The snapshot from Oct 5, 4:21 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1633/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 4:33 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
48%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,770.8) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 49% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 48% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051645-45 | direct contract | 47.0¢ | 48.0¢ | 47.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 8s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
67%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,711.34) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 67% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051645-45 | direct contract | 66.0¢ | 67.0¢ | 66.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 8s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
80%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5036) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 51% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 80% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051645-45 | direct contract | 79.0¢ | 80.0¢ | 79.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 8s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 51.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
65%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0957426) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 47% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 65% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051645-45 | direct contract | 64.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 64.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 8s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 47.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
54%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.2298) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 54% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051645-45 | direct contract | 53.0¢ | 55.0¢ | 54.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 8s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
76%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.1898) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 76% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051645-45 | direct contract | 75.0¢ | 77.0¢ | 76.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 8s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
66%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (94.35) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 66% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051645-45 | direct contract | 65.0¢ | 66.0¢ | 65.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
74%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,338.2586) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 74% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051645-45 | direct contract | 73.0¢ | 75.0¢ | 74.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
65%The chance BNB settles above its target price (788.03) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 66% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 65% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051645-45 | direct contract | 63.0¢ | 66.0¢ | 64.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 66.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
18%Crypto contracts made up 17.9% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $185 million of the $1031 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).