The snapshot from Oct 5, 1:55 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1442/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 2:42 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
57%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,579.27) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 72% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 57% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051445-45 | direct contract | 56.0¢ | 57.0¢ | 56.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 71.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
18%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,708.92) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 22% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 18% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051445-45 | direct contract | 17.0¢ | 18.0¢ | 17.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 21.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
3%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5001) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 3% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051445-45 | direct contract | 3.1¢ | 3.7¢ | 3.40¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
1%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0948332) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 42% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051445-45 | direct contract | 1.0¢ | 1.6¢ | 1.30¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 41.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
6%The chance Solana settles above its target price (120.0573) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 56% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 6% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051445-45 | direct contract | 5.6¢ | 5.9¢ | 5.75¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 56.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
98%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.1141) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 98% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051445-45 | direct contract | 97.3¢ | 98.7¢ | 98.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
<1%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.5829) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 2% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a <1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051445-45 | direct contract | 0.2¢ | 0.4¢ | 0.30¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 1.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
13%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,330.9537) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051445-45 | direct contract | 11.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 13.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
23%The chance BNB settles above its target price (786.96) at the end of the window closing 2:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 30% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 23% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051445-45 | direct contract | 22.0¢ | 23.0¢ | 22.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 2s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 29.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
16%Crypto contracts made up 16.1% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $180 million of the $1123 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).