The snapshot from Oct 6, 7:53 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-07T2147/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 7, 9:47 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
36%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (83,217.57) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 36% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT072200-00 | direct contract | 35.0¢ | 36.0¢ | 35.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
34%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,581.23) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 34% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT072200-00 | direct contract | 33.0¢ | 34.0¢ | 33.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 48.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
46%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4257) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 46% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT072200-00 | direct contract | 45.0¢ | 46.0¢ | 45.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
34%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0891179) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 36% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 34% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT072200-00 | direct contract | 33.0¢ | 34.0¢ | 33.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 36.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
43%The chance Solana settles above its target price (116.2707) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 49% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT072200-00 | direct contract | 42.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 42.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
52%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.3598) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 52% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT072200-00 | direct contract | 51.0¢ | 53.0¢ | 52.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
42%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (88.2894) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 42% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT072200-00 | direct contract | 41.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 41.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
31%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,326.2186) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 31% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT072200-00 | direct contract | 30.0¢ | 31.0¢ | 30.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
29%The chance BNB settles above its target price (773.61) at the end of the window closing 10:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 34% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT072200-00 | direct contract | 28.0¢ | 29.0¢ | 28.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 34.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
25%Crypto contracts made up 25.2% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 7, 2026: about $174 million of the $688 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.7BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 8 to Oct 7, 2026, up 23% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).