The snapshot from Oct 5, 1:15 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1339/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 1:39 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
15%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,366.38) at the end of the window closing 1:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 26% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 15% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051345-45 | direct contract | 14.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 14.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 26.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
17%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,700.22) at the end of the window closing 1:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 38% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 17% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051345-45 | direct contract | 16.0¢ | 17.0¢ | 16.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 38.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
18%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4955) at the end of the window closing 1:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 23% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 18% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051345-45 | direct contract | 17.0¢ | 18.0¢ | 17.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 23.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
29%Last trade
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0946083) at the end of the window closing 1:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051345-45 | direct contract | 29.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 42.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
16%Last trade
The chance Solana settles above its target price (119.9292) at the end of the window closing 1:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 16% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051345-45 | direct contract | 16.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 19s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 28.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
17%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.0254) at the end of the window closing 1:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 17% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051345-45 | direct contract | 16.0¢ | 17.0¢ | 16.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
56%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.3833) at the end of the window closing 1:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 34% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 56% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051345-45 | direct contract | 55.0¢ | 56.0¢ | 55.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 33.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
71%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,307.5105) at the end of the window closing 1:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 71% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051345-45 | direct contract | 70.0¢ | 71.0¢ | 70.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
13%The chance BNB settles above its target price (786.94) at the end of the window closing 1:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 12% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051345-45 | direct contract | 12.0¢ | 13.0¢ | 12.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 30s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 12.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
15%Crypto contracts made up 15.4% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $179 million of the $1161 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).