Crypto marketsWhere every number comes from
The contracts, rate or quote types and calculation behind each figure on the Crypto markets page. Data observed Oct 8, 11:23 PM ET; this page updates with it. For a frozen copy, use the snapshot.
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
95%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (82,016.53) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 66% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT082330-30 | direct contract | 94.9¢ | 95.0¢ | 94.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 54s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 66.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
95%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,483.33) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 59% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT082330-30 | direct contract | 95.3¢ | 95.4¢ | 95.35¢ | midpoint | fresh · 54s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 59.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
85%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.3915) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 76% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT082330-30 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 84.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 75.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0846742) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 97% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT082330-30 | direct contract | 96.6¢ | 97.1¢ | 96.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 97.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
95%The chance Solana settles above its target price (109.8793) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 59% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT082330-30 | direct contract | 94.9¢ | 95.0¢ | 94.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 59.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
96%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.6902) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 96% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT082330-30 | direct contract | 96.4¢ | 96.5¢ | 96.45¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (84.9594) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 90% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT082330-30 | direct contract | 96.6¢ | 97.5¢ | 97.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 90.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
81%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,217.9465) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 81% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT082330-30 | direct contract | 81.00¢ | last trade | stale · 79s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
97%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (737.69) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT082330-30 | direct contract | 97.00¢ | last trade | stale · 86s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 83.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
26%Crypto contracts made up 25.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 8, 2026: about $181 million of the $704 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.7BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 9 to Oct 8, 2026, up 23% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).