The snapshot from Oct 5, 8:31 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T2104/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 9:04 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
89%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,861.4) at the end of the window closing 9:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 89% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT052115-15 | direct contract | 88.0¢ | 89.0¢ | 88.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
55%Last trade
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,717.89) at the end of the window closing 9:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 55% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT052115-15 | direct contract | 55.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 5s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 89.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
85%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5087) at the end of the window closing 9:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 70% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT052115-15 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 84.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 69.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
86%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0952864) at the end of the window closing 9:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 86% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 86% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT052115-15 | direct contract | 85.0¢ | 86.0¢ | 85.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 86.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
61%Last trade
The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.9693) at the end of the window closing 9:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 61% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT052115-15 | direct contract | 61.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 65.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
60%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.2928) at the end of the window closing 9:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 60% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT052115-15 | direct contract | 59.0¢ | 61.0¢ | 60.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
63%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (94.7971) at the end of the window closing 9:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 60% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 63% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT052115-15 | direct contract | 62.0¢ | 64.0¢ | 63.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 60.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
84%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,352.971) at the end of the window closing 9:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 84% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT052115-15 | direct contract | 83.0¢ | 84.0¢ | 83.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
57%Last trade
The chance BNB settles above its target price (785.98) at the end of the window closing 9:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 57% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT052115-15 | direct contract | 57.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 65.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
22%Crypto contracts made up 21.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $184 million of the $840 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).