The snapshot from Oct 5, 3:36 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1621/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 4:21 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
94%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,679.51) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 82% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 94% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051630-30 | direct contract | 93.9¢ | 94.0¢ | 93.95¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 82.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
95%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,707.29) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 70% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051630-30 | direct contract | 94.7¢ | 95.3¢ | 95.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 70.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
90%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.503) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 62% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 90% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051630-30 | direct contract | 89.0¢ | 90.0¢ | 89.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 61.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
90%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0957214) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 57% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 90% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051630-30 | direct contract | 90.1¢ | 90.3¢ | 90.20¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 57.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
92%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.1852) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 92% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051630-30 | direct contract | 91.4¢ | 91.6¢ | 91.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
39%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.2181) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 39% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051630-30 | direct contract | 37.0¢ | 40.0¢ | 38.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
87%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (94.4045) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 78% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 87% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051630-30 | direct contract | 86.0¢ | 88.0¢ | 87.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 78.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
52%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,340.597) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 52% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051630-30 | direct contract | 50.0¢ | 53.0¢ | 51.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
89%The chance BNB settles above its target price (787.52) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 66% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 89% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051630-30 | direct contract | 88.0¢ | 89.0¢ | 88.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 3s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 66.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
18%Crypto contracts made up 17.9% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $185 million of the $1031 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).