Prediction Markets Oil Spot Price Predictions

Oil Price Predictions: How High Will It Get?

LIVE

Updated 24 minutes ago · 5:25 AM PDT

Prediction markets are pricing oil above $100 by year end as a near-certainty, and the spot price is doing a lot of the work for them. WTI crude has already breached $98 a barrel i March, putting the $100 threshold within striking distance and explaining why the higher price brackets have seen the most trading activity on Kalshi. One important caveat before reading too much into the cross-platform data: Kalshi's oil markets resolve against the end-of-year price, while Polymarket prices monthly contracts. They're not answering the same question, and the volume split heavily favors Kalshi's annual markets as a result. Our aggregated cross-platform odds for price of oil in 2026 is updated every 30 minutes with probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Largest Spread

93.00%

$105.01 or above

Consensus Leader

100.0%

$85.01 or above 0.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$624.4K

Momentum Leader

+44.0%

$93 or above 30D change

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

Gemini

Cross-Venue Spread

Oil Price Predictions: Probability of Reaching $150/bbl

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

80O

$85.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

90O

$95.01 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

K 100.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

90O

$90.01 or above

Vol $76 Spread 16.5%

Agg 83.5%

↓ -16.5%

K 100.0%

G 83.5%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 0–100¢

Gemini 83.5%

Vol $76 79–88¢

9OA

$93 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 72.5%

↑ +44.0%

G 72.5%

Gemini 72.5%

Vol $0 61–84¢

10O

$100.01 or above

Vol $29.4K Spread 38.0%

Agg 62.0%

↓ -26.8%

K 100.0%

P 62.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 99.8–99.9¢

Polymarket 62.0%

Vol $29.4K 61–63¢

10O

$135.01 or above

Vol $4.3K Spread —

Agg 52.1%

↑ +8.6%

K 52.1%

Kalshi 52.1%

Vol $4.3K 49.2–55¢

9OA

$96 or above

Vol $12 Spread —

Agg 50.0%

↑ +33.0%

G 50.0%

Gemini 50.0%

Vol $12 37–63¢

8OA

$87 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 43.5%

↓ -14.0%

G 43.5%

Gemini 43.5%

Vol $0 87–0¢

10O

$105.01 or above

Vol $24.1K Spread 93.0%

Agg 33.5%

↓ -44.0%

K 100.0%

P 33.5%

G 7.0%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 96.1–99.7¢

Polymarket 33.5%

Vol $24.1K 33–34¢

Gemini 7.0%

Vol $0 0–14¢

9OA

$99 or above

Vol $95 Spread —

Agg 30.5%

↑ +20.0%

G 30.5%

Gemini 30.5%

Vol $95 19–42¢

10O

$180.01 or above

Vol $396 Spread —

Agg 20.3%

↑ +1.8%

K 20.3%

Kalshi 20.3%

Vol $396 19.6–21¢

10O

$110.01 or above

Vol $27.0K Spread 82.5%

Agg 17.5%

↓ -55.0%

K 100.0%

P 17.5%

Kalshi 100.0%

Vol $0 96.2–99.8¢

Polymarket 17.5%

Vol $27.0K 17–18¢

1OA

$102 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 14.0%

↑ +2.0%

G 14.0%

Gemini 14.0%

Vol $0 4–24¢

10O

$115.01 or above

Vol $20.7K Spread 54.7%

Agg 11.7%

↓ -52.1%

K 64.1%

P 9.5%

Kalshi 64.1%

Vol $818 62.3–66¢

Polymarket 9.5%

Vol $19.9K 9.2–9.8¢

10O

$120.01 or above

Vol $128.3K Spread 56.6%

Agg 8.1%

↓ -55.3%

K 60.6%

P 7.6%

G 4.0%

Kalshi 60.6%

Vol $1.0K 60.5–60.6¢

Polymarket 7.6%

Vol $127.3K 7.6–7.7¢

Gemini 4.0%

Vol $0 0–8¢

1OA

$108 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

↑ +0.5%

G 5.0%

Gemini 5.0%

Vol $0 0–10¢

1OA

$111 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 5.0%

↑ +0.5%

G 5.0%

Gemini 5.0%

Vol $0 0–10¢

1OA

$114 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↑ +0.5%

G 4.5%

Gemini 4.5%

Vol $0 0–9¢

1OA

$117 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↑ +0.5%

G 4.5%

Gemini 4.5%

Vol $0 0–9¢

1OA

$123 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

— +0.0%

G 4.5%

Gemini 4.5%

Vol $0 0–9¢

1OA

$126 or above

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↑ +0.5%

G 4.5%

Gemini 4.5%

Vol $0 0–9¢

10O

$150.01 or above

Vol $14.9K Spread 29.3%

Agg 3.8%

↓ -26.9%

K 30.2%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 30.2%

Vol $1.5K 29.3–31.1¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $13.4K 0.8–0.9¢

