Crypto marketsWhere every number comes from

The contracts, rate or quote types and calculation behind each figure on the Crypto markets page. Data observed Oct 4, 10:18 AM ET; this page updates with it. For a frozen copy, use the snapshot.

MethodologyHow DeFi Rate prices, averages and labels figures

Datasets (CSV)15-minute markets, window closing 10:30 AM ET
Every figure and contract

Figures11 records below, each with its own link (#id)

Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up

33%

The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,199.51) at the end of the window closing 10:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 33% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBTC15M-26OCT041030-30	direct contract	32.0¢	33.0¢	32.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 7s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			52.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up

29%

The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,696.34) at the end of the window closing 10:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXETH15M-26OCT041030-30	direct contract	28.0¢	30.0¢	29.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 7s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			52.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

XRP finishes the 15-minute window up

49%

The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5001) at the end of the window closing 10:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 49% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXXRP15M-26OCT041030-30	direct contract	48.0¢	49.0¢	48.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 22s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			47.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up

71%

The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0934864) at the end of the window closing 10:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 71% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXDOGE15M-26OCT041030-30	direct contract	70.0¢	71.0¢	70.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			49.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Solana finishes the 15-minute window up

19%

The chance Solana settles above its target price (121.6618) at the end of the window closing 10:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 16% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 19% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXSOL15M-26OCT041030-30	direct contract	18.0¢	19.0¢	18.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 7s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			16.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up

30%

Single venue

The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.8668) at the end of the window closing 10:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 30% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXNEAR15M-26OCT041030-30	direct contract	29.0¢	31.0¢	30.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 7s old	Contract ↗

Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up

37%

The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (89.9761) at the end of the window closing 10:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 37% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXHYPE15M-26OCT041030-30	direct contract	35.0¢	38.0¢	36.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			47.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up

63%

Single venue

The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,324.1827) at the end of the window closing 10:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 63% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXZEC15M-26OCT041030-30	direct contract	59.0¢	66.0¢	62.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗

BNB finishes the 15-minute window up

18%

The chance BNB settles above its target price (787.8) at the end of the window closing 10:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 18% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBNB15M-26OCT041030-30	direct contract	17.0¢	19.0¢	18.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			52.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume

14%

Crypto contracts made up 14.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 4, 2026: about $152 million of the $1086 million traded.

Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.

Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days

$4.5B

Dollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 4 to Oct 3, 2026, up 20% on the prior 30 days.

Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.