The snapshot from Oct 5, 10:58 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T2326/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 11:26 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
32%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,519.28) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 70% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 32% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT052330-30 | direct contract | 31.0¢ | 32.0¢ | 31.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 16s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 69.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
21%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,700.01) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 62% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 21% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT052330-30 | direct contract | 20.0¢ | 21.0¢ | 20.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 15s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 62.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
81%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4978) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 80% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 81% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT052330-30 | direct contract | 80.0¢ | 81.0¢ | 80.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 79.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
91%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0945834) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 83% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 91% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT052330-30 | direct contract | 90.5¢ | 91.6¢ | 91.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 83.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
85%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.1613) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 74% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT052330-30 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 84.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 74.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
33%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.2641) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 33% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT052330-30 | direct contract | 31.0¢ | 35.0¢ | 33.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
5%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.7214) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 16% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 5% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT052330-30 | direct contract | 4.1¢ | 5.0¢ | 4.55¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 16.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
68%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,339.8572) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 68% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT052330-30 | direct contract | 67.0¢ | 68.0¢ | 67.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
91%The chance BNB settles above its target price (781.83) at the end of the window closing 11:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 90% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 91% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT052330-30 | direct contract | 90.4¢ | 90.8¢ | 90.60¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 90.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
21%Crypto contracts made up 21.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $181 million of the $862 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 22% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).