The snapshot from Oct 5, 7:05 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1936/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 7:36 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
35%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,917.79) at the end of the window closing 7:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 32% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 35% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051945-45 | direct contract | 34.0¢ | 35.0¢ | 34.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 31.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
20%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,715.65) at the end of the window closing 7:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 36% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 20% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051945-45 | direct contract | 19.0¢ | 20.0¢ | 19.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 35.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
11%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5103) at the end of the window closing 7:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 12% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 11% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051945-45 | direct contract | 10.0¢ | 11.0¢ | 10.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 11.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
14%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0955533) at the end of the window closing 7:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 29% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 14% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051945-45 | direct contract | 13.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 14.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 29.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
33%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.8158) at the end of the window closing 7:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 27% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 33% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051945-45 | direct contract | 32.0¢ | 33.0¢ | 32.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 27.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
15%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.1737) at the end of the window closing 7:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 15% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051945-45 | direct contract | 14.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 14.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
8%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (94.1348) at the end of the window closing 7:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 36% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 8% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051945-45 | direct contract | 8.4¢ | 8.5¢ | 8.45¢ | midpoint | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 35.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
5%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,337.0185) at the end of the window closing 7:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 5% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051945-45 | direct contract | 4.6¢ | 6.1¢ | 5.35¢ | midpoint | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
11%The chance BNB settles above its target price (788.08) at the end of the window closing 7:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 20% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 11% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051945-45 | direct contract | 10.0¢ | 11.0¢ | 10.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 20.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
21%Crypto contracts made up 20.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $184 million of the $891 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).