The snapshot from Oct 5, 5:45 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-06T1953/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 6, 7:53 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
74%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,556.64) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 76% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 74% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT062000-00 | direct contract | 73.0¢ | 74.0¢ | 73.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 75.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
62%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,699) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 68% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 62% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT062000-00 | direct contract | 61.0¢ | 62.0¢ | 61.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 67.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
83%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4978) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 78% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 83% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT062000-00 | direct contract | 82.0¢ | 83.0¢ | 82.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 9s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 78.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
61%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0938039) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 68% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 61% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT062000-00 | direct contract | 60.0¢ | 61.0¢ | 60.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 67.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
84%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.7903) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 62% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 84% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT062000-00 | direct contract | 83.0¢ | 84.0¢ | 83.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 62.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
49%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.0744) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 49% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT062000-00 | direct contract | 48.0¢ | 49.0¢ | 48.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
84%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (91.9571) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 76% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 84% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT062000-00 | direct contract | 83.0¢ | 84.0¢ | 83.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 76.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
13%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,365.9717) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT062000-00 | direct contract | 12.0¢ | 14.0¢ | 13.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
61%The chance BNB settles above its target price (779.66) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 44% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 61% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT062000-00 | direct contract | 59.0¢ | 63.0¢ | 61.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 44.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
23%Crypto contracts made up 22.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 6, 2026: about $177 million of the $778 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026, up 23% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).