The snapshot from Oct 6, 12:27 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-06T0111/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 6, 1:11 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
96%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,598.49) at the end of the window closing 1:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 30% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 96% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT060115-15 | direct contract | 95.8¢ | 95.9¢ | 95.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 23s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 30.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
98%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,701.61) at the end of the window closing 1:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 96% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 98% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT060115-15 | direct contract | 97.5¢ | 97.6¢ | 97.55¢ | midpoint | fresh · 23s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 96.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4994) at the end of the window closing 1:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 99% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT060115-15 | direct contract | 99.4¢ | 99.7¢ | 99.55¢ | midpoint | fresh · 23s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 99.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
99%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0948067) at the end of the window closing 1:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 98% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT060115-15 | direct contract | 98.7¢ | 99.2¢ | 98.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 23s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 97.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
95%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.0558) at the end of the window closing 1:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 42% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT060115-15 | direct contract | 94.6¢ | 95.3¢ | 94.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 23s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 41.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.2402) at the end of the window closing 1:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT060115-15 | direct contract | 99.3¢ | 99.4¢ | 99.35¢ | midpoint | fresh · 23s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
95%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.3216) at the end of the window closing 1:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 80% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT060115-15 | direct contract | 94.4¢ | 96.1¢ | 95.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 80.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
97%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,337.9646) at the end of the window closing 1:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT060115-15 | direct contract | 96.5¢ | 98.4¢ | 97.45¢ | midpoint | fresh · 23s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
99%The chance BNB settles above its target price (781.23) at the end of the window closing 1:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 98% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT060115-15 | direct contract | 98.5¢ | 99.3¢ | 98.90¢ | midpoint | fresh · 23s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 98.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
23%Crypto contracts made up 23.3% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 6, 2026: about $179 million of the $769 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 22% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).