The snapshot from Oct 5, 11:55 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-06T0027/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 6, 12:27 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
34%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,602.2) at the end of the window closing 12:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 34% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT060030-30 | direct contract | 33.0¢ | 34.0¢ | 33.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
91%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,702.4) at the end of the window closing 12:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 68% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 91% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT060030-30 | direct contract | 91.1¢ | 91.6¢ | 91.35¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 68.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4998) at the end of the window closing 12:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 82% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT060030-30 | direct contract | 96.4¢ | 96.6¢ | 96.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 81.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.09474) at the end of the window closing 12:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 77% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT060030-30 | direct contract | 96.9¢ | 97.0¢ | 96.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 77.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
99%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.136) at the end of the window closing 12:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 80% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT060030-30 | direct contract | 98.7¢ | 98.8¢ | 98.75¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 80.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
12%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.2497) at the end of the window closing 12:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 12% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT060030-30 | direct contract | 11.0¢ | 13.0¢ | 12.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
1%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.6831) at the end of the window closing 12:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 4% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT060030-30 | direct contract | 1.1¢ | 1.3¢ | 1.20¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 4.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
3%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,343.0754) at the end of the window closing 12:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 3% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT060030-30 | direct contract | 3.0¢ | 3.6¢ | 3.30¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
16%The chance BNB settles above its target price (782.03) at the end of the window closing 12:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 26% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 16% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT060030-30 | direct contract | 14.0¢ | 18.0¢ | 16.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 26.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
23%Crypto contracts made up 23.4% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $181 million of the $774 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 22% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).