The snapshot from Oct 5, 5:52 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1825/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 6:25 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
39%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,962.14) at the end of the window closing 6:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 74% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 39% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051830-30 | direct contract | 38.0¢ | 39.0¢ | 38.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 74.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
14%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,719.04) at the end of the window closing 6:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 14% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 14% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051830-30 | direct contract | 13.0¢ | 14.0¢ | 13.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 13.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
21%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5146) at the end of the window closing 6:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 36% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 21% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051830-30 | direct contract | 20.0¢ | 21.0¢ | 20.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 35.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
63%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0959874) at the end of the window closing 6:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 55% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 63% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051830-30 | direct contract | 62.0¢ | 64.0¢ | 63.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 55.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
36%The chance Solana settles above its target price (121.5132) at the end of the window closing 6:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 34% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 36% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051830-30 | direct contract | 35.0¢ | 36.0¢ | 35.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 34.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
88%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.2609) at the end of the window closing 6:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 88% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051830-30 | direct contract | 86.0¢ | 89.0¢ | 87.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
85%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (95.0998) at the end of the window closing 6:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 55% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051830-30 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 84.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 55.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
4%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,352.0266) at the end of the window closing 6:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 4% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051830-30 | direct contract | 3.3¢ | 4.9¢ | 4.10¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
94%The chance BNB settles above its target price (788.21) at the end of the window closing 6:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 92% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 94% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051830-30 | direct contract | 94.0¢ | 94.6¢ | 94.30¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 91.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
20%Crypto contracts made up 20.1% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $184 million of the $913 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).