Oil Price Predictions and Odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket

Prediction markets are pricing oil above $100 by year end as a near-certainty, and the spot price is doing a lot of the work for them. WTI crude has already breached $98 a barrel i March, putting the $100 threshold within striking distance and explaining why the higher price brackets have seen the most trading activity on Kalshi. One important caveat before reading too much into the cross-platform data: Kalshi's oil markets resolve against the end-of-year price, while Polymarket prices monthly contracts. They're not answering the same question, and the volume split heavily favors Kalshi's annual markets as a result. Our aggregated cross-platform odds for price of oil in 2026 is updated every 30 minutes with probability synthesis from Kalshi and Polymarket.