The snapshot from Oct 5, 4:33 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1745/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 5:45 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
45%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,912.96) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 45% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 44.0¢ | 45.0¢ | 44.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 47.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
Ethereum’s 15-minute window closing 5:45 PM ET (target price 2,713.56) has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “Ethereum’s 15-minute window closing 5:45 PM ET has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051745-45 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | closed | Contract ↗ |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
52%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5065) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 52% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 51.0¢ | 52.0¢ | 51.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
52%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0956266) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 52% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 51.0¢ | 52.0¢ | 51.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
58%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.6977) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 58% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 57.0¢ | 58.0¢ | 57.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
43%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.284) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051800-00 | direct contract | 42.0¢ | 44.0¢ | 43.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
Hyperliquid’s 15-minute window closing 5:45 PM ET (target price 94.6856) has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “Hyperliquid’s 15-minute window closing 5:45 PM ET has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051745-45 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | closed | Contract ↗ |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
Zcash’s 15-minute window closing 5:45 PM ET (target price 1,346.9149) has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “Zcash’s 15-minute window closing 5:45 PM ET has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051745-45 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | closed | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
BNB’s 15-minute window closing 5:45 PM ET (target price 786.52) has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “BNB’s 15-minute window closing 5:45 PM ET has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051745-45 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | closed | Contract ↗ |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
20%Crypto contracts made up 20.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $186 million of the $933 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).