The snapshot from Oct 5, 9:45 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T2223/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 10:23 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,466.61) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 62% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT052230-30 | direct contract | 96.9¢ | 97.0¢ | 96.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 11s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 62.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
99%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,702.37) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 72% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT052230-30 | direct contract | 98.7¢ | 99.0¢ | 98.85¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 72.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4986) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 42% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT052230-30 | direct contract | 96.7¢ | 96.8¢ | 96.75¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 41.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0947275) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 82% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT052230-30 | direct contract | 96.6¢ | 96.7¢ | 96.65¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 82.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
98%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.41) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 69% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 98% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT052230-30 | direct contract | 97.5¢ | 97.7¢ | 97.60¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 69.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
76%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.3036) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 76% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT052230-30 | direct contract | 74.0¢ | 77.0¢ | 75.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
96%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (94.1049) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 64% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 96% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT052230-30 | direct contract | 96.2¢ | 96.4¢ | 96.30¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 64.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
72%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,344.2845) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 72% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT052230-30 | direct contract | 70.0¢ | 74.0¢ | 72.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%The chance BNB settles above its target price (780.49) at the end of the window closing 10:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 94% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT052230-30 | direct contract | 99.1¢ | 99.3¢ | 99.20¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 93.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
22%Crypto contracts made up 21.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $182 million of the $843 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).