The snapshot from Oct 5, 11:49 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1218/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 12:18 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
25%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,238.81) at the end of the window closing 12:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 25% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051230-30 | direct contract | 24.0¢ | 25.0¢ | 24.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
11%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,696.39) at the end of the window closing 12:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 11% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051230-30 | direct contract | 10.0¢ | 11.0¢ | 10.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
28%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4945) at the end of the window closing 12:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 42% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 28% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051230-30 | direct contract | 27.0¢ | 29.0¢ | 28.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 42.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
22%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0946878) at the end of the window closing 12:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 22% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051230-30 | direct contract | 21.0¢ | 22.0¢ | 21.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
29%The chance Solana settles above its target price (119.4255) at the end of the window closing 12:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 47% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051230-30 | direct contract | 28.0¢ | 29.0¢ | 28.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 47.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
47%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.9847) at the end of the window closing 12:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 47% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051230-30 | direct contract | 46.0¢ | 48.0¢ | 47.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
33%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (92.8185) at the end of the window closing 12:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 33% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051230-30 | direct contract | 32.0¢ | 34.0¢ | 33.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
29%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,293.6564) at the end of the window closing 12:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051230-30 | direct contract | 28.0¢ | 29.0¢ | 28.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
21%The chance BNB settles above its target price (787.51) at the end of the window closing 12:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 38% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 21% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051230-30 | direct contract | 19.0¢ | 22.0¢ | 20.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 37.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
15%Crypto contracts made up 14.9% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $176 million of the $1179 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).