105.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0
10O $110.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
80O $85.01 or above	100.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
90O $90.01 or above	100.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — — Vol $0
90O $95.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% — Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
9OA $99 or above	36.5% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 36.5% — Vol $0
10O $115.01 or above	36.1% ↓ -28.5%	36.1%	$7.3K	Kalshi 36.1% 35.6–36.5¢ Vol $7.3K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
1OA $114 or above	30.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 30.0% — Vol $0
9OA $96 or above	30.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 30.0% — Vol $0
8OA $87 or above	29.5% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 29.5% — Vol $0
10O $120.01 or above	29.3% ↓ -30.1%	29.3%	$3.0K	Kalshi 29.3% 29.1–29.5¢ Vol $3.0K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — — Vol $0
10O $125.01 or above	27.1% ↓ -23.7%	27.1%	$1.2K	Kalshi 27.1% 26.7–27.5¢ Vol $1.2K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $130.01 or above	23.5% ↓ -20.6%	23.5%	$1.4K	Kalshi 23.5% 23.2–23.8¢ Vol $1.4K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $135.01 or above	22.2% ↓ -18.2%	—	$3.2K	Kalshi 22.2% 21.4–22.9¢ Vol $3.2K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
10O $140.01 or above	18.9% ↓ -15.6%	18.9%	$4.9K	Kalshi 18.9% 18.7–19¢ Vol $4.9K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $150.01 or above	16.9% ↓ -14.4%	16.9%	$6.1K	Kalshi 16.9% 16.4–17.3¢ Vol $6.1K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
1OA $108 or above	15.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 15.0% — Vol $0
10O $160.01 or above	14.9% ↓ -10.2%	14.9%	$4.1K	Kalshi 14.9% 14.3–15.4¢ Vol $4.1K	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
10O $180.01 or above	13.0% ↓ -6.1%	—	$6.7K	Kalshi 13.0% 12.3–13.6¢ Vol $6.7K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
1OA $111 or above	12.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 12.0% — Vol $0
1OA $123 or above	7.5% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 7.5% — Vol $0
9OA $93 or above	6.5% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 6.5% — Vol $0
1OA $117 or above	5.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 5.0% — Vol $0
1OA $126 or above	1.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 1.0% — Vol $0
1OA $102 or above	0.0% —	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 0.0% — Vol $0
1OA $170 or above	0.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —
2OA $200 or above	0.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.0% 0.1¢ Vol $0	Gemini — —