The snapshot from Oct 5, 12:18 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1248/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 12:48 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
67%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,164.11) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 67% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051300-00 | direct contract | 66.0¢ | 67.0¢ | 66.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
68%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,688.99) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 68% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051300-00 | direct contract | 67.0¢ | 68.0¢ | 67.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
74%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4889) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 74% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051300-00 | direct contract | 73.0¢ | 75.0¢ | 74.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
70%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0942097) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 62% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 70% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051300-00 | direct contract | 69.0¢ | 70.0¢ | 69.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 62.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
82%The chance Solana settles above its target price (119.2538) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 82% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051300-00 | direct contract | 81.0¢ | 82.0¢ | 81.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
83%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.0029) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 83% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051300-00 | direct contract | 82.0¢ | 83.0¢ | 82.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 1s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
57%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (92.8858) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 57% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051300-00 | direct contract | 56.0¢ | 58.0¢ | 57.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 47.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
82%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,289.0832) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 82% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051300-00 | direct contract | 81.0¢ | 83.0¢ | 82.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 8s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
58%The chance BNB settles above its target price (787.22) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 49% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 58% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051300-00 | direct contract | 57.0¢ | 58.0¢ | 57.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
15%Crypto contracts made up 14.9% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $176 million of the $1179 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.6BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 21% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).