The snapshot from Oct 5, 5:10 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1752/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 5:52 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
76%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,912.96) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 42% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 76% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 75.0¢ | 76.0¢ | 75.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 41.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
61%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,715.55) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 61% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 60.0¢ | 61.0¢ | 60.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
60%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5065) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 74% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 60% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 59.0¢ | 60.0¢ | 59.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 73.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
72%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0956266) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 76% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 72% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 71.0¢ | 72.0¢ | 71.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 76.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
67%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.6977) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 38% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 67% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 66.0¢ | 67.0¢ | 66.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 38.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
14%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.284) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 14% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 13.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 14.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
30%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (94.849) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 21% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 30% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 29.0¢ | 31.0¢ | 30.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 21.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
68%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,348.0612) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 68% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 66.0¢ | 70.0¢ | 68.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
51%The chance BNB settles above its target price (786.6) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 42% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 51% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 50.0¢ | 51.0¢ | 50.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 42.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
20%Crypto contracts made up 20.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $186 million of the $933 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).