The snapshot from Oct 5, 9:04 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T2145/.

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Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 9:45 PM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedOct 5, 9:45 PM ET

Live page updatedOct 5, 9:45 PM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T2145

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
15-minute markets, window closing 10:00 PM ET (CSV)

Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up

51%

The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,676.72) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 51% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBTC15M-26OCT052200-00	direct contract	50.0¢	51.0¢	50.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 12s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			50.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up

43%

The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,708.68) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXETH15M-26OCT052200-00	direct contract	42.0¢	43.0¢	42.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 12s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			52.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

XRP finishes the 15-minute window up

54%

The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5033) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 54% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXXRP15M-26OCT052200-00	direct contract	53.0¢	54.0¢	53.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 12s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			50.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up

46%

The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0949785) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 46% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXDOGE15M-26OCT052200-00	direct contract	45.0¢	46.0¢	45.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 10s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			52.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Solana finishes the 15-minute window up

44%

The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.5777) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 44% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXSOL15M-26OCT052200-00	direct contract	43.0¢	44.0¢	43.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 10s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			51.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up

44%

Single venue

The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.248) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 44% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXNEAR15M-26OCT052200-00	direct contract	43.0¢	44.0¢	43.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 10s old	Contract ↗

Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up

50%

The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (94.3052) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 50% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXHYPE15M-26OCT052200-00	direct contract	48.0¢	51.0¢	49.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 8s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			50.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up

43%

Single venue

The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,345.6791) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXZEC15M-26OCT052200-00	direct contract	41.0¢	45.0¢	43.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 10s old	Contract ↗

BNB finishes the 15-minute window up

59%

The chance BNB settles above its target price (783.19) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 51% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 59% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBNB15M-26OCT052200-00	direct contract	58.0¢	59.0¢	58.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 8s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			51.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume

22%

Crypto contracts made up 21.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $184 million of the $840 million traded.

Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.

Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days

$4.6B

Dollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.

Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.