The snapshot from Oct 5, 1:39 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1355/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 1:55 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
84%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,319.11) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 42% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 84% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051400-00 | direct contract | 83.0¢ | 84.0¢ | 83.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 15s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 41.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
96%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,699.95) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 70% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 96% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051400-00 | direct contract | 96.2¢ | 96.4¢ | 96.30¢ | midpoint | fresh · 15s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 69.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
86%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4941) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 64% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 86% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051400-00 | direct contract | 85.0¢ | 86.0¢ | 85.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 15s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 63.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
48%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0946401) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 40% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 48% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051400-00 | direct contract | 47.0¢ | 48.0¢ | 47.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 15s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 39.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
91%The chance Solana settles above its target price (119.8612) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 91% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051400-00 | direct contract | 90.5¢ | 91.3¢ | 90.90¢ | midpoint | fresh · 15s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 48.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.0228) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051400-00 | direct contract | 99.5¢ | 99.6¢ | 99.55¢ | midpoint | fresh · 15s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
46%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.7327) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 59% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 46% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051400-00 | direct contract | 45.0¢ | 47.0¢ | 46.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 59.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
95%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,313.7434) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051400-00 | direct contract | 94.3¢ | 95.9¢ | 95.10¢ | midpoint | fresh · 15s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
71%The chance BNB settles above its target price (786.32) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 28% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 71% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051400-00 | direct contract | 70.0¢ | 72.0¢ | 71.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 0s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 28.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
15%Crypto contracts made up 15.4% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $179 million of the $1161 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).