The snapshot from Oct 5, 4:37 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1710/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 5:10 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
15%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,791.7) at the end of the window closing 5:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 20% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 15% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051715-15 | direct contract | 14.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 14.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 20.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
7%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,713.14) at the end of the window closing 5:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 24% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 7% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051715-15 | direct contract | 7.3¢ | 7.6¢ | 7.45¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 23.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
24%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5054) at the end of the window closing 5:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 11% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 24% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051715-15 | direct contract | 23.0¢ | 24.0¢ | 23.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 11.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
15%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0956582) at the end of the window closing 5:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 29% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 15% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051715-15 | direct contract | 14.0¢ | 16.0¢ | 15.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 29.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
76%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.6502) at the end of the window closing 5:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 76% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051715-15 | direct contract | 75.0¢ | 77.0¢ | 76.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
97%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.2457) at the end of the window closing 5:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051715-15 | direct contract | 96.7¢ | 96.8¢ | 96.75¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
43%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (94.8156) at the end of the window closing 5:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 57% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051715-15 | direct contract | 42.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 42.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 57.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
84%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,346.1298) at the end of the window closing 5:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 84% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051715-15 | direct contract | 83.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 84.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
1%The chance BNB settles above its target price (787.99) at the end of the window closing 5:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 3% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051715-15 | direct contract | 1.0¢ | 1.5¢ | 1.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 3.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
20%Crypto contracts made up 20.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $186 million of the $933 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).