10O

$125.01 or above

Vol $32.6K Spread 53.7%

Agg 3.3%

↓ -52.2%

K 56.7%

P 2.9%

Kalshi 56.7%

Vol $210 54.3–59¢

Polymarket 2.9%

Vol $32.3K 2.7–3.2¢

10O

$140.01 or above

Vol $21.0K Spread 42.8%

Agg 3.0%

↓ -34.5%

K 43.7%

P 0.9%

Kalshi 43.7%

Vol $1.0K 43–44.3¢

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $19.9K 0.8–0.9¢

10O

$130.01 or above

Vol $65.3K Spread 52.5%

Agg 2.8%

↓ -48.2%

K 54.1%

P 1.6%

Kalshi 54.1%

Vol $1.6K 52.3–55.8¢

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $63.7K 1.5–1.6¢

10O

$160.01 or above

Vol $33.3K Spread 27.0%

Agg 0.7%

↓ -23.3%

K 27.6%

P 0.5%

Kalshi 27.6%

Vol $235 26.4–28.7¢

Polymarket 0.5%

Vol $33.1K 0.5–0.6¢

1OA

$170 or above

Vol $22.3K Spread —

Agg 0.3%

↓ -1.1%

P 0.3%

Polymarket 0.3%

Vol $22.3K 0.2–0.3¢

2OA

$200 or above

Vol $122.6K Spread —

Agg 0.2%

↓ -0.5%

P 0.2%

Polymarket 0.2%

Vol $122.6K 0.1–0.2¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gemini
80O $85.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
90O $95.01 or above	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
90O $90.01 or above	83.5% ↓ -16.5%	16.5%	$76	Kalshi 100.0% 0–100¢ Vol $0	Polymarket — —	Gemini 83.5% 79–88¢ Vol $76
9OA $93 or above	72.5% ↑ +44.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 72.5% 61–84¢ Vol $0
10O $100.01 or above	62.0% ↓ -26.8%	38.0%	$29.4K	Kalshi 100.0% 99.8–99.9¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 62.0% 61–63¢ Vol $29.4K	Gemini — —
10O $135.01 or above	52.1% ↑ +8.6%	—	$4.3K	Kalshi 52.1% 49.2–55¢ Vol $4.3K	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
9OA $96 or above	50.0% ↑ +33.0%	—	$12	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 50.0% 37–63¢ Vol $12
8OA $87 or above	43.5% ↓ -14.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 43.5% 87–0¢ Vol $0
10O $105.01 or above	33.5% ↓ -44.0%	93.0%	$24.1K	Kalshi 100.0% 96.1–99.7¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 33.5% 33–34¢ Vol $24.1K	Gemini 7.0% 0–14¢ Vol $0
9OA $99 or above	30.5% ↑ +20.0%	—	$95	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 30.5% 19–42¢ Vol $95
10O $180.01 or above	20.3% ↑ +1.8%	—	$396	Kalshi 20.3% 19.6–21¢ Vol $396	Polymarket — —	Gemini — —
10O $110.01 or above	17.5% ↓ -55.0%	82.5%	$27.0K	Kalshi 100.0% 96.2–99.8¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $27.0K	Gemini — —
1OA $102 or above	14.0% ↑ +2.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 14.0% 4–24¢ Vol $0
10O $115.01 or above	11.7% ↓ -52.1%	54.7%	$20.7K	Kalshi 64.1% 62.3–66¢ Vol $818	Polymarket 9.5% 9.2–9.8¢ Vol $19.9K	Gemini — —
10O $120.01 or above	8.1% ↓ -55.3%	56.6%	$128.3K	Kalshi 60.6% 60.5–60.6¢ Vol $1.0K	Polymarket 7.6% 7.6–7.7¢ Vol $127.3K	Gemini 4.0% 0–8¢ Vol $0
1OA $108 or above	5.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 5.0% 0–10¢ Vol $0
1OA $111 or above	5.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 5.0% 0–10¢ Vol $0
1OA $114 or above	4.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 4.5% 0–9¢ Vol $0
1OA $117 or above	4.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 4.5% 0–9¢ Vol $0
1OA $123 or above	4.5% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 4.5% 0–9¢ Vol $0
1OA $126 or above	4.5% ↑ +0.5%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket — —	Gemini 4.5% 0–9¢ Vol $0
10O $150.01 or above	3.8% ↓ -26.9%	29.3%	$14.9K	Kalshi 30.2% 29.3–31.1¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $13.4K	Gemini — —
10O $125.01 or above	3.3% ↓ -52.2%	53.7%	$32.6K	Kalshi 56.7% 54.3–59¢ Vol $210	Polymarket 2.9% 2.7–3.2¢ Vol $32.3K	Gemini — —
10O $140.01 or above	3.0% ↓ -34.5%	42.8%	$21.0K	Kalshi 43.7% 43–44.3¢ Vol $1.0K	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–0.9¢ Vol $19.9K	Gemini — —
10O $130.01 or above	2.8% ↓ -48.2%	52.5%	$65.3K	Kalshi 54.1% 52.3–55.8¢ Vol $1.6K	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $63.7K	Gemini — —
10O $160.01 or above	0.7% ↓ -23.3%	27.0%	$33.3K	Kalshi 27.6% 26.4–28.7¢ Vol $235	Polymarket 0.5% 0.5–0.6¢ Vol $33.1K	Gemini — —
1OA $170 or above	0.3% ↓ -1.1%	—	$22.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.3% 0.2–0.3¢ Vol $22.3K	Gemini — —
2OA $200 or above	0.2% ↓ -0.5%	—	$122.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.2% 0.1–0.2¢ Vol $122.6K	Gemini — —