The snapshot from Oct 5, 11:26 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T2355/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 11:55 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
85%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,452.04) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 88% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT060000-00 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 84.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 6s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 88.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
94%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,696.48) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 88% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 94% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT060000-00 | direct contract | 93.9¢ | 94.1¢ | 94.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 6s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 87.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
92%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.497) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 74% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 92% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT060000-00 | direct contract | 91.7¢ | 92.4¢ | 92.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 9s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 74.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
98%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.094458) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 91% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 98% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT060000-00 | direct contract | 97.6¢ | 97.8¢ | 97.70¢ | midpoint | fresh · 6s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 91.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
98%The chance Solana settles above its target price (119.8198) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 96% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 98% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT060000-00 | direct contract | 97.9¢ | 98.0¢ | 97.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 6s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 95.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
86%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.2478) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 86% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT060000-00 | direct contract | 85.0¢ | 87.0¢ | 86.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 6s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
33%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.3593) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 56% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 33% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT060000-00 | direct contract | 30.0¢ | 35.0¢ | 32.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 6s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 55.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
97%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,336.5348) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT060000-00 | direct contract | 96.0¢ | 97.0¢ | 96.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 6s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
85%The chance BNB settles above its target price (781.15) at the end of the window closing 12:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 76% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT060000-00 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 84.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 6s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 76.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
21%Crypto contracts made up 21.3% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $181 million of the $852 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 22% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).