The snapshot from Oct 5, 2:42 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1536/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 3:36 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
38%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,731.12) at the end of the window closing 3:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 46% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 38% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051545-45 | direct contract | 37.0¢ | 38.0¢ | 37.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 46.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
35%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,709.94) at the end of the window closing 3:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 56% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 35% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051545-45 | direct contract | 34.0¢ | 35.0¢ | 34.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 55.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
19%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5023) at the end of the window closing 3:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 19% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051545-45 | direct contract | 18.0¢ | 20.0¢ | 19.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
21%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.095339) at the end of the window closing 3:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 51% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 21% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051545-45 | direct contract | 20.0¢ | 21.0¢ | 20.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 51.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
23%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.1195) at the end of the window closing 3:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 49% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 23% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051545-45 | direct contract | 22.0¢ | 23.0¢ | 22.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
86%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.1824) at the end of the window closing 3:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 86% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051545-45 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 87.0¢ | 85.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
63%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.5546) at the end of the window closing 3:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 53% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 63% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051545-45 | direct contract | 62.0¢ | 63.0¢ | 62.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 53.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
85%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,330.5876) at the end of the window closing 3:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051545-45 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 85.0¢ | 84.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
13%The chance BNB settles above its target price (787.06) at the end of the window closing 3:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 46% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051545-45 | direct contract | 12.0¢ | 14.0¢ | 13.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 46.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
17%Crypto contracts made up 16.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $182 million of the $1083 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).