The snapshot from Oct 5, 6:25 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1905/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 7:05 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
92%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,925.79) at the end of the window closing 7:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 74% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 92% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051915-15 | direct contract | 91.6¢ | 91.7¢ | 91.65¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 74.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
92%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,715.72) at the end of the window closing 7:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 92% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051915-15 | direct contract | 92.4¢ | 92.5¢ | 92.45¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
85%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5108) at the end of the window closing 7:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 82% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051915-15 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 84.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 82.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
77%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0956643) at the end of the window closing 7:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 45% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 77% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051915-15 | direct contract | 76.0¢ | 77.0¢ | 76.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 45.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
57%The chance Solana settles above its target price (121.0112) at the end of the window closing 7:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 76% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 57% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051915-15 | direct contract | 56.0¢ | 57.0¢ | 56.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 75.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
29%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.2885) at the end of the window closing 7:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051915-15 | direct contract | 28.0¢ | 30.0¢ | 29.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
44%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (94.5326) at the end of the window closing 7:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 44% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051915-15 | direct contract | 43.0¢ | 45.0¢ | 44.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
79%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,338.4855) at the end of the window closing 7:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 79% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051915-15 | direct contract | 77.0¢ | 80.0¢ | 78.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
90%The chance BNB settles above its target price (788.04) at the end of the window closing 7:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 74% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 90% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051915-15 | direct contract | 89.0¢ | 90.1¢ | 89.55¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 74.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
21%Crypto contracts made up 20.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $184 million of the $891 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).