The snapshot from Oct 5, 10:23 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T2258/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 10:58 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
<1%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,610.62) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 10% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a <1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT052300-00 | direct contract | 0.6¢ | 0.7¢ | 0.65¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 10.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
1%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,704.36) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 4% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT052300-00 | direct contract | 1.0¢ | 1.1¢ | 1.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 4.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
1%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4986) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 18% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT052300-00 | direct contract | 1.0¢ | 1.1¢ | 1.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 17.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
<1%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0947481) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 3% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a <1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT052300-00 | direct contract | 0.5¢ | 0.7¢ | 0.60¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 3.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
<1%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.4498) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 8% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a <1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT052300-00 | direct contract | 0.2¢ | 0.3¢ | 0.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 8.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
<1%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.3165) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a <1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT052300-00 | direct contract | 0.2¢ | 0.3¢ | 0.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
21%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.991) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 21% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT052300-00 | direct contract | 20.0¢ | 21.0¢ | 20.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
4%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,342.9233) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 4% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT052300-00 | direct contract | 3.5¢ | 4.1¢ | 3.80¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
3%The chance BNB settles above its target price (781.63) at the end of the window closing 11:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 17% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 3% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT052300-00 | direct contract | 2.3¢ | 4.1¢ | 3.20¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 17.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
21%Crypto contracts made up 21.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $181 million of the $862 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).