The snapshot from Oct 4, 10:03 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-05T1149/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 5, 11:49 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
55%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (85,311.71) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 55% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT051200-00 | direct contract | 54.0¢ | 55.0¢ | 54.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 19s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
48%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,699.38) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 48% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT051200-00 | direct contract | 47.0¢ | 48.0¢ | 47.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 19s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 51.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
42%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.4947) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 57% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 42% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT051200-00 | direct contract | 41.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 42.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 19s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 57.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
54%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0946068) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 54% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 54% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT051200-00 | direct contract | 53.0¢ | 55.0¢ | 54.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 14s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 53.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
51%The chance Solana settles above its target price (119.4053) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 56% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 51% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT051200-00 | direct contract | 50.0¢ | 51.0¢ | 50.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 14s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 55.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
87%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.0048) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 87% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT051200-00 | direct contract | 85.0¢ | 88.0¢ | 86.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 14s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
70%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (92.8162) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 58% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 70% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT051200-00 | direct contract | 69.0¢ | 70.0¢ | 69.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 58.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
47%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,299.8896) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 47% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT051200-00 | direct contract | 46.0¢ | 47.0¢ | 46.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
43%The chance BNB settles above its target price (787.77) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 46% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT051200-00 | direct contract | 42.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 42.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 12s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 46.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
15%Crypto contracts made up 14.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 5, 2026: about $174 million of the $1191 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$4.5BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 5 to Oct 4, 2026, up 20% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).